Overvalued Players - Week 9

  Posted 10/30 by Jeff Tefertiller, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

This article will take a weekly look at players who are overvalued in a given week. Negative value is when a player offers more long-term value than he does for this week. The basis for this value will be the difference between the Top 250 forward, a look at the top 250 players with the whole season in mind, and the weekly rankings. Both of these are from the Footballguys.com subscriber content. An emphasis will be on the players with the largest differences between the season outlook and this week only. Also, a preference will be given to differences for the higher ranked players. Some of these differences will be due to injury, matchup of the week, or short-term situation. Now, let's take a look at this week's negative value players. With the bye weeks in full swing, it is important to note that some of the Overvalue plays on this list would be much worse if all teams were playing this week.

Quarterback

Aaron Rodgers

• Top 250 ranking: 4
• Weekly ranking: 20
• Difference: -16

Aaron Rodgers has played much better than most expected coming into the season. This week, he and the Packers meet the Tennessee Titans. The Titans were able to contain Peyton Manning and the Colts on Monday night. There is a good chance that the same happens to the high-flying Green Bay passing attack. Also, keep an eye on the shoulder injury to Rodgers.

Brett Favre

• Top 250 ranking: 10
• Weekly ranking: 16
• Difference: -6

Brett Favre and the Jets have a tough test this week against the Buffalo Bills. Favre has enjoyed some huge games this year. The Bills are a good defense that limits the big play from opposing offenses. This is a tough spot to start the gray-bearded passer.

Matt Cassel

• Top 250 ranking: 20
• Weekly ranking: 22
• Difference: -2

Cassel played well last week against a poor Ram defense. This ranking would be much worse if not due to the prominent passers injured or on bye. Cassel will have troubles facing the Colts. Expect Tony Dungy to find a way to make things difficult for the inexperienced veteran.

Running Back

Steve Slaton

• Top 250 ranking: 15
• Weekly ranking: 22
• Difference: -7

Slaton has impressed as a rookie. With Ahman Green possibly out due to injury, Slaton is expected to carry much of the load this week. The only catch is that the Texans meet the Vikings. The Minnesota rush defense is one of the elite run-stopping defenses in the league. They only yield 71 yards on the ground per game. The rookie still may catch a few balls, making him a low-end RB2 this week.

Clinton Portis

• Top 250 ranking: 2
• Weekly ranking: 8
• Difference: -6

Portis has been nothing short of awesome for his fantasy owners this season. But, this week, the Redskins have the Pittsburgh Steelers coming to town. The Steelers only give up an average of 72 yards on the ground per game. The game will be a good test for the former Bronco. Also, keep an eye on his injuries. Fantasy owners still need to start the stud, but expectations should be lowered.

Jamal Lewis

• Top 250 ranking: 16
• Weekly ranking: 26
• Difference: -10

Jamal Lewis has disappointed this season. In fact, the entire Brown offense has not produced up to expectations. The Browns host the stingy Baltimore Raves in what should be a grind it out game. The Raven rushing defense is tops in the league, allowing a meager 64 rushing yards per game. This is the week to sit the veteran back.

Adrian Peterson

• Top 250 ranking: 3
• Weekly ranking: 6
• Difference: -3

Peterson and the Vikings play the Texans in what could be a high scoring contest. The Texans have improved against the run, only giving up 119 rush yards on average. Plus, the high scoring Texan offense may force the Vikings to open up the offense more just to keep up. Peterson is still a must start this week, but will have to work for his yards.

Wide Receiver

Terrell Owens

• Top 250 ranking: 9
• Weekly ranking: 26
• Difference: -17

Terrell Owens, and his fantasy owners, are counting the days until Tony Romo comes back. The Giants will be another stiff test for the Cowboy passing game. With the weak arm of Brad Johnson, it will be difficult to count on a big game from the Cowboy's All Pro wide receiver.

Reggie Wayne

• Top 250 ranking: 4
• Weekly ranking: 9
• Difference: -5

Reggie Wayne was shut down by the Titans. This week, he and the Colts play the wily Patriot defense. Many would think the Colts will pass all over the injury-plagued Patriot defensive backfield, but New England will look to contain the star receiver. This is a must win game for both teams and could be low scoring.

Greg Jennings

• Top 250 ranking: 5
• Weekly ranking: 22
• Difference: -17

Greg Jennings has emerged as a superstar. He and the Packer pass offense has played great this season. Green Bay gets a good test against the Tennessee Titans. The Titans effectively limited the Colts on Monday night and could shut down the Packers. The way the Titans controlled Wayne should give Jennings' owners some pause for concern.

Plaxico Burress

• Top 250 ranking: 15
• Weekly ranking: 20
• Difference: -5

Plaxico has been a distraction for the Giants. The superstar receiver did not start last week, but still played. This week, the Giants meet the Cowboys in a tough division game. The Cowboys will do everything possible to stop Burress, making Toomer or Smith beat them. He is still a must start, but without the upside of many weeks.

Tight End

Todd Heap

• Top 250 ranking: 14
• Weekly ranking: 29
• Difference: -15

Todd Heap looks to have lost a step. The injuries have mounted up. The Ravens play the Browns in a game that will be a battle of running games. Cleveland is better in defending opposing tight ends than many realize. Yes, they give up the big pass, but play tight ends well. The Browns shut down the Jaguar tight ends in week eight.

Heath Miller

• Top 250 ranking: 11
• Weekly ranking: 18
• Difference: -7

The Steelers use Miller a lot in the redzone. He is a good weapon to score from short yardage. The Steelers meet the Redskins in what could be a low scoring match of running games. Miller may not get many chances to score this week.

Kicker

Jason Elam

• Top 250 ranking: 4
• Weekly ranking: 13
• Difference: -9

Elam and the Falcons travel to Oakland to face the Raiders. Elam is an especially strong option at home in the dome. The game could be a run-fest, with few scoring chances for the Falcon kicker. There are better options on the waiver wire in most leagues.

David Akers

• Top 250 ranking: 1
• Weekly ranking: 12
• Difference: -11

David Akers is a consistent kicker from inside 40 yards. He struggles from anything further out. This week, the Eagles face the Seahawks in a game that could see many more extra point chances than field goals for the veteran kicker.

Defense

Tennessee Titans

• Top 250 ranking: 1
• Weekly ranking: 9
• Difference: -8

The Titans played outstanding defense against the Colts on Monday night. They face another stout test this week against the Packers. Rodgers will air it out, and maybe throw some picks, but the game will not be one that is full of turnovers. In addition, the Titans might have a let down after the big win against Indianapolis.

Baltimore Ravens

• Top 250 ranking: 8
• Weekly ranking: 23
• Difference: -15

The Ravens face the Browns in what should be a low-scoring, run-oriented game with little passing. The Ravens will be able to keep the Browns from moving the ball much, but the game may not be conducive to fantasy scoring. This will be a defense-dominated game.