Goose Chase

  Posted 11/12 by Chase Stuart, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

QBBC Update

In the preseason, I wrote an article suggesting fantasy players use a QBBC strategy in their fantasy drafts and auctions. Last week, I said to start Aaron Rodgers over David Garrard, and that decision backfired for the second week in a row. This time, Garrard crushed Rodgers, who had just 7.2 fantasy points. On the season, the QBBC now has 216.5 fantasy points. That 21.7 FP/G average ranks behind six other quarterbacks.

This week, start Rodgers against the Bears. David Garrard is in trouble against the Titans, so start Rodgers even though he doesn't have a terrific matchup.

DTBC Update

In the preseason, I advised fantasy players to also follow a defensive team by committee strategy. Last week I told you to start the Bills against the Patriots, and the Buffalo D scored only three fantasy points. That gives the DTBC 84 fantasy points on the year.

This week, start the Saints defense against the Chiefs. New Orleans defense isn't very good, but at some point Tyler Thigpen is going to start throwing interceptions again. Let's hope it is this week.

Rookie Wall

Is there such a thing as the rookie wall? A few years ago, I looked at that question here and determined that running backs actually improve as their rookie season progresses. I could have sworn I looked at this again last year, but I can't seem to locate where (if anywhere) I published it. But I've still got the data, so I thought I'd explain it here.

I checked the rookie seasons of all RBs with at least 200 rushing yards between 1995 and 2006. I then used a weighted average of their weekly results and compared that to their actual results. The first game of the season was worth X; the second game was worth 2X; the third game was weighted as 3X, all the way up to 16X if the player played every game. For example, if a RB ran for 10 yards, 20 yards, 30 yards,...160 yards in each of his sixteen games, he'd have 1,360 rushing yards. If you weight each week's performance more heavily than the previous one, you'd get 1,760 yards. So if a RB's prorated totals are higher than his raw numbers, that means he played better later in the season than early in the year.

Of the 105 running backs in the study, the group averaged 153 carries, 622 rushing yards, 4.11 YPC, 5.0 rushing touchdowns and 170 receiving yards. The group's prorated numbers averaged to 170 carries, 667 yards, 4.16 YPC, 5.4 rushing touchdowns and 181 receiving yards. This means the rookie running backs improved as the season progressed in every major category.

If you limit the sample to just running backs with 200+ carries as rookies, they averaged 271 carries, 1,139 yards, 4.21 YPC, 9.0 rushing touchdowns and 247 receiving yards. The group's prorated numbers were 288 carries, 1,226 yards, 4.26 YPC, 9.7 TDs and 261 receiving yards. Once again, improvement across the board.

This is very strong evidence that rookie running backs tend to improve as the season progresses. That's very good news if you've got Matt Forte, or Chris Johnson, or even Steve Slaton, Kevin Smith, Tim Hightower or Ray Rice. Last year, Adrian Peterson bucked the trend (raw total of 239 FP; prorated total of 208 FP) but Marshawn Lynch canceled him out (raw total of 177 FP; prorated total of 193 FP). This is the time in your fantasy season where the games matter so much that you're likely to over-think yourselves. Don't worry about a rookie wall, don't worry about your rookie running back fading, and don't worry that he won't perform when it matters most. If history is our guide, rookie RBs only tend to get better.

For those curious, here's a list of the top 15 RB finishers and RB faders. I'm using the difference between total yards actually gained and total yards gained when you weigh the late season results more heavily, for all rookies from 1995-2006:

And the 15 biggest faders:

Best of luck this weekend! Send any questions or comments to stuart@footballguys.com.