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Overvalued Players - Week 10

  Posted 11/5 by Jeff Tefertiller, Exclusive to Footballguys.com


This article will take a weekly look at players who are overvalued in a given week. Negative value is when a player offers more long-term value than he does for this week. The basis for this value will be the difference between the Top 250 forward, a look at the top 250 players with the whole season in mind, and the weekly rankings. Both of these are from the Footballguys.com subscriber content. An emphasis will be on the players with the largest differences between the season outlook and this week only. Also, a preference will be given to differences for the higher ranked players. Some of these differences will be due to injury, matchup of the week, or short-term situation. Now, let's take a look at this week's negative value players. With the bye weeks in full swing, it is important to note that some of the Overvalue plays on this list would be much worse if all teams were playing this week.

Quarterback

Eli Manning

  • Top 250 ranking: 13
  • Weekly ranking: 18
  • Difference: -5

Eli Manning and the Giant offense have played well this year. The Eagle defense will provide a good test for the Giants. The Eagles will put the pressure on Manning. These are the types of games that Manning struggles. This week will be a tough game for Manning, and a good measure for the Giants' ability to repeat.

Jay Cutler

  • Top 250 ranking: 2
  • Weekly ranking: 9
  • Difference: -7

Cutler has been an elite fantasy passer this season. He started off very hot, but has tailed off lately. This week, he faces an underrated Brown secondary. The Brown defense has improved as the season has progressed. The Dolphins were able to contain Cutler for the most part last week and the short week does not help.

Peyton Manning

  • Top 250 ranking: 6
  • Weekly ranking: 13
  • Difference: -7

Like Cutler, Peyton Manning is a must start most every week. Manning and the Colts look out of sync and there has been no improvement of late. They face a tough Steeler defense this week. The Steelers know how to control the clock and keep the Colts offense in check. The outlook is not great for the Colt offense this week.

Running Back

Marshawn Lynch

  • Top 250 ranking: 10
  • Weekly ranking: 17
  • Difference: -7

Marshawn Lynch has disappointed of late. The Bills have not run the ball well the last few weeks. This Sunday, they travel to New England to meet the Patriots. This is not a great matchup for the young back. The game has huge implications for the division and should be low scoring.

Steven Jackson

  • Top 250 ranking:11
  • Weekly ranking: 25
  • Difference: -14

Steven Jackson has been hampered by the quadriceps injury for the last few weeks. He missed last week's game and is in danger to miss this week's game at New York. The Jets have a great run defense, making Jackson a poor play even if he does play.

Matt Forte

  • Top 250 ranking: 7
  • Weekly ranking: 13
  • Difference: -6

Matt Forte has been a pleasant surprise for the Bears. The Orton injury will hurt him as defenses will not respect Grossman as much. The Bears face the stout Tennessee Titan defense in what should be a great battle of the defense. Forte is still a must start due to his receiving ability.

Joseph Addai

  • Top 250 ranking: 17
  • Weekly ranking: 26
  • Difference: -9

It was good to see Joseph Addai back in the lineup last week for the Colts. Addai and the Colts have a tough test against Pittsburgh in what should be a must win for Indianapolis. The Steelers only give up 70 rushing yards a game. Dominic Rhodes should see some action, too, making Addai a tough back to start this week.

Wide Receiver

Hines Ward

  • Top 250 ranking: 15
  • Weekly ranking: 28
  • Difference: -13

Hines Ward may be affected by the quarterback change. Big Ben looked to the veteran on short and intermediate routes while Leftwich looks downfield. The Colts have a good pass defense, especially with Bob Sanders back on the field. Ward is a good possession receiver and still has a passion for the game. This might be a good week to find other WR2 options.

Reggie Wayne

  • Top 250 ranking: 4
  • Weekly ranking: 13
  • Difference: -9

Reggie Wayne has had a string of disappointing games in a row. The All Pro receiver has been hampered by the ineffectiveness of the Colt offense. Traveling to Pittsburgh this week will not help matters much. Owners still should start Wayne, but lower the expectations.

Wes Welker

  • Top 250 ranking: 27
  • Weekly ranking: 34
  • Difference: -7

Losing Tom Brady really hurt the impact of Welker. He still catches passes, but for little yardage. This week, the Patriots meet the Bills in a tough divisional game. Welker will have a tough time getting more than 50 receiving yards this week, especially with the weak arm of Matt Cassel.

Eddie Royal

  • Top 250 ranking: 22
  • Weekly ranking: 29
  • Difference: -7

Eddie Royal has been a major surprise for the Broncos. He is a playmaker, and good complement to Brandon Marshall. The Browns will be a tough matchup this week. Royal is still a decent WR3, but there are better options for WR2.

Tight End

Donald Lee

  • Top 250 ranking: 11
  • Weekly ranking: 16
  • Difference: -5

Aaron Rodgers has not looked to Donald Lee as much as Brett Favre did last season. But, even though the veteran tight end does not get many targets, he still has found the endzone with some regularity. This week, the Packers travel to Minnesota in a difficult divisional game. In addition, the emergence of Greg Jennings and Jordy Nelson have limited the tight end pass targets. This is not a good week to start the big tight end.

Owen Daniels

  • Top 250 ranking: 2
  • Weekly ranking: 7
  • Difference: -5

Owen Daniels has jumped all the way up to TE2 in the Top 250. Sage Rosenfels looked to him a lot last week. Daniels is a good tight end but gets a tough matchup this week. The Ravens are tough on the tight end position. Owners should still start Daniels, but he may not get his normal stats.

Kicker

Stephen Gostkowski

  • Top 250 ranking: 6
  • Weekly ranking: 15
  • Difference: -9

Gostkowski has done a good job in his tenure for the Patriots. This week's game against the Bills should not yield many scoring opportunities. It should be a low scoring game, with both teams struggling to move the ball.

David Akers

  • Top 250 ranking: 1
  • Weekly ranking: 10
  • Difference: -9

David Akers is a consistent kicker from inside 40 yards. He struggles from anything further out. This week, the Eagles face the Giants in a tough divisional game. He scored well last year, deserving the top ranking on the Top 250. But, the matchup against the Giants will be short on scoring chances.

Defense

Minnesota Vikings

  • Top 250 ranking: 7
  • Weekly ranking: 18
  • Difference: -11

The Vikings were the top defense coming into the season, and have not played up to that billing. The Vikings host the Packers this week, which should pose a good test for the pass defense. Rodgers does not get sacked a ton and does not turn the ball over much. There are better options this week than facing the Packers on turf.

Philadelphia Eagles

  • Top 250 ranking: 4
  • Weekly ranking: 14
  • Difference: -10

The Eagle defense is able to get pressure on most quarterbacks. The Giants have a great offensive line that is able to protect Eli Manning. The Eagle defense should still be started, but expectations tempered. Jim Johnson will have his group ready, but the game will be tough on the Eagle defense.