The Martz Effect - Part 2

  Posted 8/5 by Jeff Tefertiller, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

Mike Martz has his own style of offense. Many look at the prolific passing statistics and assume that the run game is neglected. In the first installment of this series, we established how Mike Martz has excelled in turning around the St. Louis Ram and Detroit Lion offenses. He took bottom-feeding offenses and turned them into top ranked attacks. It is amazing what Mike Martz has been able to accomplish. Those seasons in St. Louis were incredible, garnering the nickname of "The Greatest Show On Turf".

Martz was able to transform bad offenses into teams that could move the ball through the air. Before we get into Martz' effect on the running games under his direction, let's take another look at what he was able to accomplish in the passing games. For the two seasons prior to Martz' arrival as offensive coordinator in St. Louis, the team averaged:

This was an offense that languished at the bottom of the rankings. But, when we compare these numbers to the ones with Martz at the helm, it is an amazing turnaround:

Yes, that Ram offense had some great weapons. But, look at the all-important quarterback position. The passer during the Martz years were unknowns that the quarterback guru developed. This gives us hope for Alex Smith and Shaun Hill. Now, let's look at the two-year average of the Detroit Lions prior to Martz coming to the Motor City:

Detroit was an anemic offense in almost every category. But, the improvement is unmistakable. Check out what Martz was able to do with an over the hill passer in Kitna and few offensive weapons:

In just two short years, Mike Martz was able to help the Detroit Lion offense become respectable. This was not an easy feat. So, what does Martz inherit in San Francisco? The 49er offense was last in the league for the 2007 season, and had a two-year average of:

It is reasonable to expect a huge improvement in these numbers for the 2008 season. Believe it or not, Mike Martz has worked wonders with much less talent at his disposal. Fantasy owners should anticipate a team that scores over 20 points a game and totals 320 yards per contest. In addition, the passing game should crack the Top 10.

So, now we have a decent handle on what to expect from the passing game, but what should we expect from Frank Gore and the San Francisco running game? Does Mike Martz get a bad rap for having an ineffective ground game that passes too much and keeps the defense on the field? For most of Mike Martz' career, he has had a top ball carrier to get into space and take advantage of mismatches. In St. Louis, the offense took advantage of Marshall Faulk's skills. The offense got the former Colt into space with the ball and he was able to make some big plays. Faulk had seven Pro Bowl appearances, four coming under the Martz tenure. In 2005, Martz had the services of both Faulk and Steven Jackson. When we look back at the last two seasons in Detroit, it is difficult to discern whether the run game was poor because of the ineffectiveness and injuries to Kevin Jones or because Martz underutilized the running game. Below is a chart detailing the average number of rushes per game by the leading ball carrier in the Martz offense:

It is interesting that none of these rushers averaged twenty carries per game. There are couple of items that are worth noting:

During the Martz years, Marshall Faulk averaged 67 receptions per season.
In the Martz offense, Kevin Jones averaged 47 receptions per season and 3.72 catches a game.
In 2007, the Detroit Lions had two other running backs that got regular carries. T.J. Duckett averaged 5.4 carries per game and Tatum Bell averaged 8.8 carries in the five games he participated.

Marshall Faulk was a true stud running back. He excelled and was utilized to the best of his abilities. Kevin Jones, while talented, was nowhere near the caliber of Faulk. In Jones' two seasons with Mike Martz in town, he never eclipsed 700 rushing yards per season, but did amass good receiving numbers. So, how does this apply to Frank Gore and the San Francisco 49er running game? First, let's look back at some of the rushing numbers for the teams before Martz' arrival and with the gray-haired, pass-happy coach:

The St. Louis Rams before Martz:

The Rams were at the bottom of the league on the ground just like they were through the air. Now, let's look at the numbers during Martz' tenure:

We do notice that the 2002 and 2003 Rams struggled to run the ball even with Marshall Faulk. If we look above, we notice that the former Colt averaged 15 and 19 carries those two seasons. It is also worth noting that the years when the running game was effective were also the seasons that team scored the most points and totaled the most yards. The one thing that goes unnoticed is how the lowest time of possession with Martz was higher than either of the two seasons prior to coming back coming to the Rams. Yes, Mike Martz had tremendous weapons in St. Louis, but he took advantage of the matchups to get his best players the ball in space. So, what did the Detroit Lion run game look like before Martz? Well, see below:

In 2005, the Lions were at the bottom of the league in rushing statistics as well as passing. The Detroit offense was consistent .... ranking at the bottom of the league in almost every category. Here are the numbers for the two seasons with Martz in the Motor City:

Well, the rushing numbers actually declined as the passing numbers increased. The time of possession numbers were pathetic, leaving the porous Lion defense on the field way too much. The inability of Kevin Jones to stay healthy did not aid matters much. With coach Marinelli wanting to establish the run and control the clock, the dismissal of Mike Martz was easy to see on the horizon. As we attempt to get an idea of what to expect from Frank Gore in the Martz system, let's see how the 49er run game fared the last two seasons:

Now on to the player Bryant Gumbel calls Al Gore. Let's get a look at the Gore numbers the last two seasons:

These numbers are in line with Marshall Faulk's career. Fantasy owners should be able to expect at least this level of touches for Frank Gore under the direction of Mike Martz. The uncertainty at the quarterback positions should only enhance the receptions for Gore with a plethora of dumpoff passes. What is amazing is that Frank Gore was able to accumulate impressive numbers with the team ranking 31st in rushing attempts in 2007. The rushing attempts were a little better in 2006, and Frank Gore was able to put up some strong fantasy statistics. Frank Gore averages 4.9 yards per carry throughout his young career. In addition, the former Miami Hurricane averages 8.2 yards per reception. He is a playmaker. Gore is the best player on the San Francisco 49er offense and Mike Martz knows it. He has already come out and stated that Frank Gore will be the focal point of the offense. So, what should we expect from Frank Gore in 2008? I would like to suggest that the following numbers should be used as the most likely baseline:

• 296 carries
• 1,450 rushing yards
• 60 receptions
• 492 receiving yards
• 8 combined touchdowns

Does this look like it is unattainable? Well, the numbers are merely Gore's averages spread over 16 games. The statistics that are most likely to change are fewer carries, fewer rushing yards, but an increase in receptions. With Faulk having only three of his six seasons averaging 18 or more carries, it is not yet known if Martz will give Gore that many carries. If the carries decrease, the receptions will increase so there should be few worries for fantasy owners. Mike Martz knows that Frank Gore is the best offensive weapon for the San Francisco 49ers and will want the ball in his hands as often as possible. If these numbers are remotely close, then Frank Gore will be an absolute steal in fantasy leagues in 2008. The chance of missed time due to injury is a greater threat to Gore's fantasy numbers than the Mike Martz offense.