Examining Rookie Performance - WRs

  Updated 7/16 by Jeff Tefertiller, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

There is no position that is more difficult to forecast future success than the wide receiver position. Many pass catchers excel at the collegiate level with just great athletic ability. But, the NFL is littered with big, strong, fast, athletic wideouts that are exposed as frauds when they enter the league. Each and every year, there is a new crop of talented players entering the NFL at the wide receiver position. And, each year, the majority of these newcomers fall way short of expectations. Because of this, I charted how these first-year receivers fared compared to others at the wide receiver position. The data set for this study was collected on the wide receiver position from players in the 2002 through 2007 NFL Drafts. We will also break the players down among Top 10 picks, First Round selections, First Day choices, and fantasy starters. This will be in an effort to see if there are any predictors for fantasy success in a receiver's first year.

This data was collected for the specific purpose of looking at the information through the eyes of the fantasy owner at draft time. For this reason, only players drafted in the NFL Draft, and ones with a reasonable Average Draft Position (ADP) were used. The goal was to gauge how these rookies performed compared to their ADP. That is what we want to know isn't it? How can I draft players that will live up to the draft pick used? This article looks back at how rookies have produced in the past six years. The next article in the series will examine the incoming wide receiver class to see which has the best chance of surpassing their ADP.

Only one rookie receiver in the last six seasons has finished as a fantasy WR1, the Top 12 at the position. In addition, only two newcomers have finished in the Top 20. If we look further into the production over the time span, we see just five instances (in six years) where a first-year pass catcher finished as fantasy a WR2, the Top 24 at the position. Each time, the wide receiver far surpassed their ADP. Through this time span, there have been many drafted by fantasy owners with high hopes for the young wideout to be the next Randy Moss. One thing to note about the data set below is that the rookie wide receiver that finished with the highest positional rank for the season was never the one with the highest ADP. To put it in simpler terms, the first-year pass catcher that is drafted first by fantasy owners has not finished as the top rookie player at the position throughout the six years of the study. What does this mean? We will delve into it more later on, but we do know the hype drives up the price too high for these rookies. The price is so high there is no way they can meet or exceed the expectations.

Anquan Boldin had the best fantasy season by a wide receiver as a rookie. In 2003, he was tremendous value after being drafted as WR88. There is little that equals having a WR8 on your fantasy team finish as WR4 overall. Boldin helped many fantasy owners win the championship in 2003. When we look at the others that finished in the Top 24, we see that none were drafted as a fantasy WR3. In fact, three of the five were taken as WR6 or worse. Only Andre Johnson and Dwayne Bowe were taken as WR4 for their fantasy teams.

When looking at the finishes above we soon realize that many of these highly touted rookies disappointed fantasy owners. There are many more instances where the first-year receiver underperformed expectations than those that equaled or exceeded their ADP. But, it makes sense. Even though these rookies have loads of talent, veterans at the position are much more likely to start games early in the season and they are a known commodity to the team. It is much easier to make an informed opinion about a veteran receiver than a rookie. Fantasy owners do not know how the rookie will adjust to the NFL. Also, the pecking order on the depth chart is more certain for established players than for rookies. Drafting rookies carries quite a bit of uncertainty. Below is a graph with how the rookie wide receivers have fared. It is broken down by those chosen in the Top 10 of the NFL Draft, the First Round, and First Day. There were not any chosen on the Second Day that had an ADP. The ADP column is on the left and positional rank on the right.

So, why have these rookie wide receivers failed so miserably most of the time? There are a few contributing factors. First of all, the receiver position is one that takes time to transition from college to the pros. The playbook is thick and receivers are asked to do more than just run deep. These newcomers need to be able to run block, read defenses for the hot and option routes, run the right routes every time, and so much more. Also, the NFL coaches and quarterbacks need for these young players to be consistent all of the time. The odds are usually stacked against a rookie getting a lot of pass targets early in the season. When we look back at those that finished as a fantasy WR2, we notice that the common denominator is situation, a lack of other receiving options for their respective teams. In these five good seasons by a rookie wideout, four were on NFL teams without a viable second option in the passing game. In fact, the highest amount of receiving yards by the other starting wideout for these teams was far less than 500 yards. The Kansas City Chiefs in 2007 had Bowe with a shade less than 1,000 receiving yards. The next highest was Jeff Webb with 313. The Chiefs had the lowest WR2 receiving yards of the group. The other three had 460 and less receiving yards. The one outlier was the 2003 Buffalo Bills when Lee Evans had his breakout rookie season. Eric Moulds actually had more yards than Evans. Also, the Buffalo Bill offense of 2003 was more prolific through the air than the others.

When we notice all of the rookie receivers that were drafted as fantasy starters, the top 36 at the position, we soon grasp how few live up to expectations as rookies. Not one of these rookie fantasy starters performed up to their ADP. Larry Fitzgerald played well his rookie season, but still fell just short. Calvin Johnson looks to be a great prospect, but he came up short as well, mainly due to injuries. We do not need to get into the pitfalls of drafting Charles Rogers. Some fantasy owners still are shaking their heads about picking that guy as a fantasy WR3. Fantasy starters in this study were drafted on averaged as WR25 at the position. On average, these first-year wideouts finished as WR51. Obviously, there are rookie wideouts like Marques Colston that come out of nowhere and are prolific. Since he was not on the radar of fantasy owners at draft time, he was excluded from the study. It just goes to show how inexact the science is the NFL Combine and Draft.

So, what have we learned? Avoid all first-year wideouts drafted as fantasy starters. That is first and foremost. What else? Most of the receivers that had the biggest impact for fantasy owners were the ones with the five highest ADP. These are usually the receivers drafted highest in the draft. This makes sense. Even though the NFL teams do make mistakes, they are still pretty good at spotting talent. Lastly, as stated above, the receiver with the highest ADP has not finished as the top player at the position as a rookie. With all of this in mind, the next article will examine each of the first-year pass catchers and the chances of each exceeding their ADP.