Examining Rookie Performance - The 2008 WRs

  Updated 7/16 by Jeff Tefertiller, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

Now that we have established that taking a first-year wide receiver is a losing proposition most of the time, it is time we turn our sights on the 2008 NFL Draft Class. In the last article, we analyzed why it is difficult for rookie receivers to produce good fantasy points. There were only five wideouts that finished in the Top 24, fantasy WR2, during the last six seasons. Three of those were by pass catchers drafted as fantasy WR6 or worse.

Just to recap, the receivers drafted as fantasy starters (WR36 or better) failed miserably. These first-year players were drafted at an average of WR25 and finished the season as WR51. This includes the phenom, Calvin Johnson. The rookie from Georgia Tech was drafted as WR19 last season. Many had high hopes for him in the Martz offense. He ended the season as WR35. Ironically, the future superstar finished as third best receiver on the Lions, behind Shaun McDonald and Roy Williams. What else did we gain from the first article? Most of the rookie receivers that made an impact were in the top five first-year receivers taken by fantasy owners.

The previous article on the topic of the wide receiver position examined players drafted in the Top 10 in the NFL Draft and those drafted in the First Round of the NFL Draft. Looking at the table below, we notice that the receivers taken in the top ten picks of the draft performed worse than any other category. The first round players performed the best of the categories even while underachieving. But, let's think about this for a moment. If on average the first round picks outperformed the top ten picks, then it must mean that those taken in the first round after pick eleven performed best. This group outperformed the average. There were no second day (fourth round or later) picks that had a reasonable ADP during the time span for this study.

The 2007 draft class was heralded as a strong class for incoming wide receivers. They disappointed badly. Only Dwayne Bowe outperformed his ADP. To illustrate how poorly the class fared, the collective ADP was WR50. They finished with an average of WR104. That is a huge let down. Maybe it does not seem accurate, but let's remember how highly Dwayne Jarrett and Robert Meachem were drafted and how they each barely set foot on a playing field. Both were drafted as fantasy WR4 for their teams, but disappointed. This is not uncommon for rookie wide receivers. Many are taken with high hopes, but fail to meet the expectation level. Since we have looked at how past draft classes have performed, let us now turn our sights toward the 2008 NFL Draft class. Each rookie wide receiver fitting the criteria of the study is detailed below. Situation, Draft Selection and ADP are included for a well-rounded look. One interesting factor is that since no receivers were selected in the first round of April's Draft, the past averages are not relevant. But, this class will still perform similar to past ones. A slight few will perform well while others disappoint. This is the main constant. But, which ones will excel? We will try to decipher that answer below.

• Donnie Avery was the first wide receiver taken in the draft. The St. Louis Rams took the speedy little pass catcher with the 33rd overall, the second pick of the second round. Avery will line up in the slot for the Rams to start his career. Marc Bulger will have Torry Holt and Drew Bennett as starting wideouts. The team will rely on its running game anchored by Steven Jackson. Avery has an ADP of WR59. He is being drafted ahead of Ronald Curry, Drew Bennett, Darrell Jackson and Jabar Gaffney. While the rookie from Houston has blazing speed, and the ability to make plays, there is no reason for Avery to be drafted in front of these four pass catchers. All have more upside for the 2008 season.
• Devin Thomas excelled for one season at Michigan State. The Washington Redskins drafted Thomas with the third pick of the second round, pick 34 overall. The athletic wideout will compete for pass targets with fellow rookie Malcolm Kelly and speedy veteran Santana Moss. Thomas has the ability to be a top wideout for many years and has a chance to produce as a rookie. Currently, Devin is being drafted as WR47, in front of Mark Clayton and Isaac Bruce. Both are solid veterans in improving situations. Thomas is a risk at this draft spot, but it could pay off in a huge way. The former Spartan has a good chance to start from game one.
• Jordy Nelson was drafted by the Green bay Packers with the fifth pick of the second round, selection 36 overall. The former Kansas State Wildcat is deftly quick and runs solid routes. The issue with Nelson is purely situation. He was drafted to be the fourth wide receiver for the Packers. He is presently drafted as WR70, in place of David Patten and Kevin Walter. Both of these choices are starters for good offenses and are much better options as a fantasy WR6. Nelson should enjoy a long and productive career, but not in his initial season.
• James Hardy dominated the Big 10 with his size and ability to make the red zone catch. The Buffalo Bills selected the former Hoosier with the tenth pick of the second round, the 41st overall pick. The tall wideout was not drafted in the best of situations. The Bills struggle producing fantasy points through the air. Hardy is now drafted as WR38, ahead of some very good options in good offenses like Reggie Brown, Derrick Mason, and. Joey Galloway. All three of these options are more attractive than the Bills WR2.
• Eddie Royal is a threat as a receiver and as a returner. The Broncos took the speedy Royal with the 42nd overall pick, the eleventh selection of the second round. If he can improve his routes and display his playmaking ability, there is a chance that Eddie Royal will see the field often. The Broncos have a lot of uncertainty at the receiver position with the troubles of Brandon Marshall, the oft-injured Darrell Jackson, and the underperforming Kerry Colbert. Royal is currently being drafted as a WR90 in fantasy drafts. He is as good as any for that pick. All of the wideouts in that tier are high risk, high reward players. If your rosters are deep enough, Eddie Royal is a good chance to take.
• Jerome Simpson excelled at Coastal Carolina. He now has to prove that he can play with the big boys in the NFL. Simpson was taken by the Cincinnati Bengals with the fifteenth pick of the second round, selection 46 overall. With the departure of Chris Henry, the third receiver position is void of talent. The Bengals tried to address the need by selecting both Simpson and Andre Caldwell in the draft. The uncertainty of Chad Johnson also may open the door for Simpson to see more snaps. He currently has an ADP of W72 in front of David Patten and Kevin Walter. Jerome Simpson is a great player to take the gamble on if your fantasy team has solid starting receivers and depth. Simpson is a good player to stash. The situation can easily produce a top fantasy pass catcher.
• DeSean Jackson is another dual threat receiver and returner. He has speed to burn. The former Cal Bear was drafted by the Philadelphia Eagles with the 49th overall pick, the eighteenth choice of the second round. He was drafted to make plays on a team that needs playmakers. With an ADP of WR60, Jackson is another receiver that has a solid chance of outperforming his draft pick. But, some of the other options available are more appealing. Starting wideouts like Ronald Curry, Drew Bennett, Darrell Jackson, and Jabar Gaffney all seem to be better fantasy options in 2008.
• Malcolm Kelly made plays while at the University of Oklahoma. He would have been drafted higher but there were serious concerns about the former Sooner's speed and attitude. The Washington Redskins took a chance on Kelly, drafting him along with fellow rookie, Devin Thomas. Washington took Kelly with the twentieth pick of the second round, player 51 overall. It appears as though Kelly will have to play very well just to step on the field. Kelly has an ADP of WR55. This is way too high for a WR3 at best for the Redskins. To make it worse, Kelly is being drafted ahead of James Jones who is also a WR3, but in a much better offense.
• Limas Sweed made some acrobatic catches while at the University of Texas. The former Longhorn is a gifted receiver, much in the same mold as fellow Texas player, Roy Williams. The Pittsburgh Steelers chose Sweed with the 53rd pick of April's Draft, the twenty-second selection of the second round. The rookie will compete with Nate Washington to be the WR3 for the Steelers. With an ADP of WR45, fantasy owners have to hope for injury. He is being taken ahead of solid veteran pass catchers like Derrick Mason, Mark Clayton, and Isaac Bruce. All are startable any given week while Sweed is not.
• Earl Bennett set records while at Vanderbilt. He was drafted by one of the worst offenses in the NFL, the Chicago Bears. The former teammate of Jay Cutler was drafted with the seventh pick of the third round, selection 70 overall. Bennett has a chance to emerge as a starting receiver for the Bears with just Mark Bradley, Brandon Lloyd, Devin Hester and Marty Booker as the top pass catchers on the team. Bennett is currently being drafted as WR75 in a tier with Amani Toomer, Demetrius Williams, and Arnaz Battle. Bennett has a good shot to surpass his ADP. He and Williams are the ones in this tier to get as a WR7 for your fantasy team.
• Early Doucet played in relative obscurity behind Dwayne Bowe and Craig Davis at LSU. Doucet was drafted into a great situation by the Arizona Cardinals. Bryant Johnson proved that even a marginal NFL receiver could flourish as the WR3 with Fitzgerald and Boldin on the field. With an injury to either starter, the former Bayou Tiger could be the top producing rookie pass catcher. He was chosen with the eighteenth pick of the third round, the 81st pick of the draft. With an ADP of WR77, Doucet has a great chance to beat expectations. Early Doucet is being drafted in a tier with other high reward wideouts like Demetrius Williams, Chad Jackson, and Jacoby Jones. Doucet and Jackson are in the best situations of this tier. Early Doucet has a very legitimate chance to be the top rookie receiver in 2008.
• Mario Manningham made plays while at Michigan. The New York football Giants selected the former Wolverine with the 95th pick of April's Draft, the thirty-second pick of the third round. Manningham will struggle to find the field unless there are multiple injuries to those in front of him. With veterans Plaxico Burress and Amani Toomer entrenched as starters, and Steve Smith's playoff run as the slot receiver, Manningham will find the going tough to make an impact as a rookie. He currently is being drafted as WR66, ahead of Justin Gage and David Patten. Both are starters for their respective teams and offer a better chance to meet expectations. Let someone else take the chance on the former Michigan star.
• Andre Caldwell is another that has a great chance to outperform his ADP. He caught a great break being drafted by the pass-happy Cincinnati Bengals. The opening left by Chris Henry and the turbulence created by Chad Johnson, has given the speedy Caldwell a good chance to make an impact. The Bengals took the former Florida Gator with the 97th overall pick, the thirty-fourth selection of the third round. His ADP is WR89 along with other high-risk players. If you can find a place for Reche's little brother on your roster, you could strike gold. One of the Bengal rookie receivers will emerge this season. The veterans on that team fighting for the WR3 position are nothing for the talented rookies to surpass.

There are only a few rookie wide receivers that have a good chance to eclipse their ADP. Devin Thomas could really come on, but might be limited by the development of Jason Campbell. The two Bengal rookies also have a good chance to be viable in 2008. There is a lot of turmoil on that team and opportunity will arise. Earl Bennett and Early Doucet also could surprise. Doucet is the one receiver with a low ADP that can definitely get enough of a chance to be a top twenty receiver in his first season.