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Spotlight - WR Roddy White, Atlanta Falcons

Posted on 7/1, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Cecil Lammey's Thoughts

To say it was an up and down year for the Falcons in 2007 would be an understatement. The Michael Vick incident loomed over the team nearly all season long. Just when it seemed that things may be on the right track, Bobby Petrino ran off to coach Arkansas with his tail between his legs. The QB position was very much like the season -- all over the place. From Joey Harrington to Byron Leftwich to Chris Redman the Falcons just didn't have any stability. However, there was one player on that offensive unit that was a model of consistency. Roddy White finally emerged as the type of playmaking WR the Falcons envisioned when they drafted him in the 1st round of the 2005 NFL Draft. In the first 8 games of the 2007 season he had 36 receptions from 54 targets. That was pretty respectable production from a receiver that hadn't had more than 30 receptions in a single season. But, it was the way he finished the season that really made him stand out. In the final 8 games he exploded with 47 receptions from 83 targets, making an amazing season total of 137 targets! During the final half of the season he also scored 4 of his 6 TDs. Roddy seemed to have very good chemistry with QB Chris Redman, who was starting -- and putting up good numbers -- during that final stretch. Redman's reign in Atlanta was put to rest with the selection of Matt Ryan with the #3 overall pick in the 2008 NFL Draft. It will be imperative for the Falcons to get Roddy and Matt on the same page if they want to be successful through the air in 2008.

Questions about White coming into 2008:

Will he be able to develop a good chemistry with Matt Ryan?
He certainly could develop a strong relationship with Ryan, both on and off the field. Ryan is already signed, so no holdout is looming for the young QB. Matt is a very smart QB, and knows that his best shot at success early in his career relies on Roddy White. Ryan was very productive at Boston College, and his favorite targets were built similarly to White. The long bomb isn't going to be featured in the Atlanta offense, as Ryan isn't a QB that is known to air it out. What will be the norm for the Falcons is a short area passing game that plays to Matt Ryan's strengths. This type of offense also helps out a player like Roddy White, who is perfect in the short passing game.

Was he just a 1-year wonder, or is the best yet to come?
In fantasy football WRs are known to breakout in their 2nd and 3rd years. White was known to be somewhat of a project when he came out of Alabama-Birmingham. Coming in to the 2008 season, White can still be considered a work in progress. He has become tougher against press coverage, and his route running has been refined by the likes of Joe Horn. In 2007 the numbers that Roddy put up were outstanding in every category. 137 targets, 83 receptions, 1,202 yards, and 6 TDs. His targets may not go up much, in this offense he could see about 150 targets. Roddy could do better than his 60% conversion rate from targets (opportunities) to receptions (success). His yardage could see a slight increase with a better YPC, but even his best case scenario is around 1,300 yards. Touchdowns are the most unpredictable stat in fantasy football, so to proclaim him a double-digit TD maker would be a bit over the top. So when looking at the big picture White's ceiling may not be that much higher than what he achieved in 2007. However, his floor should be right around what we've already seen. Roddy White could become the model of consistency.

Will the addition of Michael Turner, and a revamped run game hurt his overall numbers?
Last season it was a committee RB approach for the Falcons, with Warrick Dunn splitting time with Jerious Norwood. In 2008 it should be the Michael Turner show on offense, but he may not get more carries than Warrick Dunn did last year. New offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey is known for his gadget plays, and also running the football effectively. A solid ground game may take some plays away from the passing game, but in the end it could help open things up when the Falcons do decide to throw. Play action could be very effective on non-obvious passing situations, and in 2007 Roddy White had over 500 receiving yards on 1st down. The addition of Michael Turner should help the entire Falcons offense, and make life easier for rookie QB Matt Ryan and thus, Roddy White.

Can he finally make big plays against better competition?
This is the one knock on Roddy White's game. His route running has improved, and it was necessary if White was to ever make the most of his natural ability. However, old habits die hard and when Roddy gets frustrated he reverts to some of his bad habits. Instead of running crisp routes, and using his quickness to full effectiveness, he will round off routes underneath. This fools no one, especially top flight DBs in the National Football League. The Falcons are handing over the offense to Matt Ryan, and he will assuredly look to White early and often. Roddy White will have to use his savvy, as well as his athleticism to get open against top teams. Whether or not he can be more than the king of garbage time is a big question mark for White coming into the season. So far his learning curve is proving to be shorter than most, and that is a very good sign.

Can he outperform his current ADP (WR24)?
Roddy White has the skill set to be a very good WR in this league. He already proved last year that he could be a top 15 WR, finishing as the 14th best WR in fantasy football. The drop in his production could come from a couple of different things. First is the new QB. If Matt Ryan can get up to speed in a hurry then it only means good things for the Falcons and Roddy White. If the defense can play better the Falcons may be in a few more games. This could actually hurt White's numbers. Over 700 yards and 4 TDs were compiled by Roddy in 2007 when the Falcons were trailing. He was clearly a player that racked up good yardage and numbers when the game was on the line. If the Falcons play closer to their competition it could mean more ball control with Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood.

Positives

• The best WR on the Falcons roster
• Tremendous route runner that knows how to set up DBs
• Fantastic run after the catch ability

Negatives

• Can disappear in big games
• Not a physical WR, will shy away from contact
• Will get jammed at the line of scrimmage too often

Final Thoughts

It doesn't matter who lines up at QB for the Falcons, Roddy White will be the top receiver on this team. Last year he was productive even though the run game, OL, D, and QB play were not as good as they are expected to be this year. If he can put up numbers with Chris Redman and Joey Harrington throwing him the ball, he can put up numbers with anyone tossing the rock. The Falcons should be improved this year, but in the end they will still play from behind a lot. This means good things for Roddy White and that passing game. Defenses will be stacking 8 and 9 in the box to stop Michael Turner and they will dare the Falcons to pass. Atlanta won't remind anybody of "The Greatest Show On Turf", but they could put up respectable numbers. If Matt Ryan struggles they can go to the proven combo of Redman and Harrington, and that will help insure that Roddy White has a 2008 season that was much like his 2007.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

The Man with the Plan:
I don't like the change of offense from pass-first to run-first (as it appears to be right now). Roddy White should still get his but I'm not sure it'll be as much as last season. He played well with 3 different starting quarterbacks last season. If/when Matt Ryan starts for the Falcons if he isn't a complete disaster he should be able to at least get the ball to White. He wasn't in a great situation last season and put up numbers but I think it got worse. Still if his value falls to the level of say where a late#2/early #3 wr would be drafted I think he's worth the risk.

rzrback77:
Several factors why Roddy White most likely will not be on my team in 08. There is another new QB and offensive system in town which usually takes some time to polish. The Falcons are really going to try to run more in 08. Last year they threw 555 passes and ran only 354 times. They replaced Warrick Dunn with Michael Turner and I definitely see an increase in rushing with a substantial decrease in the pass attempts. The decrease in attempts coupled with the QB quality projects that the rookie will start sooner rather than later and I am not a huge fan of Mr. Ryan. I just see a lot of downturn potential. I also am not a huge supporter of Roddy White. After two seasons of 29 and 30 catches, he zoomed up to 83 last year. However, there are a few other young options at WR and I see both Norwood and Turner more involved in the passing attack.

Jon_Moore:
In 2007, Roddy White broke 100 yards 5 times, with 3 separate quarterbacks. One had a quarterback ranking of 59.5, one had a qb rating of 77.2. This should indicate his numbers aren't dependent on great, or even good, quarterback play. If Matt Ryan does start all season, and stink up the place, so what, White's succeeded with it already. They also brought in a running back that should be an upgrade over what they had last year, causing defenses to focus more on the running game than they had to last season. The defense looks poised for a terrible season, after finishing 29th in points allowed AND losing Deangelo Hall. This should force Atlanta to pass alot. Everything added together, it's hard to see White falling off.

Bri:
Very good players play well no matter what the system is.

When the Bus was pounding away (in Pittsburgh), Plax and Ward did just fine.
How about the Boys with Emmitt and Irvin?
Jamal (Lewis) pounded it a lot last year and (Kellen) Winslow and Braylon (Edwards) did well.
Terrell Davis and Ed McCaffrey/Rod Smith

There's tons of examples.

A good running game does not stop a WR from doing well, if anything it helps them and they feed off each other with the D not being able to key on one facet of the offense.

Iwannabeacowboybaby!:
Roddy White caught 83 balls and 1200 yards on a terrible offense last year. He's coming into his 4th year, he's on a team where they're still trying to get over the thoughts of Vick and the talk for this season is on what could be a much improved running attack.

I see value in Roddy White. He represents value if he just duplicates what he did last season. It's easy to say you're going to be a running team heading into the season or a given game, but if you find yourself down early in the game, it's another thing to keep running the ball.

White is by far their best receiver and although I'm not liking their current QB situation heading into the season, I know either is anyone else which will lower the ADP for White which will = value.

Roddy White Projections