Identifying Sleepers - Wide Receivers

  Posted 8/17 by Jeff Tefertiller, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

As we all know, fantasy players are constantly searching for the next sleeper. Each wants to be the one that discovers the great player that his leaguemates have never heard of. This is the fourth and last article in the series that explores how to find sleepers in your fantasy league. We will examine sleepers at the wide receiver position. Since every league is different, this series will concentrate purely on standard scoring, 12-team leagues. The methodology of looking for sleepers will be the same for wide receivers as it was for the quarterback and running back positions. In addition, we will try to find players that meet at least one, hopefully several, of these rules. Below is the list that will be employed to identify sleepers:

• A player cannot be considered a sleeper if you never would start the player given any circumstance in a normal league.


• The potential sleeper must be able to produce at least two starting levels higher than pick used (i.e., WR5 has to have ability and situation to produce at WR3 level, if not better). There is no need drafting a back as RB4 on your team that can only hope to attain RB3 status. For Quarterbacks, one starting level is enough.


• The very best sleepers have to rely on few other things to happen. A NFL RB2, who only needs one injury (or to outplay one player) is more attractive than one who is a RB3 or even RB4, regardless of talent.


• Every sleeper is judged purely based on potential outcome versus pick used. This is relatively simple, it is a matter of risk versus reward.


• Fantasy owners need to look for anything that has changed in situation: changing teams, changes in personnel in front of player, changing in coaches, etc. .


• One key for future breakout can be the points per game stats for an injured player from the year before.

Now, let's get started on looking for sleepers at the wide receiver position. We will look at these wideouts according to their draft position (ADP). Since most leagues start 36 or 48 receivers each week, we will only consider pass catchers outside of the Top 60 at the position. The focus will be on identifying sleeper candidates that have the ability to be a fantasy WR3, or better.

1. Steve Smith played well during the playoff run for the New York Giants. Smith is a very good possession receiver that knows how to get open. He only tallied eight receptions during the regular season, but had 14 grabs in the playoffs. Smith saw more targets in the playoffs because Jeremy Shockey was sidelined with injury. Now, Shockey is in New Orleans, leaving Smith ample opportunity to produce quality fantasy numbers. The former second round pick from USC should start as the slot receiver for the Giants. If anything were to happen to either aging veteran Amani Toomer or Plaxico Burress, Smith would catapult into the Top 30 fantasy wideouts. With an ADP of WR60, the 195th player overall, Steve Smith has the ability to eclipse his ADP. If anything happens to Toomer or Burress, Smith should be an every-week fantasy starter.


2. Muhsin Muhammad returns to Carolina and is reunited with quarterback Jake Delhomme. Many remember Muhammad's last season as a Panther (2004) when he finished as the top fantasy receiver. Then, the former Michigan State star took the big money and left for the Windy City. The Bears' passing game was not conducive to the veteran's production. The Panthers also signed former Seahawk D.J. Hackett to bolster the receiving corps. Also, Hackett has had issues staying healthy throughout his young career and this season has gone the same course. After a fight with a teammate, superstar Steve Smith is suspended for the first two games of the season. Muhsin is being drafted as WR64 and player 206 overall. To illustrate how low that ADP is for the veteran, during a miserable year in 2007 with Rex Grossman (and others) under center, the former Spartan still managed a WR63 finish with only 40 receptions. He has only had one season since 2003 outside of the top 37 fantasy wideouts (and that was last year). This includes the top finish in 2004. Muhsin Muhammad is being drafted after the sexier Hackett, but is expected to start opposite Steve Smith, with Hackett in the slot. So, fantasy owners get a starting receiver in a good offense for the price of a very late pick. Further, Muhammad will be the "go to" guy for Delhomme the first two weeks of the season while Smith serves his suspension.


3. Antwaan Randle El enters the season as the forgotten receiver in Jim Zorn's new offense. Fantasy owners are doing themselves a disservice if they assume that ARE's role and production will be the same as it was in Joe Gibbs' offense. If the first preseason game was any indication, the former quarterback at Indiana will be a vital part of the Redskin offense. His ADP is currently WR70 and the 213th pick in the draft. The Washington offense is one that will surprise through the air. The team did draft two rookies, Devin Thomas and Malcolm Kelly, but they have been slowed by injuries. Randle El has the potential to be an every week fantasy starter in this offense. He offers good reward for the risk.


4. James Jones made a lot of plays for the Green Bay Packers in 2007. The second-year pro from San Jose State will be the WR3 for the Packers. If anything were to happen to either Donald Driver or Greg Jennings, Jones could immediately vault into a Top 24 fantasy receiver. The former third round pick caught 47 passes as a rookie and looks to better that number in his second season. James Jones has tremendous potential for fantasy owners at a reasonable price. His ADP is WR74, player 224 overall. As a WR7 for a fantasy team, Jones has the potential to be a top wideout if something were to happen to one of the Packers' top duo at the position.


5. There is one receiver that is drafted just before the WR60 mark that is a great sleeper candidate. Jabar Gaffney steps into the role he and Donte Stallworth shared in 2007. The two receivers combined for 125 pass targets, 82 receptions, 1,146 yards, and eight scores. It is unreasonable to think the former Gator will get the entire 125 targets. He should lose some to Chad Jackson. But, as it stands now, Gaffney is comfortably leading the competition with Jackson. With an ADP of WR54 and player 157 overall, Jabar Gaffney offers huge upside at a very reasonable price. If fantasy owners want insurance, Jackson is available with the 260th overall pick. Together, they are a very attractive WR3 or WR4 for fantasy owners at a much cheaper price. In fact, those combined numbers from last season would equate to a high-end fantasy WR2.

Sleepers appear at the Wide Receiver position more than any other. As a rookie, Anquan Boldin finished as the WR4 with a WR88 ADP. David Patten came out of nowhere to be the 42nd ranked receiver last season. But, in both situations, each could have been identified using the above criteria. Whether for the players listed above, or not, fantasy owners can utilize the above rules to identify sleepers.