Dynasty Shopping Mall - Injured QBs

Posted 10/29 by Jeff Tefertiller, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

Just like any other shopping mall, this one will have different products at different levels of quality and price. In this series, we will shop around at different stores like Bloomingdales, Macy's, Sears, even the Dollar Store and look for products to buy. The focus will be on value. Many times the expensive products are worth the price. Some times they are not. We will examine opportunities to buy at a reasonable price compared to value. The products we are purchasing are fantasy players for our dynasty team. This study will examine purchasing injured quarterbacks for your fantasy team. The season has been especially hard on the quarterback position. Several key players at the position have been nicked up the last few weeks. Even the passers who are back from injury are not 100% healthy. Given the longer timeline in dynasty leagues, injuries create value situations to buy a player.

Tony Romo

Tony Romo was considered by many as the premier fantasy passer before injuring his finger in week six against the Arizona Cardinals. The Cowboys have elite weapons in receiver in Terrell Owens, Roy Williams and tight end Jason Witten. The laid back persona of Romo has helped him deal with all of the hoopla surrounding the Cowboys. The team has a strong running game, anchored by Marion Barber III. Barber is a strong runner that keeps defenses honest. Rookies Felix Jones and Tashard Choice spell Barber when need be. The offensive line was allowing other teams to get hits on Romo the last couple of games before the injury. This is a major concern. The line is on the old side and needs revamping for Romo to be a great long-term option.

Outlook: Tony Romo broke his pinkie finger in the game against the Cardinals. He probably will not be back in the lineup until after the team's week ten bye. He is having difficulty taking snaps from center. Long-term, the injury should not be a factor so there is little risk. He has good weapons and will be back for the stretch run.
Store: Bloomingdales
Price: A 2009 1st round pick and a lot more .
Recommendation: Buy if you can acquire Romo at a reasonable price. He is a stud fantasy quarterback and the injury might provide the ideal buying opportunity.

Jon Kitna

Jon Kitna is now on injury reserve, ending his season. He has said that he could have come back from the back injury, but the Lions put him on the shelf for 2008. Most likely in the offseason, the Lions will look to trade the veteran passer to a quarterback-starved team. If they were going to just release him, they would have during the season and let him play elsewhere in 2008. Jon Kitna has been a decent fantasy passer and still could make a difference in 2009 depending on where he lands.

Outlook: The Detroit Lions are hoping to sell Kitna to the highest bidder in the offseason. They will be lucky to get a late round pick during the draft. The Lions are a bad team that will be evaluating its younger players. The team is a long way away from needed the services of the aging ex-Bengal. He will have a tough time finding a starting gig, but could be a serviceable backup, ala Brad Johnson or Gus Frerotte.
Store: Dollar Store
Price: Waiver Wire or 4th round pick.
Recommendation: Hold or sell until we know where he lands. Until then, there are better options.

Carson Palmer

Carson Palmer is still battling an elbow injury that has derailed the Bengal passing game. There are reports out that Palmer might miss the rest of the season. Even if he does make it back at some point, Palmer will likely be recovering from the injury for most of the fantasy season. Looking ahead to 2009, T.J. Houshmandzadeh will be a free agent and Chad Johnson will be declaring how he wants to be traded. There is a decent chance that the Cincinnati offense will look much different next season. Also, what are the chances that Chris Henry stays out of trouble for an entire calendar year?

Outlook: Carson Palmer had been a top fantasy passer for several years coming into the 2008 season. The elbow injury and overall poor play by the offense has led to him being just another average quarterback. An owner buying Palmer at this point would be taking a big risk, unless the price is very right. The Bengals are still waiting for the two rookie receivers to step up and make a difference. The offense has no running game. The team is a mess right now and will probably make wholesale changes in the offseason.
Store: Macy's
Price: A 2009 1st round pick and a decent quarterback prospect.
Recommendation: Hold or Sell. Fantasy owners would be best off upping the offer to get Brady or Romo. Palmer becomes more attractive the cheaper the price becomes. Elbow injuries are not for the faint of heart. If he requires surgery, it will be of the "Tommy John" variety.

Tom Brady

Brady has been out since week one. His owners are struggling to replace the production of their star passer. The veteran quarterback has already had his knee surgery and should be back at full strength by the start of training camp. He should enjoy the full complement of receivers he had in 2007 when the records fell like rain. We need to remember the season Brady had last year when he threw for 50 touchdowns. There is a valid concern due to the age and injury history of the offensive line. Also, keep an eye on Brady's rehab. It has been reported that he had an infection in the knee that had to be cleaned out. It is a situation to monitor.

Outlook: The New England Patriots are counting down the days until their star comes back. Brady has another two or three seasons left with elite production. Randy Moss is still young enough to be productive with Brady under center. Welker will be back to serve as the security blanket. The stage will be set for another big season out of the Patriot passing game in 2009.
Store: Bloomingdales
Price: 2009 1st round pick and a very good player.
Recommendation: Buy. He is one of the true studs in fantasy football. The concerns are the price and the multiple medical procedures. For what Brady may cost, a savvy owner might offer the same deal to the Brees, Cutler and Romo owners and get production in 2008. But, in the end, he is still a great player to buy this season.

Vince Young

Vince Young has battled some personal problems in addition to an injury this season. Kerry Collins has played well enough to keep the former Longhorn on the sideline. Young has talent and could be a top fantasy option if used in the right ways. He is not a drop back passing quarterback. Anyone who has watched the Titans could tell you that. Young will only be productive if an offense is built around his skillset. But, that skillset is diverse and full of ability.

Outlook: Vince Young must prove his toughness to his coaches, fans, teammates, and most of all, himself. Collins has led the Titans to an impressive unbeaten record and is entrenched as the starter until or unless injury. It might be in another year and another team before Young emerges. There may be too much history for him to excel in Tennessee.
Store: Old Navy
Price: 2009 2nd and a good prospect.
Recommendation: Buy if you can acquire cheap enough and have faith in Young's ability. He could emerge as a starter very soon in an offense better suited to his abilities.

The stud quarterback is one that is difficult to acquire unless an owner overpays by a ton. These injuries might be the catalyst to buying great future production at a reasonable price.