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Overvalued Players - Week 14

  Posted 12/3 by Jeff Tefertiller, Exclusive to Footballguys.com


This article will take a weekly look at players who are overvalued in a given week. Negative value is when a player offers more long-term value than he does for this week. The basis for this value will be the difference between the Top 250 forward, a look at the top 250 players with the whole season in mind, and the weekly rankings. Both of these are from the Footballguys.com subscriber content. An emphasis will be on the players with the largest differences between the season outlook and this week only. Also, a preference will be given to differences for the higher ranked players. Some of these differences will be due to injury, matchup of the week, or short-term situation. Now, let's take a look at this week's negative value players.

Quarterback

Philip Rivers

  • Top 250 ranking: 7
  • Weekly ranking: 13
  • Difference: -6

Rivers has had an up and down season. He and the Chargers face the Raiders on Thursday night. Oakland has a poor rush defense but are very good against the pass. This game should set up for Tomlinson to excel, not the passing game.

Tony Romo

  • Top 250 ranking: 3
  • Weekly ranking: 12
  • Difference: -9

Romo is back and looks healthy after missing time with the thumb injury. This week begins a tough stretch for the Cowboys. They travel to Pittsburgh to face the Steelers. Pittsburgh stopped the red hot Matt Cassel last week and should slow Romo way down after a strong game on Thanksgiving Day.

Jake Delhomme

  • Top 250 ranking: 11
  • Weekly ranking: 30
  • Difference: -19

The Panther passing offense has cooled way down the last few weeks. The running game has picked up the slack. Facing the tough Tampa Bay Buccaneers this week will be huge test for Delhomme. Tampa is one of just a few teams that allows fewer than 200 passing yards per contest.

Running Back

Brian Westbrook

  • Top 250 ranking: 7
  • Weekly ranking: 16
  • Difference: - 9

Westbrook was nursing ankle and knee injuries prior to exploding against the Cardinals on Thanksgiving. He faces a much tougher defense in the Giants this week. New York only gives up 85 rushing yards and 0.6 touchdowns a game. Fantasy owners should still start the versatile back, but temper expectations.

Maurice Jones-Drew

  • Top 250 ranking: 15
  • Weekly ranking: 22
  • Difference: - 7

The Jaguar offense has disappointed greatly this season. This week, Jacksonville travels to Chicago to face the Bears. This is after a poor showing on Monday Night Football at Houston. A short week, with two road games, is a tough spot for the Jaguars. Chicago has a top tier rush defense which will try to contain the only big play weapon for Jacksonville.

Marion Barber

  • Top 250 ranking: 5
  • Weekly ranking: 23
  • Difference: - 18

Barber hurt his pinkie toe on Thanksgiving. He should play, but gets a tough matchup against the Steelers this week. Pittsburgh is the top rushing defense in the league. In addition, the game is at Pittsburgh. This is a tough matchup for the Cowboys' stud running back, assuming he plays.

Clinton Portis

  • Top 250 ranking: 12
  • Weekly ranking: 32
  • Difference: - 20

Portis has played hurt the last few weeks. He has still played pretty well. Portis did not get many carries last week against New York. He faces a tough Raven defense this week which will limit any upside. Portis is not healthy and has a very difficult contest at Baltimore. There are several better RB2 options this week.

Wide Receiver

Santana Moss

  • Top 250 ranking: 16
  • Weekly ranking: 28
  • Difference: -12

Santana Moss and the Redskins travel to Baltimore to face the Ravens in what looks like a very tough matchup. With Portis nicked up, Moss is the one player that the Ravens will want to contain and control. Baltimore and Pittsburgh are tied for tops in the league for passing yardage given up. This should be a difficult game for Moss to get going.

Dwayne Bowe

  • Top 250 ranking: 12
  • Weekly ranking: 38
  • Difference: -26

Bowe has played well this season, but is coming off of a down game against the Raiders. This week, Bowe and the Chiefs face Champ Bailey and the Broncos in Denver. The Broncos will focus on stopping Bowe. This is a game that will be tough for Bowe to get open often.

Laveranues Coles

  • Top 250 ranking: 29
  • Weekly ranking: 43
  • Difference: - 14

Coles has been very inconsistent this season. The Jets have relied on a strong running game most weeks. This Sunday looks the same as the Jets travel to San Francisco to meet the 49ers. The Jets should be able to jump out to an early lead and run Thomas Jones often.

DeSean Jackson

  • Top 250 ranking: 20
  • Weekly ranking: 42
  • Difference: - 22

Jackson is one of the top rookies this season. The issue this week is that the Eagles travel to New York to face the Giants in a tough contest. This may be one of those weeks where there are better options. Jackson could get deep, but should not have many big plays.

Tight End

Owen Daniels

  • Top 250 ranking: 7
  • Weekly ranking: 17
  • Difference: - 10

Daniels was neglected when Sage Rosenfels was under center. It is encouraging that Matt Schaub is finally back from injury. The Texans travel to Green Bay to face the stout Packer pass defense. This is not a good matchup for the young, emerging tight end.

Antonio Gates

  • Top 250 ranking: 2
  • Weekly ranking: 10
  • Difference: - 8

Gates and the Chargers face the Raiders on Thursday night. The Oakland defense has played much better of late. This is a game where the star will be Tomlinson more than any on the passing game.

Kicker

Stephen Gostkowski

  • Top 250 ranking: 1
  • Weekly ranking: 9
  • Difference: -8

Gostkowski is a top kicker for fantasy leagues, but this may not be the best week to start him. The Patriots travel all of the way across the country to meet the Seahawks. There may not be many scoring chances for the New England kicker.

David Akers

  • Top 250 ranking: 3
  • Weekly ranking: 18
  • Difference: - 15

The Eagles face a tested Giants' team that will be out to get past the distraction of the Burress incident. This will not bode well for the Eagle offense, including Akers.

Defense

Baltimore Ravens

  • Top 250 ranking: 4
  • Weekly ranking: 9
  • Difference: -5

The Ravens host the Redskins in what should be a low scoring slugfest. The Redskin offense, led by Jason Campbell, does not turn the ball over much and will run the ball as much as possible. There is not a ton of upside for Ray Lewis and his buddies this week.

Chicago Bears

  • Top 250 ranking: 3
  • Weekly ranking: 8
  • Difference: - 5

The Jaguars come to Soldier Field While the Jaguars have a difficult time moving the ball consistently, they so not turn the ball over much. This has the look of an ugly game that could be low scoring.