Identifying Sleepers - Get the Paddles

Posted 8/14 by Jeff Tefertiller, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

One of the toughest things for fantasy owners is to identify sleepers. What players can I draft that can substantially outplay their draft position (ADP)? Well, there are indicators as to which players might be left for dead and which might be great opportunities to succeed. This is the first article in a series that will look at the Quarterback, Running Back, and Wide Receiver positions. We will use a specific list of criteria in order evaluate sleepers. These are general rules and should be taken as such. We will try to find as many players that fit multiple categories. The same list of rules will be applied to all three positions and are applicable for each.

All leagues are not created equal. There are all types of fantasy leagues. Some have large starting lineups. Some employ 10 teams and some 16 teams. Even some leagues utilize an odd scoring system. Given the difficulty in appeasing all of the varieties of leagues, this series will focus on standard 12 team leagues with standard scoring. Since these rules are general, the methodology should work for all leagues.

In order to detect and identify sleepers, we must what we are looking for. The criteria will give us key indicators of things to keep an eye out for for when seeking sleeper prospects. Below are some of the situations to examine when looking for a sleeper or breakout candidate:

A player cannot be considered a sleeper if you never would start the player given any circumstance in a normal league. Some of the players that come to mind are Rex Grossman, Roscoe Parrish or Devard Darling. There are many, many others that fit into this category. I would be hard-pressed to think of any string of events that would make me desperate enough to insert one of these players into my fantasy team's lineup. With these guys, there will be players that are better options on the waiver wire, so no need to take in a draft. We all can name several players at every position that would never start a game in fantasy football no matter what.
The potential sleeper must be able to produce at least two starting levels higher than pick used for RB and WR, and one for QB (i.e., WR5 has to have ability and situation to produce at WR3 level, if not better). There is no need drafting a back as RB4 on your team that can only hope to attain RB3 status. Warrick Dunn and Tatum Bell come to mind. These two backs have no shot at being a Top 35 rusher in 2008. This is where the risk/reward comes into play. If the player does not have the talent or situation to produce at a high level, let someone else draft him. When drafting a WR5 or WR6, there is no reason to take a guy that cannot put up WR3 numbers if given the right scenario. One player I like in this category is Dominic Rhodes. If anything happened to Joseph Addai, Rhodes would be first in line for the Colts. This would immediately make him a RB2 candidate with a price tag of RB60.
The very best sleepers have to rely on few other things to happen. A NFL RB2, who only needs one injury (or to outplay one player) is more attractive than one who is a RB3 or even RB4, regardless of talent. Tim Hightower becomes attractive because he looks to be the lone beneficiary if something happens to Edgerrin James. Hightower is a better sleeper option (at a cheaper price) than Pierre Thomas and Derrick Ward because each would share carries no matter what happens. Many great sleeper opportunities come from situations where the starting job is up for grabs. In these cases, many times the lower ranked of the two in competition emerges as the sleeper at a great price. We will examine the situation closer in a future article, but Maurice Morris is prime example of this criteria. He and Julius Jones are battling to be the starting running back for the Seattle Seahawks. Morris is going several rounds after Jones.
Every sleeper is judged purely based on potential outcome versus pick used. This is relatively simple. When judging the sleeper upside of a player, it becomes a matter of pick used (ADP) versus what the player can achieve. It is a matter of risk versus reward.
We will attempt to identify sleepers at different levels. Many times, fantasy owners look for sleepers that are outside of the Top 50 at the position. There is little risk in the pick, but offers a slim chance of reward. In the subsequent articles, we will examine sleepers of differing ADPs, each with a different risk and reward for the fantasy owner.
Fantasy owners need to look for anything that has changed in situation: changing teams, changes in personnel in front of player, changing in coaches, etc. This is one of the biggest keys to finding sleepers. A change in any variable could alter the situation from one to avoid to one that is favorable. Fantasy owners are encouraged to look for changes in team personnel and coaching staff. The passing games in San Francisco and Washington should be given extra consideration change in offensive philosophy. In addition, fantasy owners should pay close attention to Muhsin Muhammad this season. He goes from a horrid offense in 2007 to a key member of the Carolina Panthers. With Steve Smith missing the first two games of the year, Muhammad will be relied upon early in the season.
Pay attention to points per game stats for an injured player from the year before. This is another of my favorite things to look for in identifying sleepers. One such player that jumps out to me is L.J. Smith. He was the ninth ranked tight end in 2005 and 2006. In 2007, he battled injury all season. Now, Smith is being drafted outside of the Top 15 tight ends even though he is proven and the offense stayed the same. Larry Johnson is another player that played well before injury. After playing at a high level for the 2006 season and part of the 2007 season, the former backup to Priest Holmes is not drafted as the tenth back off the board. There are other examples of this phenomena like Derrick Ward and even Donte Stallworth.

These rules will help us locate and identify sleeper candidates. There will be three more articles in the series, one each for Quarterbacks, Running Backs, and Wide Receivers. The next installment will address the Quarterback position. Since most leagues start just 12 passers a week, we will focus on fantasy options that have a chance to start, and produce big numbers when they do.