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Goose Chase

  Posted 11/5 by Chase Stuart, Exclusive to Footballguys.com


QBBC Update

In the preseason, I wrote an article suggesting fantasy players to use a QBBC strategy in their fantasy drafts and auctions. Last week I said to start David Garrard, but he didn't get into the end zone against the Bengals. He scored just 11.75 fantasy points, bringing the season total for the QBBC to 209.3 fantasy points. That 23.26 FP/G average ranks behind five other quarterbacks, although one of them is Tony Romo.

This week, start Rodgers against the Vikings. David Garrard has a terrific matchup against the Lions, but it's hard to sit Rodgers for two straight weeks.

DTBC Update

In the preseason, I suggested fantasy players also follow a defensive team by committee strategy. Last week I told you to start the Bills against the Jets, and the Buffalo D managed to return an interception for a touchdown. Outside of that, though, they didn't do much. Buffalo scored eleven fantasy points, giving the DTBC 81 fantasy points on the year, which puts the committee right at DT15.

In the preseason, I assumed that in week 10 Buffalo would be a terrible play in New England while New Orleans would be a great play against Atlanta. Things have changed quite a bit since then, and you should go ahead and give Buffalo the start this weekend.


The Halfway Point

Now that most teams have played eight games so far, it might seem like we should have a good grasp on how the 2008 season will unfold. The truth is, we really don't know too much about what will happen, just what has happened. For example, the #1 quarterback in the second half of 2008 was the #23 ranked quarterback this time last year. Two other players out of the first half top 12 ranked in the second half top ten. The table below shows the top 24 fantasy QBs in the second half of last year, along with where they ranked in the first half of the season.

2nd Rk
1st Rk
Quarterback
1
23
Kurt Warner
2
1
Tom Brady
3
10
Drew Brees
4
8
Matt Hasselbeck
5
2
Tony Romo
6
5
Peyton Manning
7
15
Jay Cutler
8
7
Brett Favre
9
4
Ben Roethlisberger
10
19
David Garrard
11
3
Derek Anderson
12
6
Carson Palmer
13
26
Vince Young
14
11
Donovan McNabb
15
14
Philip Rivers
16
13
Eli Manning
17
36
Tarvaris Jackson
18
12
Jon Kitna
19
64
Chris Redman
20
16
Jason Campbell
21
30
Sage Rosenfels
22
28
Marc Bulger
23
58
Luke McCown
24
34
Kyle Boller

This trend isn't unique to quarterbacks, though. Two of the top five RBs didn't rank in the top 40 at the position in the first half of '07. And the number one running back in the first half fell all the way to RB31 for the second half of the season.

2nd Rk
1st Rk
Running Back
1
3
LaDainian Tomlinson
2
4
Brian Westbrook
3
62
Ryan Grant
4
46
Steven Jackson
5
15
Jamal Lewis
6
6
Clinton Portis
7
22
Frank Gore
8
45
Chester Taylor
9
40
Fred Taylor
10
18
Earnest Graham
11
30
Brandon Jacobs
12
2
Joseph Addai
13
12
Edgerrin James
14
42
Laurence Maroney
15
58
Maurice Morris
16
31
Justin Fargas
17
54
Adrian Peterson
18
8
Marion Barber
19
16
Maurice Jones-Drew
20
9
Willis McGahee
21
71
Aaron Stecker
22
38
Ron Dayne
23
19
Kenny Watson
24
23
Thomas Jones
25
14
LenDale White
26
34
DeAngelo Williams
27
117
Kolby Smith
28
48
Selvin Young
29
7
Marshawn Lynch
30
11
Willie Parker
31
1
Adrian Peterson
32
32
Warrick Dunn
33
26
Kevin Jones
34
35
Najeh Davenport
35
20
DeShaun Foster
36
47
Chris Brown

Things are a little more stable at tight end, although several players who were quiet in the first half produced big time second halves last year.

2nd Rk
1st Rk
Tight End
1
7
Chris Cooley
2
2
Jason Witten
3
3
Tony Gonzalez
4
1
Antonio Gates
5
4
Kellen Winslow
6
19
Tony Scheffler
7
5
Dallas Clark
8
12
Donald Lee
9
22
Alge Crumpler
10
10
Owen Daniels
11
15
Vernon Davis
12
32
Zach Miller
13
51
Jerramy Stevens
14
11
Desmond Clark
15
6
Heath Miller
16
28
Leonard Pope
17
43
Billy Miller
18
9
Jeremy Shockey
19
17
Randy McMichael
20
21
Alex Smith

At wide receiver, Randy Moss was the top player all year long. Outside of him, though, three players outside of the top 40 cracked the top 15 list in the second half. And WR2 fell all the way to WR29 once the weather got cold. Here's the full list:

2nd Rk
1st Rk
Wide Receiver
1
1
Randy Moss
2
17
Larry Fitzgerald
3
5
Terrell Owens
4
7
Reggie Wayne
5
21
Brandon Marshall
6
16
Marques Colston
7
8
Chad Johnson
8
3
Braylon Edwards
9
51
Andre Johnson
10
22
Roddy White
11
15
Greg Jennings
12
14
Torry Holt
13
43
Reggie Williams
14
41
Nate Burleson
15
26
Anquan Boldin
16
18
Bobby Engram
17
24
Derrick Mason
18
65
Santana Moss
19
6
Plaxico Burress
20
42
Hines Ward
21
35
Bernard Berrian
22
56
Reggie Brown
23
36
Chris Chambers
24
77
Justin Gage
25
62
Isaac Bruce
26
25
Dwayne Bowe
27
23
Shaun McDonald
28
12
Kevin Curtis
29
2
T.J. Houshmandzadeh
30
98
Jabar Gaffney
31
4
Wes Welker
32
59
Roydell Williams
33
10
Steve Smith
34
38
Calvin Johnson
35
40
Jerry Porter
36
82
Anthony Gonzalez
37
70
Bobby Wade
38
11
Santonio Holmes
39
19
Jerricho Cotchery
40
30
Lee Evans
41
27
Donald Driver
42
89
Ernest Wilford
43
48
Arnaz Battle
44
55
Deion Branch
45
150
Devard Darling
46
45
David Patten
47
29
Patrick Crayton
48
47
Amani Toomer

It's important to keep in mind that the rest of 2008 is unknown, just like the entire 2008 was unknown a couple of months ago. Fantasy players understand now that their preseason rankings won't end up matching what actually happens all that often; but they should know that their second half predictions probably wouldn't fare much better even after seeing the first nine weeks of the season.

Best of luck this weekend! Send any questions or comments to stuart@footballguys.com.