Examining Rookie Performance - The 2008 RBs

  Updated 7/16 by Jeff Tefertiller, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

In the last article, we came to the conclusion that it is very risky to draft rookies at any position. Even first year running backs, those capable of making the biggest impact, still fail more than they succeed. In years 2003 through 2005, only one rookie ball carrier (Cadillac Williams) finished as a Top 20 back, and he finished at RB19. Up until 2006, few incoming rushers exceeded their ADP. In that season, five of the six running backs taken in the top two rounds of the NFL Draft came close to or outperformed their ADP. In 2007, both of the running backs taken in the first round far surpassed their draft slot. But, let's look at the next group of runners in last year's class. Do these names ring a bell? Brandon Jackson, Michael Bush, Chris Henry, Lorenzo Booker, Kenny Irons, Tony Hunt, Antonio Pittman, Brian Leonard, Garrett Wolfe and Dwayne Wright. All of these rookies disappointed and many missed the mark by monumental proportions. This is normal for rookies in redraft leagues. Even with the very good seasons by the top picks of the last two NFL Draft classes, they were not enough to bring up the averages. Check out the table below, which was also in the previous article, for the averages of how different groups fared as rookies:

In that earlier article, we discussed how difficult it is for rookie running backs to warrant the draft pick used to select the player. This occurs for several reasons. Many times these incoming runners are not proficient picking up the blitz. If a back comes off the field for obvious passing downs, the odds are stacked against them having a major impact. There is no way a coach wants to take the chance that his quarterback gets creamed because a rookie cannot pick up the blitz. Also, most of these youngsters are drafted into situations where there is an incumbent in place. These rookies do not start right away and are worked into the lineup slowly. It is rare that a team turns over the reins from day one. Many times opportunity trumps talent for fantasy production in the first year of a running back's career. One other factor working against the first-year backs is that the NFL season is much longer than the collegiate schedule. These ball carriers go from 12- or 13-game seasons to 20 in the NFL (4 preseason games and 16 during the regular season). The increased size of pro defenders and increased game speed only make the injury risk more pronounced.

Since we have covered how past rookie classes have performed against their ADP, we need to examine how the 2008 NFL Draft class will produce. When we look back we see that before this year, Reggie Bush was the only rookie back to be drafted as RB20 or higher. He fell short of his ADP. Also it is worth noting that both Clinton Portis and Adrian Peterson were drafted as a fantasy RB3 for their fantasy teams. In addition, with the tremendous rookie season by Maurice Jones-Drew, we have learned that a star only needs an opportunity to flourish. In the 2005 season, Marion Barber III came out of nowhere to be a viable and productive fantasy back. He was drafted as RB79 and finished as a fantasy RB3 (RB35). The list below has the running backs taken in April's draft that currently have a reasonable ADP.

• Darren McFadden was drafted with the fourth overall pick in April's NFL Draft. The former Arkansas star was prolific in college, earning two Doak Walker awards. He is currently being drafted as RB19 in fantasy drafts. Fantasy owners are taking a chance on the gifted McFadden, drafting him ahead of Brandon Jacobs, Willie Parker, Earnest Graham, Edgerrin James and many other fantasy RB2 running backs. McFadden has loads of talent, and the Raider backfield produced fantasy points last year with Lamont Jordan early on and Justin Fargas as the season progressed, but it will be difficult for the Raider rookie to meet or exceed his ADP in his first season wearing the black and silver.
• Jonathan Stewart is a huge back, one that is gifted with tremendous athletic ability. The former Oregon Duck was drafted by the Carolina Panthers with the thirteenth overall pick in the 2008 NFL Draft. The team also has DeAngelo Williams in the backfield so it is not yet known how the two will be used. Most assume the Panthers will utilize Stewart's size much like Stephen Davis in the past since the team wants to have a power running game once again. The former Duck is being drafted as RB23, a low-end fantasy RB2. He is presently being chosen ahead of proven backs like Edgerrin James, Julius Jones, LenDale White, and Thomas Jones. Yes, Stewart has loads of talent, but the threat of a running back committee is enough to choose a more proven fantasy RB2 that is in a better situation.
• Felix Jones paired with Darren McFadden in Arkansas to help the Razorbacks be only the second collegiate duo to each run for over 1,000 yards in consecutive seasons. With the twenty-second overall pick in the NFL Draft, Jones was taken by the Dallas Cowboys to presumably take over the role vacated by the departure of Julius Jones. Given Marion Barber's success as the primary ball carrier and goal line back, Felix's upside is limited unless there is an injury. Felix Jones is currently being drafted as a fantasy RB3 (RB34). That is much too high for an unknown back in an unknown situation. Jones never carried the load in college and is an electric change of pace back, but is still a change of pace back. He currently is being drafted ahead of Fred Taylor and Chester Taylor, both of which should once again offer more value to fantasy owners as value picks in the middle rounds.
• Rashard Mendenhall had a big bowl game against USC, vaulting his status among football fans. The former Illinois star was drafted by the Pittsburgh Steelers with the twenty-third overall pick in the NFL Draft. The Steelers say they were shocked to see the athletic ball carrier make it to their pick. Mendenhall has a great combination of size and speed. He should help the Steelers reestablish the run game after a down year. The exact roles of Mendenhall and incumbent Willie Parker are not yet known. The one thing that we can assume is that the rookie will get the goal line carries. The youngster currently has an ADP of RB27. That is about right. He offers a ton of upside for fantasy owners, but also has risk. Thomas Jones is the one desirable fantasy back taken after Mendenhall that will not share carries. The first year pro is also drafted ahead of Fred Taylor and Rudi Johnson, among others.
• Chris Johnson is a fast, fast player. He runs the 40-yard dash in the 4.2 range. The Tennessee Titans, with the twenty-fourth overall pick, drafted Johnson out of East Carolina. He is a multifaceted player whose speed is his biggest asset. In the NFL, the smallish back will be used all over the field. The Titans need his playmaking ability. At present, Johnson is being drafted at RB37. Chris Johnson will not carry the ball enough to warrant this pick. He is a player that is a bigger weapon in the NFL than his fantasy stats will show. Johnson is being drafted in front of Ahmad Bradshaw, Justin Fargas, and others that offer more fantasy potential and impact in 2008.
• Matt Forte saw his fantasy stock soar after the release of Cedric Benson. The Chicago Bears drafted the rookie from Tulane with the forty-fourth overall pick, the thirteenth pick of the second round. While Forte might eventually be a good fantasy back, the Bears are a mess. The offensive line is not good. The quarterback situation is horrible. There will be little room to run for the first year back. He is currently being drafted as RB29, a fantasy RB3. I realize this looks like a steal. But, Benson could not finish that high last year in a similar circumstance, and it is unknown whether the rookie is as good as the former Bear. Also, there is a chance that the Bears bring in Kevin Jones or other free agent to compete for playing time. Chicago will be playing from behind most of the season and will not be able to establish the running game most weeks. To make matters worse, veteran Adrian Peterson is still on the team and will take carries away from the rookie.
• Ray Rice impressed many with his toughness and ability while at Rutgers. He was drafted by the Baltimore Ravens with the twenty-fourth pick of the second round, and fifty-fifth pick overall. Rice is stuck behind productive veteran Willis McGahee in the Raven backfield. His fantasy production in 2008 will hinge on the health of McGahee. Rice is presently being drafted as RB40 ahead of backs that will see regular playing time like Justin Fargas and Jerious Norwood. As a fantasy RB4, there are better options unless you feel like Willis will not make it through the season healthy.
• Kevin Smith came close to breaking Barry Sanders' collegiate record for yardage last season. The downside is that he carried the ball well over 400 times. Smith was drafted by the Detroit Lions with the first pick of the third round, the sixty-fourth overall selection. Kevin Smith only has Tatum Bell and Brian Calhoun as competition for carries after the release of Kevin Jones. While Smith might have a decent rookie season, it is unlikely that he will break into the Top 25 running backs given the poor state of the Lion offensive line. The rookie has an ADP of RB31, ahead of DeAngelo Williams, Fred Taylor, and Chester Taylor. Even though the Lions want the youngster to carry the load in a ball-control offense, there is little upside. The Lion ball carriers in recent years have a horrific yards per carry average and it is unlikely to change any time soon. The team should be playing from behind with such a porous defense. Smith has a decent chance to outperform others in his ADP range, but it will be tough for him to be a must start any given week.
• Jacob Hester is a hybrid running back and fullback. The versatile Hester was productive at LSU. The San Diego Chargers drafted Hester with the sixth pick of the third round, and pick sixty-nine overall. Many consider Jacob to be the primary backup to Tomlinson, but that is still in question. There is little upside for Hester - even with a Tomlinson injury, Darren Sproles would still see action. Jacob Hester is being drafted as RB77 off the board. This is the time in drafts where owners take the big gambles on backups. There are other rookies, and some veterans, that offer more upside for the late round pick.
• Jamaal Charles had a monster season for the Texas Longhorns last year. He put together several games with at least 200 rushing yards. Charles was drafted by the Kansas City Chiefs to provide big plays in an anemic offense. With the injury history of Larry Johnson, Charles is one rookie back that could surprise. He was drafted with the tenth pick of the third round, the seventy-third overall selection. The blazing fast rookie has an ADP of RB47. He is being drafted in a tier with other high upside backs like Pierre Thomas, Chris Brown, and Kenny Watson. Jamaal Charles is a good pick late in drafts for owners wanting the high potential for fantasy production if Johnson is injured.
• Steve Slaton had great campaigns in 2005 and 2006. He was not as dominant in 2007 as his first two seasons at West Virginia. The Houston Texans took the speedy back with the twenty-sixth selection of the third round, the 89th pick overall. Slaton was selected to primarily be a third down, change of pace runner. He was drafted into a crowded backfield including veteran Ahman Green, speedy Chris Brown, and Chris Taylor. Slaton is currently drafted as RB56, ahead of veterans Sammy Morris, Warrick Dunn and Ladell Betts. Each of these veterans has an established role in their offense and could be legitimate fantasy starters if there is an injury. Given the size of the former Mountaineer, he will likely always be a third down, change of pace back.
• Tashard Choice transferred to Georgia Tech after realizing he would not get to play much at Oklahoma with Adrian Peterson in Norman. The Dallas Cowboys drafted the former Yellow Jacket with the twenty-third pick of the fourth round, the 122nd pick of the draft. Choice is the primary backup to Marion Barber III. If the former Golden Gopher is injured, the door will be wide open for Choice. He does have talent and could succeed if given the opportunity. Currently, Tashard is being drafted as RB80, in front of other backup rushers like T.J. Duckett, Kevin Faulk, and Correll Buckhalter. If there is a roster spot to spare, Tashard Choice could be a good gamble late in redrafts.
• Ryan Torain injured his foot during the 2007 season at Arizona State. He is a big running back with some ability. The Denver running game is one where Torain could excel. He should perform well in the one-cut, zone blocking system of the Broncos. Denver took Torain with the fourth pick in the fifth round, the 139th overall pick. Torain will start the season behind Selvin Young, and possibly Michael Pittman and Andre Hall on the depth chart. He currently is drafted as RB43 off the board ahead of Deuce McAllister, Ahman Green, Leon Washington, Kenny Watson, and Sammy Morris. The rookie in Denver is a true boom or bust pick. These other veterans are better starts most weeks, but the potential as the Bronco starting back is immense.
• Tim Hightower was very productive at the University of Richmond. He was drafted into a great situation in Arizona. The backup runners for the Cardinals are weak at best. Marcel Shipp and J.J. Arrington are not threats. Given Edgerrin James' high mileage, there is a decent chance an Arizona bench rusher will see extensive time. The former Spider was drafted with the fourteenth pick of the fifth round in April's draft, the 149th overall pick. He has an ADP of RB78, in front lower upside veterans like T.J. Duckett, Kevin Faulk, and Correll Buckhalter. At this draft spot, the rookie is a good gamble.
• Mike Hart was a true workhorse at Michigan. The diminutive back has a huge heart and true grit, but does not possess the type of physical skills that excite the professional football personnel departments. Hart was taken with the thirty-sixth pick of the sixth round, the 202nd overall. Hart is the third running back on the depth chart, behind Joseph Addai and Dominic Rhodes. The former Wolverine has an ADP of RB79. He is a player to keep an eye on just to wait and see. It is doubtful he would see much time unless one or both backs ahead of him are injured.

With so few rookie running backs enjoying success their first season in the league, fantasy owners should not expect great production from first-year players. Of the top incoming rushers, Rashard Mendenhall has the best chance to exceed his ADP, compared to the other choices for rookie fantasy starters. Let's remember that in the last six years, the collective ADP of those drafted as fantasy starters (through RB36), is RB28. The final ranking of these players is RB40. This is even after the two major success stories in 2007 by Adrian Peterson and Marshawn Lynch.

What about the bench running backs? There is upside to be had. Marion Barber was drafted as RB79 and finished as RB35 in 2005. There are a couple of rookies in this year's class that offer the same potential at a similar price. Jamaal Charles, Tashard Choice, and Tim Hightower all could enjoy breakout seasons if they find opportunity. They each back up hard running rushers that are each moderate injury risks.

During your draft, if you have a choice between a proven running back and a rookie who is probably in a committee, odds are that the best move is to draft the proven veteran. Yes, one or more first-year runners will enjoy a good season, but it is difficult choosing which one. Let someone else take that risk during your fantasy draft.