Dynasty Shopping Mall - Backup RBs

Posted 7/29 by Jeff Tefertiller, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

Just like any other shopping mall, this will have different products at different levels of quality and price. We will shop around at different stores like Bloomingdales, Macy's, Sears, even the Dollar Store and look for products to buy. The focus will be on value. Many times the expensive products are worth the price. Some times they are not. We will examine opportunities to buy at a reasonable price compared to the perceived value. The products we are purchasing are fantasy players for our dynasty team. This study will examine when is the best time to purchase young running backs for your fantasy team. Each and every year, there are young running backs that emerge after being left for dead. I know most remember the seasons Earnest Graham and Ryan Grant had in 2007. Both had played well for big schools at the collegiate level, but the opportunity never came in the NFL. The focus of these backup backs will be on players that could play at a high level if given the opportunity. I would much rather roster a player that could produce elite numbers rather than an aging, middle of the road veteran. If we are talking about a RB5 or RB6 on a fantasy team, give me the guy with upside.

Brandon Jackson

Brandon Jackson was drafted in the 2nd round of the 2007 NFL Draft to be the long term answer for the Green Bay Packers. Well, things did not work out as planned. Jackson was injured, and Ryan Grant was given an opportunity. The rest is history. It was nice to see Jackson bounce back after a dismal start to the season. His yards per carry averaged jumped two full yards in the last half of the season. Also, the versatility of the former Cornhusker was on display, catching 16 of 22 pass targets for 130 yards. Even though he was tentative as a rookie, Brandon Jackson does have talent. He might have enough talent to start for the Packers if anything should happen to Ryan Grant.

Outlook: Brandon Jackson is the favorite to back up Ryan Grant in 2008. There are really no other viable options. Vernand Morency and DeShawn Wynn are coming off of injuries. Jackson has ability and will play some spelling Grant. He needs to make the most of his touches in 2008.
Store: Macy's.
Price: A 2009 2nd round pick and a decent prospect.
Recommendation: Buy. Brandon Jackson should get another chance to produce in 2008. It is laughable that a player like Grant is expected to play the entire 2008 season without injury, especially when we all know how much he has battled injuries.

Jerious Norwood

Jerious Norwood had a decent sophomore season in the pass-happy Petrino offense. The Falcons rarely ran and looked to air it out often. The 25 year old averaged 6.0 yards per carry for the second season in a row. He has been very productive, but only has 201 carries in two seasons. He has added 40 receptions. With 1,627 total yards in the 241 touches, Norwood's explosiveness has been evident. The only two questions are whether the former third round pick will get a bigger opportunity and if he can handle the bigger load. He has the talent.

Outlook: Michael Turner was brought in to bolster the Atlanta Falcon run game. But, even Turner himself is far from proven in terms of durability. The new Falcon regime is wanting to install a run-heavy offense. Well, they need to with such a poor offensive line. Plus, rookie Matt Ryan should start several games in 2008. Jerious Norwood will get an opportunity to shine. It will be up to him what happens.
Store: Bloomingdales.
Price: A 2009 2nd round pick and a decent prospect.
Recommendation: Buy. Jerious Norwood had been left for dead by many fantasy owners. As with many fantasy players, Norwood's attractiveness is based upon price. He is worth more than most every player that was taken in the 2nd round of 2008 dynasty rookie drafts so giving a future 2nd round pick and a prospect is a good price. Since the former Mississippi State star is unproven, there is risk, but the price is still worth it. In addition, there will come a time in the 2008 season that Norwood is worth more than he is right now. It might be from how the Falcons use him or even due to a Turner injury. If you like Norwood, this is the time to buy, when everyone is down on the Falcons.

Ahmad Bradshaw

Ahmad Bradshaw showed he was an explosive player during the Giants' playoff run. His first big game was against Buffalo late in the year when Bradshaw carried the ball 17 times for 151 yards. Some scouts thought that Bradshaw had first round talent but slid to the seventh round of the draft because of his legal problems. While at Marshall, Bradshaw was a very good player that seemed to always be in trouble with the law. He was just released after serving 30 days in jail for a probation violation. One thing that is lost on many is that Ahmad Bradshaw just turned 22 years old. He is still young and improving ... and hopefully maturing. The team has stated that they will play the "hot hand". This is great news for Bradshaw owners.

Outlook: Ahmad Bradshaw is a polarizing player in dynasty leagues. Some see him as the next Tiki Barber. Others see him as a reserve, change of pace back for the Giants. What is for certain is that Bradshaw has talent and needs to stay out of trouble in order to showcase that ability. Most likely, he will be used as a complementary back, providing spark to the offense. The Giants need playmakers and Bradshaw might be the best big play guy on that offense.
Store: Barney's.
Price: A 2009 2nd round pick and a very good prospect or a 2009 1st.
Recommendation: Buy if you are a believer. But, the best time to buy Bradshaw has not come. I would recommend waiting until after more is known about the legal problems and his role in the offense. I expect Bradshaw to be used much like Reggie Bush to take advantage of his explosiveness in the open field.

Pierre Thomas

Pierre Thomas finally got his big chance in the last game of the 2007 season and he came through with a HUGE game against the Chicago Bears. In that game, the former Illinois star carried the ball 20 times for 105 yards, and caught 12 of 15 pass targets for 121 yards and a touchdown. This game against once-dominant Bear defense really put Pierre Thomas squarely on the fantasy map. Most assume that since Thomas was undrafted, he lacks talent. But, this is the same Pierre Thomas that kept 2008 1st rounder Rashard Mendenhall on the bench in college.

Outlook: The New Orleans Saints employ a two-back system. With the Deuce McAllister chronic knee injury, Thomas could be thrust into action early in the 2008 season. The Saints are a passing team, but use the backs a lot in the passing game. Pierre Thomas will see the field this season. The only question is how much.
Store: Macy's.
Price: A 2009 3rd round pick or a decent prospect.
Recommendation: Buy, Buy, Buy. Pierre Thomas looks to be a rising star in the league. At this price, Thomas is a steal. He does have risk, but the ability is there. Aaron Stecker is always hurt. Deuce may not be healthy again in his career. There will be opportunity for the former Illinois star.

Michael Bush

Michael Bush saw his draft stock drop with the injury his last season at Louisville. This injury led to Bush falling all of the way down to the fourth round of the 2007 NFL Draft. Many thought that Bush would be a first round pick before the injury. The big back is nimble and reminded some of Jerome Bettis while in college. With the addition of Darren McFadden, the upside for Bush is limited unless the rookie from Arkansas is injured.

Outlook: Michael Bush was injured all of his rookie season. The team did run the ball well with Lamont Jordan and Justin Fargas. Lane Kiffin is a coach that knows how to run the ball. The team drafted the most explosive back in the draft and will pay him lots and lots of money. This situation looks like a committee going forward. The Raiders do need an effective running game to keep the pressure off of young passer JaMarcus Russell.
Store: The Gap
Price: A 2009 2nd round pick or a decent prospect.
Recommendation: Hold or Sell. It is not yet known what role Bush will have while sharing carries with McFadden and veteran Justin Fargas. It is assumed that the former Louisville Cardinal will be the short yardage runner, but anything beyond that is not yet known. The Raiders are not a good team and the upside of a big back sharing carries is not great. Let someone else pay that price. It is difficult to foresee Michael Bush as a viable fantasy back.

This list was limited to younger backups. I purposely omitted Ladell Betts and Chester Taylor, even though both have tremendous upside in the short term. Every dynasty team should have at least a couple of ball carriers with potential on the roster. If you only roster players with a known ceiling, it is much more difficult to have several strong seasons in a row. There is a good group of young running backs in the NFL. Dynasty owners are advised to start acquiring these youngsters before the season starts.