Defensive Team By Committee

  Posted 8/11 by Chase Stuart, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

For six straight years, Footballguys.com has promoted the defensive team by committee (DTBC) strategy to help fantasy players dominate their leagues. Fantasy defenses are inconsistent from year to year, so predicting which defenses and special teams (D/STs) will do well is very difficult. The problem, of course, is that a lower pick usually means less of a reward. So how do you get great production while saving your most important draft picks? We spend countless hours analyzing team offenses, and relatively few thinking about team defenses. But an average defense against a bad offense will do just as well as a great defense against an average offense. The key to the DTBC system is to find two teams available late in your draft, whose combined schedule features prominently weak offenses. Since you start your defense based on matchups, and your D/ST will usually oppose a weak offense, your D/ST position will score lots of fantasy points.

Last year was a historic season for the DTBC. As detailed here, the suggested committee was Minnesota (average draft position of D/ST 12) and Tennessee (undrafted in most leagues). During the season, I chronicled the success of the committee each week and suggested which team to start each game in my weekly Goose Chase column. For the fantasy season, the committee scored 249 fantasy points. Since there's no week 17 in the fantasy season, we can compare the 16 week fantasy season to the actual 16 game season of every team (remember, the DTBC is never on a bye). How did those 249 FP compare?

The top D/ST was the San Diego Chargers at 224 fantasy points. The Vikings scored 184 FP, while the 12th defensive team (the baseline for VBD purposes) was the Jaguars at 167 fantasy points. This means the DTBC outscored every single team in the league, including each of its two components. And that's not using the higher score of the committee each week, but rather the suggested team for each week. Those two very late round draft picks ended up bringing 82 points of VBD value (249 - 184), which was more than all but thirteen fantasy players in the league. For some perspective, the great Peyton Manning had only 81 points of VBD value last year. This wasn't just good in theory - I was thrilled to hear that many readers e-mailed me in January exclaiming that they won their fantasy leagues and credit their success to the performances of the Vikings and Titans defenses.

But enough about last year. When picking a D/ST committee, you should look for four factors:

• A very easy combined schedule
• Two teams with late average draft positions (ADPs)
• Big play ability - think pass rushers and defensive backs with good hands
• Reason to expect improvement in 2008

The first step in creating the DTBC system is to grade the offenses. I've used the Footballguys.com projections to rank the offenses, scoring them the following way: (0.3 x Points scored) + (0.03 x Total Yards) - (2 x Interceptions thrown) - (2 x Fumbles lost). Each team's projection is shown in the first column in the table, along with their projected rank, and how they ranked under the scoring system in 2007. While most leagues award significant points for sacks, I don't factor them in because sacks allowed predictions aren't very accurate, so their inclusion will reduce the reliability of the system. But we'll absolutely keep pass rushers in mind when we select the DTBC.

Not surprisingly, the Packers offense figures to be worse with the departure of Brett Favre, although the Jets don't project to be that much better with him, either. (Favre was already a Jet at the time of this writing.) The Rams offense should be a lot healthier and more potent this year, while Footballguys is skeptical that the Browns offense will be fantastic again in 2008. The Bears ranked 22nd in 2007, but all signs point to the Chicago offense being the worst in the NFC this season.

After grading the offenses, I went through the NFL schedule and assigned the corresponding projection for each opponent that every team played. For example, when the Jets host the Patriots in week 2, New York's D/ST receives 311 points. However, for road games, an additional five points are added, so when the Steelers travel to Foxboro in week 13, Pittsburgh's D/ST gets 316 points. Obviously, you want your committee to have the lowest possible number of combined points. Bye weeks are valued at 400 points to avoid combining D/STs that share the same bye week. After doing this for every game in every week, we can now rank each team's schedule and pair up the defenses to form the best possible committee. One note: I'm ranking the committees through sixteen weeks, as most fantasy leagues don't play in week 17.

2008 Defensive Team By Committee

Buffalo Bills (ADP: D/ST 16)

• DE Aaron Schobel, DE Chris Kelsay, DT Marcus Stroud, DT John McCargo
• WLB Kawika Mitchell, MLB Paul Posluszny, SLB Angelo Crowell
• SS Donte Whitner, FS Ko Simpson, CB Terrence McGee, CB Leodis McKelvin

Aaron Schobel totaled 26.5 sacks in 2005 and 2006, before seeing his sack total drop to 6.5 in 2007. Schobel's just 31 years old, and a better supporting cast should help Schobel once again hit double digit sacks in '08. Chris Kelsay isn't a big time pass rusher but plays the run well, and Ryan Denney and rookie Chris Ellis bring pass rushing skills off the bench. The big addition, quite literally, is DT Marcus Stroud. The former Jaguar is a huge body in the middle, and is one of the best run stoppers in the league when healthy. John McCargo was a first round pick in 2006, and should benefit from playing alongside Stroud this year.

At linebacker, the Bills get former Penn State star Paul Posluszny back. His rookie season ended in week three last year with a broken forearm, but he looked terrific until then. Posluszny is talented enough to be a Pro Bowl player in this league, and should drastically improve the Bills run defense. Angelo Crowell isn't a big playmaker, but he's a versatile and athletic veteran that can be counted on to produce. He's a solid tackler and at twenty-seven years old, is just entering his prime. Buffalo also signed linebacker Kawika Mitchell from the Giants, and along with Posluszny and Stroud, he's a big reason why the Bills defense will be tough to run against in '08.

The defensive backfield may be the key to the Bills 2008 season. Rookie Leodis McKelvin was the top corner selected in the draft, and is blessed with terrific speed and big play ability. If the ball gets in his hand, he could reach the end zone this year, either as a cornerback or a return man. McGee is a solid cover man and strong tackler, and added four interceptions last year. Donte Whitner was a top 10 draft pick in 2006, and was still just twenty-two years old when training camp started in July. Whitner hasn't been a big playmaker yet, but as he physically matures, he could become a Pro Bowl player. Ko Simpson, like Posluszny, had a season ending injury last September, but is healthy and ready to contribute in 2008.

Finally, the Bills special teams unit should reach the end zone a couple of times this year. Terrence McGee has five kickoff return touchdowns the past four seasons while Roscoe Parrish led the league in punt return average in 2007. Between them and McKelvin, the Bills should field one of the best return units in the league.

New Orleans Saints (ADP: undrafted)

• DE Charles Grant, NT Hollis Thomas, DT Sedrick Ellis, DE Will Smith
• SLB Scott Fujita, MLB Jonathan Vilma, WLB Scott Shanle
• CB Mike McKenzie, SS Roman Harper, FS Josh Bullocks, CB Randall Gay

Charles Grant dropped 26 pounds in the offseason, coming in at under 280 pounds for the first time in years. That should help his explosiveness and endurance, which means Grant could reach double-digit sacks for the third time in his career. Will Smith has averaged eight sacks and three forced fumbles a year since entering the league, and at 28 years old, should continue to produce at an elite level. Sedrick Ellis, the seventh pick in the '08 draft out of USC, could be the athletic big body in the middle that the Saints have longed for since La'Roi Glover left town. Hollis Thomas is an eleven year veteran tackle that should help make the adjustment to the NFL easier for Ellis. Additionally, reserve end Bobby McCray comes over from Jacksonville. The situational pass rusher had 16 combined sacks in 2005 and 2006, and should help the Saints third down pass rush this season.

The key to the Saints offseason was the trade for linebacker Jonathon Vilma, who made the Pro Bowl as a Jet in 2005. Vilma's play dropped off the past two seasons playing behind a small defensive line in a 3-4 scheme, but he'll have four talented lineman eating up blockers in front of him now. He's also recovering from offseason knee surgery, but even if he's not 100%, he'll represent a big upgrade from last year's middle linebacker, Mark Simoneau. Outside linebackers Scott Fujita and Scott Shanle aren't great athletes or playmakers, and were weak spots for New Orleans last year. Both players will benefit form playing alongside Vilma, whose athleticism can help cover some of their deficiencies.

The Saints have been methodically creating this secondary, trading for McKenzie in 2004, spending second round picks on Bullocks in 2005, Harper in 2006, and Tracy Porter in 2008, and also signing corners Gay and Jason David in each of the past two offseasons. McKenzie is coming off a torn ACL, but has had a terrific rehab and will be ready to play in week one. If healthy, he can be the key cog in the Saints' rebuilt secondary. Randall Gay returns home to the Bayou, after the former LSU star had an solid four-year stint with the Patriots. Gay isn't a terrific cover man, but he'll improve the pass defense. What the Saints corners lack in quality they may make up in depth, as David and Porter allow the Saints to put four quality corners on the field in dime packages. Safety Roman Harper is entering his third year in the league, and had nine total sacks, forced fumbles and interceptions last season. He's a big time playmaker that should have more freedom to roam with Ellis and Vilma now on the team. Safety Josh Bullocks made big strides last season, and at 25 years old, should only continue to improve.

The Combined Schedule

• Week 1 - Buffalo vs. Seattle
• Week 2 - New Orleans @ Washington
• Week 3 - Buffalo v. Oakland
• Week 4 - New Orleans vs. San Francisco
• Week 5 - Buffalo @ Arizona
• Week 6 - New Orleans vs. Oakland
• Week 7 - New Orleans @ Carolina
• Week 8 - Buffalo @ Miami
• Week 9 - Buffalo vs. New York Jets
• Week 10 - New Orleans @ Atlanta
• Week 11 - New Orleans @ Kansas City
• Week 12 - Buffalo @ Kansas City
• Week 13 - Buffalo vs. San Francisco
• Week 14 - New Orleans vs. Atlanta
• Week 15 - New Orleans @ Chicago
• Week 16 - New Orleans @ Detroit

The first two weeks project as the toughest two games in the entire season, so be sure to stick with this committee even if it starts a little slow. Of the remaining fourteen games, ten of them come against the bottom six offenses in the league. The other games against Arizona, Carolina and New York don't come against weak offenses, but those teams have turnover prone quarterbacks. Finally, the week 16 game - the fantasy championship in most weeks - could be a huge week against a Lions team that may have nothing to play for and either an inexperienced Drew Stanton or a turnover prone Jon Kitna at the helm.

Each D/STs strength of schedule

In some leagues, it's just too costly to spend two rosters spots on defenses. In larger leagues, it may not be feasible to grab two defenses that you like. If you're only drafting one defense, it still pays to know the ability level of its opponents. The Steelers and Colts, two very good defenses in recent years, play the toughest group of offenses in the league. The Chargers and Vikings D/ST are often the first two units drafted in fantasy leagues, and both have very easy schedules this year. Note that both the bye week (which was considered a 400 point week earlier in the article) and week 17 have been removed.

Lastly, here's a list of all 496 possible combinations, sorted from easiest to most difficult combined schedule. If you've still got any questions after all that, please shoot me an e-mail at stuart@footballguys.com. As you can tell, the Bills and Saints rank as the second best committee based on strength of schedule, but I project the Bills defense as noticeably better than the Kansas City defense, which is enough to make them my pick.

There has also been a request by some of the readers for a different type of table. Click here for an Excel file containing a table that should help you quickly find a strong combo if you've already drafted your first team. I'd recommend printing this and bringing it to your draft.