Examining Rookie Performance - RBs

  Updated 7/16 by Jeff Tefertiller, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

Adrian Peterson had a remarkable season as a rookie in 2007, but a rookie ball carrier having a monster season is a rare feat. The running back position is one that a first year player can play immediately if talented enough, and if he is a willing and able blocker. With so many first year backs disappointing over the years, I looked at the players drafted in the last six NFL Drafts. Surprisingly, Clinton Portis, Maurice Jones-Drew and Adrian Peterson are the only three to finish in the Top 10 their first season. A couple more had good seasons, far surpassing their Average Draft Position (ADP), Joseph Addai and Marshawn Lynch. These are the only five rookies to finish in the top sixteen fantasy backs, regardless of draft position. There have been some very good NFL running backs drafted in this time frame. It will surprise many that the rookies have performed well below expectations.

This study examines at how rookie running backs fare in their first year as a pro. Each player is compared against others at the position at how well they produce versus their ADP. The rankings used are from the Footballguys.com season-ending rankings. The ADP is from redraft leagues at MFL (MyFantasyLeague.com). Only players drafted in the NFL Draft with a reasonable ADP were considered. Only backs up to RB7 for a 12-team league (84 backs) were used in the data set. Also, players who were drafted, then injured in offseason or preseason, were still included since some fantasy owners used a draft pick on the first year player. Below are the rookie ball carriers that fit the above criteria from the last six NFL Drafts.

In 2007, few of the incoming rushers met or exceeded their ADP - just Peterson, Lynch, Kolby Smith, and DeShawn Wynn. When we look back at last offseason, it is easy to see how foolish it was for fantasy owners to draft and have high expectations for Brandon Jackson, Michael Bush, Chris Henry, and the rest of the disappointing backs. The reality is that 2007 was actually a good year for rookie running backs. Look back at 2003 - not one first year runners outperformed his ADP. I wanted to see how each draft class performed against the others, so below is a breakdown of each class and their production against their combined ADP:

Not one draft class beat their collective ADP. Even with the big seasons from Peterson and Lynch, the running back class of 2007 was disappointing. Two years back, in 2006, was the closest a draft class came to deserving their ADP. This was mainly due to the huge season by Jones-Drew, eclipsing his RB63 draft slot by 55 spots and finishing as RB8. Of the top six backs in 2006 draft class, only LenDale White frustrated fantasy owners by dramatically falling short of his ADP. Other than Clinton Portis, Frank Gore, and Marion Barber, no first year ball carrier in years 2002 through 2005 vaulted from a fantasy RB3, or lower, to viability and a top 40 finish. The rookie season by Clinton Portis is amazing. He was drafted by Denver in the second round out of Miami, but was still only drafted by fantasy owners as RB25 that preseason. To finish as the fourth best running back in the entire league is a huge accomplishment. It is eerily similar to how Peterson was drafted as RB25 and finished as RB3.

The above data is intriguing. So, I then looked up how different groups fared against the ADP. The categories used were: Top 10 picks, First Round, First Day, and Second Day. The following are the numbers broken down (with the ADP numbers appearing on the left and the final rankings on the right):

The huge season by Adrian Peterson in 2007, finishing as RB3 after drafted as RB25, still was not enough to help the Top 10 backs to even ground. No group performed up to expectations. I know this surprises many that as a group, Top 10 and First Round backs are a risky proposition. Also, I looked at those drafted as a fantasy starter. The rookie running backs drafted by fantasy owners as starters were also included. These were ones taken as a RB3 in a 12-team league, so RB36 or better. On average, the rookie backs drafted as a fantasy starter had a collective ADP of RB28. They finished with an average finish of RB40. This means that if fantasy owners take a rookie running back as a fantasy starter, the odds are not good that the player will warrant the pick. Day one picks are defined as players taken in the first three rounds of the NFL Draft. The Draft changed this year, but the variable remained constant in the data.

Many fantasy owners have followed these ball carriers throughout their collegiate careers. The memory of success at the college level only perpetuates the high expectations. Many of these first year backs were taken into situations where they shared time in their first season. Also, there are several factors that inhibit good fantasy production for these rushers. Not all rookie backs come into the league prepared physically or mentally for rigors of the NFL. The next article in this series will discuss the specific running backs taken in the 2008 NFL Draft and their chances.