Goose Chase
Posted 10/30 by Chase Stuart, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
QBBC Update
In the preseason, I wrote an article suggesting fantasy players to use a QBBC strategy in their fantasy drafts and auctions. Last week you started David Garrard, and he came through with 30.05 fantasy points. Through eight weeks, the QBBC has scored 197.55 fantasy points. That's an average of 24.7 FP/G, which ranks behind just five other quarterbacks.
Rodgers has a really tough matchup this week against Tennessee. Start Garrard against the Bengals, instead.
DTBC Update
In the preseason, I suggested fantasy players also follow a defensive team by committee strategy. For the second straight week, the DTBC underwhelmed. This time it was the Bills, who scored just three points against Miami last weekend. That gives the DTBC 70 fantasy points on the year, which puts the committee at DT15.
This week, start the Bills against the Jets. The Saints are on a bye, and Brett Favre has been giving interceptions like they're retirement announcements.
Top Fantasy Players
This week, I'm going to provide you with a list of the top fantasy players so far this year. When most people make these lists, they look just at total fantasy points. The problem with that is a player who averaged 20 FP/G over 10 games is more valuable than one who has 15 FP/G over 15 games, even though the latter has more fantasy points. On the other hand, we can't just look at fantasy points per game - there is a real value in having more great games than fewer great games. What I like to use is something called adjusted fantasy points; that is, for every week of the season in which the player didn't play, you add some number to his season fantasy point total. What number do we add? I like to use the average backup method.
For quarterbacks, this means the 18th best quarterback, ranked by fantasy points per game. This year that player is Gus Frerotte, who has averaged 15.1 FP/G this year. Here are the top 16 fantasy quarterbacks this year, using that formula:
|
player
|
team
|
gp
|
pyd
|
ptd
|
pint
|
rsh
|
ryd
|
rtd
|
fp
|
FP/g
|
AdjFP
|
rk
|
|
Drew Brees
|
nor
|
8
|
2563
|
15
|
7
|
11
|
-7
|
0
|
188.5
|
23.6
|
188.5
|
1
|
|
Philip Rivers
|
sdg
|
8
|
2038
|
19
|
6
|
9
|
8
|
0
|
185.7
|
23.2
|
185.7
|
2
|
|
Aaron Rodgers
|
gnb
|
7
|
1668
|
12
|
4
|
30
|
113
|
3
|
164.7
|
23.5
|
179.8
|
3
|
|
Kurt Warner
|
crd
|
7
|
2089
|
14
|
6
|
9
|
5
|
0
|
163
|
23.3
|
178.1
|
4
|
|
Tony Romo
|
dal
|
6
|
1689
|
14
|
5
|
11
|
7
|
0
|
145.2
|
24.2
|
175.4
|
5
|
|
Jay Cutler
|
den
|
7
|
1861
|
13
|
7
|
21
|
84
|
0
|
152.5
|
21.8
|
167.6
|
6
|
|
Matt Schaub
|
htx
|
6
|
1623
|
10
|
7
|
20
|
54
|
2
|
134.6
|
22.4
|
164.8
|
7
|
|
Donovan McNabb
|
phi
|
7
|
1829
|
8
|
3
|
17
|
45
|
1
|
136
|
19.4
|
151.1
|
8
|
|
Brett Favre
|
nyj
|
7
|
1611
|
15
|
11
|
11
|
16
|
0
|
135.2
|
19.3
|
150.3
|
9
|
|
Kyle Orton
|
chi
|
7
|
1669
|
10
|
4
|
11
|
38
|
0
|
129.3
|
18.5
|
144.4
|
10
|
|
Peyton Manning
|
clt
|
7
|
1754
|
10
|
9
|
11
|
18
|
1
|
127.5
|
18.2
|
142.6
|
11
|
|
Eli Manning
|
nyg
|
7
|
1588
|
9
|
4
|
10
|
7
|
1
|
123.1
|
17.6
|
138.2
|
12
|
|
David Garrard
|
jax
|
7
|
1542
|
6
|
4
|
37
|
161
|
1
|
121.2
|
17.3
|
136.3
|
13
|
|
Jason Campbell
|
was
|
8
|
1754
|
8
|
0
|
24
|
62
|
0
|
133.9
|
16.7
|
133.9
|
14
|
|
Chad Pennington
|
mia
|
7
|
1710
|
7
|
3
|
12
|
29
|
0
|
117.4
|
16.8
|
132.5
|
15
|
|
Jake Delhomme
|
car
|
8
|
1781
|
9
|
5
|
10
|
9
|
0
|
125
|
15.6
|
125
|
16
|
For running backs, we'd want to look at the 30th best running back -- that'd be Le'Ron McClain He's averaging 9 FP/G so far this year. According to this list, Brian Westbrook has been more valuable to fantasy teams than Frank Gore this year; his high FP/G average is more significant than his missed time.
|
player
|
team
|
GP
|
rsh
|
ryd
|
rtd
|
rec
|
ryd
|
rtd
|
FP
|
FP/g
|
AdjFP
|
rk
|
|
Clinton Portis
|
was
|
8
|
187
|
944
|
7
|
11
|
77
|
0
|
144.1
|
18
|
144.1
|
1
|
|
Marion Barber
|
dal
|
8
|
153
|
611
|
5
|
32
|
276
|
2
|
130.7
|
16.3
|
130.7
|
2
|
|
Brian Westbrook
|
phi
|
5
|
76
|
361
|
6
|
20
|
139
|
2
|
98
|
19.6
|
125.1
|
3
|
|
Frank Gore
|
sfo
|
8
|
136
|
629
|
4
|
32
|
311
|
1
|
124
|
15.5
|
124
|
4
|
|
Matt Forte
|
chi
|
7
|
147
|
515
|
4
|
29
|
223
|
2
|
109.8
|
15.7
|
118.8
|
5
|
|
Steven Jackson
|
ram
|
6
|
121
|
508
|
4
|
25
|
259
|
0
|
100.7
|
16.8
|
118.8
|
6
|
|
Adrian Peterson
|
min
|
7
|
151
|
684
|
5
|
12
|
65
|
0
|
104.9
|
15
|
113.9
|
7
|
|
Michael Turner
|
atl
|
7
|
145
|
655
|
6
|
3
|
11
|
0
|
102.6
|
14.7
|
111.6
|
8
|
|
Chris Johnson
|
oti
|
7
|
122
|
626
|
4
|
18
|
92
|
1
|
101.8
|
14.5
|
110.8
|
9
|
|
Ronnie Brown
|
mia
|
7
|
98
|
406
|
7
|
12
|
113
|
0
|
99.9
|
14.3
|
108.9
|
10
|
|
LaDainian Tomlinson
|
sdg
|
8
|
142
|
551
|
4
|
29
|
215
|
1
|
106.6
|
13.3
|
106.6
|
11
|
|
Marshawn Lynch
|
buf
|
7
|
124
|
461
|
6
|
24
|
147
|
0
|
96.8
|
13.8
|
105.8
|
12
|
|
Steve Slaton
|
htx
|
7
|
104
|
476
|
5
|
22
|
125
|
1
|
96.1
|
13.7
|
105.1
|
13
|
|
Reggie Bush
|
nor
|
7
|
87
|
294
|
2
|
42
|
366
|
3
|
96
|
13.7
|
105
|
14
|
|
Brandon Jacobs
|
nyg
|
7
|
114
|
563
|
6
|
5
|
31
|
0
|
95.4
|
13.6
|
104.4
|
15
|
|
LenDale White
|
oti
|
7
|
90
|
327
|
10
|
3
|
8
|
0
|
93.5
|
13.4
|
102.5
|
16
|
|
Thomas Jones
|
nyj
|
7
|
122
|
532
|
4
|
14
|
66
|
1
|
89.8
|
12.8
|
98.8
|
17
|
|
Maurice Jones-Drew
|
jax
|
7
|
77
|
330
|
5
|
24
|
203
|
0
|
83.3
|
11.9
|
92.3
|
18
|
|
DeAngelo Williams
|
car
|
8
|
121
|
525
|
3
|
12
|
76
|
2
|
90.1
|
11.3
|
90.1
|
19
|
|
Willie Parker
|
pit
|
3
|
66
|
263
|
3
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
44.3
|
14.8
|
89.4
|
20
|
|
Earnest Graham
|
tam
|
8
|
112
|
498
|
4
|
18
|
145
|
0
|
88.3
|
11
|
88.3
|
21
|
|
Larry Johnson
|
kan
|
5
|
93
|
417
|
3
|
6
|
12
|
0
|
60.9
|
12.2
|
88
|
22
|
|
Jamal Lewis
|
cle
|
7
|
129
|
484
|
3
|
12
|
107
|
0
|
77.1
|
11
|
86.1
|
23
|
|
Sammy Morris
|
nwe
|
6
|
69
|
307
|
4
|
12
|
90
|
0
|
63.7
|
10.6
|
81.8
|
24
|
|
Willis McGahee
|
rav
|
6
|
100
|
351
|
3
|
13
|
104
|
0
|
63.5
|
10.6
|
81.6
|
25
|
|
Joseph Addai
|
clt
|
5
|
62
|
216
|
4
|
5
|
29
|
0
|
48.5
|
9.7
|
75.6
|
26
|
|
Julius Jones
|
sea
|
7
|
103
|
468
|
2
|
10
|
65
|
0
|
65.3
|
9.3
|
74.3
|
27
|
|
Kevin Faulk
|
nwe
|
6
|
36
|
212
|
2
|
20
|
167
|
1
|
55.9
|
9.3
|
74
|
28
|
|
Michael Pittman
|
den
|
7
|
69
|
317
|
4
|
8
|
91
|
0
|
64.8
|
9.3
|
73.8
|
29
|
|
Mewelde Moore
|
pit
|
7
|
65
|
322
|
3
|
13
|
78
|
1
|
64
|
9.1
|
73
|
30
|
For tight ends, it's the 18th best tight end -- Heath Miller. He's averaging 4.3 FP/G.
|
player
|
team
|
GP
|
rec
|
ryd
|
rtd
|
FP
|
FP/g
|
AdjFP
|
rk
|
|
Antonio Gates
|
sdg
|
8
|
30
|
403
|
5
|
70.3
|
8.8
|
70.3
|
1
|
|
Jason Witten
|
dal
|
8
|
46
|
549
|
2
|
66.9
|
8.4
|
66.9
|
2
|
|
Tony Gonzalez
|
kan
|
7
|
33
|
369
|
3
|
54.9
|
7.8
|
59.2
|
3
|
|
Owen Daniels
|
htx
|
7
|
32
|
395
|
2
|
51.5
|
7.4
|
55.8
|
4
|
|
Dallas Clark
|
clt
|
6
|
27
|
328
|
2
|
44.8
|
7.5
|
53.4
|
5
|
|
Chris Cooley
|
was
|
8
|
40
|
451
|
1
|
51.1
|
6.4
|
51.1
|
6
|
|
Tony Scheffler
|
den
|
5
|
16
|
259
|
2
|
37.9
|
7.6
|
50.8
|
7
|
|
Anthony Fasano
|
mia
|
7
|
19
|
251
|
3
|
43.1
|
6.2
|
47.4
|
8
|
|
Greg Olsen
|
chi
|
7
|
22
|
296
|
2
|
41.6
|
5.9
|
45.9
|
9
|
|
Visanthe Shiancoe
|
min
|
7
|
17
|
223
|
3
|
40.3
|
5.8
|
44.6
|
10
|
|
Bo Scaife
|
oti
|
7
|
28
|
318
|
1
|
37.8
|
5.4
|
42.1
|
11
|
|
Zach Miller
|
rai
|
7
|
20
|
312
|
1
|
37.2
|
5.3
|
41.5
|
12
|
|
John Carlson
|
sea
|
7
|
20
|
214
|
2
|
33.4
|
4.8
|
37.7
|
13
|
|
Kellen Winslow
|
cle
|
5
|
21
|
187
|
1
|
24.7
|
4.9
|
37.6
|
14
|
|
Billy Miller
|
nor
|
7
|
23
|
323
|
0
|
32.3
|
4.6
|
36.6
|
15
|
|
David Martin
|
mia
|
7
|
18
|
253
|
1
|
31.3
|
4.5
|
35.6
|
16
|
|
Marcedes Lewis
|
jax
|
7
|
13
|
185
|
2
|
30.5
|
4.4
|
34.8
|
17
|
|
Heath Miller
|
pit
|
7
|
21
|
240
|
1
|
30
|
4.3
|
34.3
|
18
|
For wide receivers, Antonio Bryant is the average backup -- he's WR 42 in fantasy points per game. He's averaging 6.4 FP/G.
|
player
|
team
|
GP
|
rsh
|
ryd
|
rtd
|
rec
|
ryd
|
rtd
|
FP
|
FP/g
|
Adj FP
|
rk
|
|
Anquan Boldin
|
crd
|
5
|
1
|
30
|
0
|
36
|
429
|
7
|
87.9
|
17.6
|
107.1
|
1
|
|
Roddy White
|
atl
|
7
|
1
|
2
|
0
|
43
|
679
|
5
|
98.1
|
14
|
104.5
|
2
|
|
Larry Fitzgerald
|
crd
|
7
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
43
|
661
|
5
|
96.1
|
13.7
|
102.5
|
3
|
|
Greg Jennings
|
gnb
|
7
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
37
|
685
|
4
|
92.5
|
13.2
|
98.9
|
4
|
|
Santana Moss
|
was
|
8
|
1
|
27
|
0
|
42
|
658
|
5
|
98.5
|
12.3
|
98.5
|
5
|
|
Steve Smith
|
car
|
6
|
1
|
-6
|
0
|
33
|
613
|
4
|
84.7
|
14.1
|
97.5
|
6
|
|
Calvin Johnson
|
det
|
7
|
2
|
5
|
0
|
29
|
588
|
5
|
89.3
|
12.8
|
95.7
|
7
|
|
Andre Johnson
|
htx
|
7
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
56
|
772
|
2
|
89.2
|
12.7
|
95.6
|
8
|
|
Lee Evans
|
buf
|
7
|
1
|
22
|
0
|
31
|
637
|
3
|
83.9
|
12
|
90.3
|
9
|
|
Brandon Marshall
|
den
|
6
|
2
|
-4
|
0
|
49
|
598
|
3
|
77.4
|
12.9
|
90.2
|
10
|
|
Reggie Wayne
|
clt
|
7
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
38
|
521
|
4
|
76.1
|
10.9
|
82.5
|
11
|
|
Vincent Jackson
|
sdg
|
8
|
1
|
31
|
0
|
30
|
538
|
4
|
80.9
|
10.1
|
80.9
|
12
|
|
Laveranues Coles
|
nyj
|
7
|
2
|
9
|
0
|
37
|
433
|
5
|
74.2
|
10.6
|
80.6
|
13
|
|
Randy Moss
|
nwe
|
7
|
1
|
2
|
0
|
32
|
471
|
4
|
71.3
|
10.2
|
77.7
|
14
|
|
Hines Ward
|
pit
|
7
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
31
|
406
|
5
|
70.6
|
10.1
|
77
|
15
|
|
Bernard Berrian
|
min
|
7
|
1
|
3
|
0
|
28
|
517
|
3
|
70
|
10
|
76.4
|
16
|
|
Terrell Owens
|
dal
|
8
|
4
|
25
|
0
|
30
|
431
|
5
|
75.6
|
9.5
|
75.6
|
17
|
|
Kevin Walter
|
htx
|
7
|
2
|
10
|
0
|
29
|
363
|
5
|
67.3
|
9.6
|
73.7
|
18
|
|
Chris Chambers
|
sdg
|
6
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
16
|
273
|
5
|
57.4
|
9.6
|
70.2
|
19
|
|
T.J. Houshmandzadeh
|
cin
|
8
|
1
|
9
|
0
|
54
|
512
|
3
|
70.1
|
8.8
|
70.1
|
20
|
|
Dwayne Bowe
|
kan
|
7
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
40
|
512
|
2
|
63.2
|
9
|
69.6
|
21
|
|
Donnie Avery
|
ram
|
6
|
4
|
38
|
1
|
21
|
347
|
2
|
56.5
|
9.4
|
69.3
|
22
|
|
Devery Henderson
|
nor
|
8
|
1
|
7
|
0
|
18
|
499
|
3
|
68.6
|
8.6
|
68.6
|
23
|
|
DeSean Jackson
|
phi
|
7
|
6
|
50
|
0
|
32
|
505
|
1
|
61.5
|
8.8
|
67.9
|
24
|
|
Jerricho Cotchery
|
nyj
|
7
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
36
|
430
|
3
|
61
|
8.7
|
67.4
|
25
|
|
Plaxico Burress
|
nyg
|
6
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
28
|
356
|
3
|
53.6
|
8.9
|
66.4
|
26
|
|
Eddie Royal
|
den
|
6
|
3
|
15
|
0
|
39
|
392
|
2
|
52.7
|
8.8
|
65.5
|
27
|
|
Isaac Bruce
|
sfo
|
8
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
23
|
399
|
4
|
63.9
|
8
|
63.9
|
28
|
|
Matt Jones
|
jax
|
7
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
37
|
444
|
2
|
56.4
|
8.1
|
62.8
|
29
|
|
Muhsin Muhammad
|
car
|
8
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
37
|
507
|
2
|
62.7
|
7.8
|
62.7
|
30
|
|
Lance Moore
|
nor
|
8
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
38
|
431
|
3
|
61.1
|
7.6
|
61.1
|
31
|
|
Wes Welker
|
nwe
|
7
|
1
|
19
|
0
|
49
|
466
|
1
|
54.5
|
7.8
|
60.9
|
32
|
|
Steve Breaston
|
crd
|
7
|
1
|
4
|
0
|
37
|
464
|
1
|
52.8
|
7.5
|
59.2
|
33
|
|
Sinorice Moss
|
nyg
|
2
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
5
|
68
|
2
|
18.8
|
9.4
|
57.1
|
34
|
|
Nate Burleson
|
sea
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
5
|
60
|
1
|
12
|
12
|
56.7
|
35
|
|
Brandon Lloyd
|
chi
|
4
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
15
|
249
|
1
|
30.9
|
7.7
|
56.5
|
36
|
|
Santonio Holmes
|
pit
|
6
|
1
|
10
|
0
|
22
|
360
|
1
|
43
|
7.2
|
55.8
|
37
|
|
Braylon Edwards
|
cle
|
7
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
22
|
371
|
2
|
49.1
|
7
|
55.5
|
38
|
|
Nate Washington
|
pit
|
7
|
2
|
14
|
0
|
16
|
290
|
3
|
48.4
|
6.9
|
54.8
|
39
|
|
Derrick Mason
|
rav
|
7
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
34
|
421
|
1
|
48.1
|
6.9
|
54.5
|
40
|
|
Antwaan Randle El
|
was
|
8
|
1
|
5
|
0
|
33
|
409
|
1
|
53.9
|
6.7
|
53.9
|
41
|
|
Donald Driver
|
gnb
|
7
|
1
|
6
|
0
|
29
|
330
|
2
|
45.6
|
6.5
|
52
|
42
|
Note that this should match up with your intuition. For example, Anquan Boldin ranks ahead of Larry Fitzgerald, even though Fitzgerald has 8.2 more fantasy points this season. But when Bolding was injured for two games, you would have been able to find a suitable backup receiver to plug into your lineup and gain ten or fifteen total points without too much difficulty. Therefore, Boldin ranks ahead of Fitzgerald on this list.
As always, send any questions or comments to stuart@footballguys.com.
