Identifying Sleepers - Quarterbacks

  Posted 8/14 by Jeff Tefertiller, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

Fantasy players are always on the lookout for the next emerging sleeper candidate. We all want to be the one that discovers the next great player. This is the second installment of a series that explores how to find sleepers in your fantasy league. We will examine sleepers at the quarterback position. Since every league is different, this series will concentrate purely on standard scoring, 12-team leagues. The methodology of looking for sleepers will be the same for all of the positions. In addition, we will try to find players that meet at least one, hopefully several, of these rules. Below is the list that will be employed to identify sleepers:

• A player cannot be considered a sleeper if you never would start the player given any circumstance in a normal league.
• The potential sleeper must be able to produce at least two starting levels higher than pick used (i.e., WR5 has to have ability and situation to produce at WR3 level, if not better). There is no need drafting a back as RB4 on your team that can only hope to attain RB3 status. For Quarterbacks, one starting level is enough.
• The very best sleepers have to rely on few other things to happen. A NFL RB2, who only needs one injury (or to outplay one player) is more attractive than one who is a RB3 or even RB4, regardless of talent.
• Every sleeper is judged purely based on potential outcome versus pick used. This is relatively simple, it is a matter of risk versus reward.
• Fantasy owners need to look for anything that has changed in situation: changing teams, changes in personnel in front of player, changing in coaches, etc. .
• One key for future breakout can be the points per game stats for an injured player from the year before.

Now, let's get started on looking for sleepers at the quarterback position. We will break these down by their draft position (ADP), and look at the options. First, let's look fantasy QB2s that are not drafted in the top 15 passers. Three potential sleepers jump off the page. We will only consider those that are capable of landing in the Top 12 at season's end.

1. Matt Schaub fits a couple of the categories above. He is coming off an injury-shortened season. The 27 year old from Virginia only played in 11 games in 2007 after coming over from Atlanta. The Texans took a gamble in trading for Michael Vick's backup, but it has paid off. He finished as the 23rd ranked fantasy passer last season even though he missed five games. In addition, Schaub exited three games early with injury. Currently, Matt Schaub is being drafted as the QB16, player 107 overall. Andre Johnson is back healthy after missing seven games last season. With Andre Johnson in the Texan lineup, fantasy owners should feel comfortable inserting the former Virginia Cavalier into fantasy lineups. If Johnson can stay healthy this season, Schaub has a good chance to finish as a fantasy QB1. Even if the stud receiver from Miami does miss time, Matt Schaub can still eclipse his ADP. He is in a good situation with Gary Kubiak leading the offense.
2. Aaron Rodgers steps into a HUGE shadow. It is very difficult following a legend like number four. The former first round pick from Cal is still a relative unknown after sitting behind Favre and that is affecting his draft position. Although being drafted in 2005, the strong-armed passer obviously never started a game while Favre was in town. Rodgers is currently being drafted as QB17, player 109 overall. So, why be high on Rodgers? He steps into a situation with a very strong receiving corps made up of Donald Driver, Greg Jennings, and James Jones. The Packers have a strong offensive line. Also, Ryan Grants anchors a good running game. Brett Favre finished as the 8th ranked fantasy quarterback in 2007 and a Top 12 finish is very attainable for Aaron Rodgers.
3. Jason Campbell finished as the 17th ranked fantasy passer in 2007. The 26 year old from Auburn was drafted with the 25th overall pick in the 2006 NFL Draft. Jason Campbell has only played in 20 games in his two NFL seasons. Campbell is an ideal sleeper with an ADP of QB20 and player 133 overall. This means that the strong-armed quarterback is being taken as a low-end backup. What a great value play. So, why is Jason Campbell a sleeper candidate? First of all, the Washington Redskins changed Head Coaches from run-oriented Joe Gibbs to pass-happy Jim Zorn. In addition, Washington drafted two very good wide receiver prospects. Devin Thomas and Malcolm Kelly look to be future stars in the NFL. They will beef up a receiver corps of Santana Moss and Randel El Jason Campbell gets an improved offensive scheme and upgraded receivers. This is the type of situation that screams "sleeper". He just needs to improve under Zorn's direction and stay healthy.

The last group of potential sleepers at the quarterback position are ones drafted as fantasy QB3s but have a chance to produce at a Top 15 level. This would translate into being a good spot starter to cover bye weeks or injury. Since these quarterbacks are drafted as a fantasy QB3, it means that this player is drafted for upside only. The sleeper status is based purely on the ability to produce strong fantasy numbers if given the opportunity. If your fantasy team has two quarterbacks that are NFL starters, this QB3 needs to be focused more on upside than current situation.

1. Kurt Warner is a marvel at his age. He still has the accurate passing with a quick release and deft touch. The former Arena star finished as the QB10 in 2007. I know that is a surprise to many. Warner is currently competing with youngster Matt Leinart for the starting job. Leinart has struggled as a pro and has failed to live up to expectations since being drafted from USC. The competition is reported to be close, leaving Warner as a great value play. Even with the great season last year, Warner is being drafted as QB28, player 201 overall.
2. Matt Moore played well after getting a chance in 2007. Moore is so underrated that he does not even have an ADP. Yes, this is the same former Oregon State star that performed well in the ten games he appeared in as a rookie. Moore backs up Jake Delhomme who is coming off of a nasty "Tommy john" injury and surgery. While Delhomme has looked healthy so far, it is way too early to assume he can last the full season. In addition, the Carolina Panthers upgraded their receiving corps in a big way. They signed Muhsin Muhammad and D.J. Hackett to keep defenses from focusing too much on Steve Smith.
3. Brady Quinn was drafted with high expectations in the 2007 NFL Draft. The Cleveland Browns traded up in order to take the former Golden Domer. The offense has plenty of weapons. Braylon Edwards emerged to take a huge step forward last season. The team still has Kellen Winslow's son at tight end and Jamal Lewis at running back. The Browns also added Donte Stallworth to take over for the oft-injured Joe Jurevicius. Stallworth is a big upgrade over the aging veteran. Derek Anderson tailed off at the end of the 2007 season, leaving some to hope that Brady Quinn might get an opportunity in 2008. If given the chance, Quinn has a chance at being a top fantasy passer in this offense.

Fantasy owners are advised to take a chance on a sleeper quarterback as a fantasy QB2 or QB3. Sleeper passers are great risks to take. If the sleeper QB excels, it takes the pressure off of having to "hit" on the fantasy starter. Sleeper quarterbacks will emerge during the season and one or two will come from the waiver wire. But, if a fantasy owner wants to draft and stash a sleeper quarterback, follow the criteria listed above.