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Spotlight - QB Matt Schaub, Houston Texans

Posted on 6/20, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Mark Wimer's Thoughts

Matt Schaub made the Falcons deeply regret their decision to trade him away after the 2006 season. Schaub posted a 66.4 completion percentage during his 11 appearances for the Texans (192/289 for 2241 yards, 9 TDs and 9 interceptions), while helping the team reach .500 for the first time in franchise history. He was poised and confident leading the Texans after arriving from Atlanta, and looks to have a great package of the "leadership intangibles" that NFL clubs look for. This year, he'll benefit from having a year's worth of repetitions in the Texans' system , which should ease his return to the field from shoulder surgery (see below).

One of the most exciting things about Schaub entering 2008 is his supporting cast of receivers. #1 WR Andre Johnson was nothing short of spectacular when he was healthy enough to play last year, posting 60/851/8 (out of 85 targets), with an outstanding 14.2 yards-per-catch average over 9 games - it appears that his modest yards-per-catch averages from 2005 and 2006 were more a result of David Carr's problems than they were a result of Johnson's efforts. Kevin Walter and Andre Davis are steady veterans in the WR2 and WR3 roles, and Owen Daniels has become a solid pass-catching TE with top-10 fantasy numbers at his position last year (63/768/3 out of 94 opportunities in 16 games). The Texans' stable of pass catchers will give Schaub plenty of options to choose from each snap this year.

When he was on the field last year, Schaub moved the team well, but he did hit a doldrums during Weeks 5-8 (0 TDs and 4 interceptions thrown during that 4 week span). He missed time during games due to various injuriesin Weeks 6-9, and he was lost after Week 13 due to a dislocated left shoulder. Schaub had surgery on the shoulder during the offseason, but did participate in the early-May minicamp, during which coach Gary Kubiak commented "As for Matt, since we're in shorts, he'll be able to do everything. If we were in pads (hitting), I'd hold him out." With a capable backup on the squad in Sage Rosenfels, the team won't have to rush Schaub back into the lineup - hopefully he'll be well clear of the shoulder problems by the time regular season rolls around.

A potential gating factor to Schaub's fantasy upside this year is that the team would like to run a more balanced offense, with a greater emphasis on rushing the ball. That was something they wanted to do last year, too, but Ahman Green's knee woes led to an undermanned running-back-by-committee situation (the Texans relied on over-the-hill Ron Dayne to run the ball during segments of the season) - the team only attempted 417 carries as a result (22nd in the NFL) vs. 529 passes (19th in the league). If the Texans are able to stick to their blueprint this year, the QBs could once again land in the middle of the NFL pack in passing attempts - this just doesn't look like an offense that is going to generate a 4,000+ yard passer when things are proceeding according to the team's intentions, although between the 2 starting QBs they came close last year (3751 passing yards).

One other item that works against the Texans' offense in general - the team plays in perhaps the toughest division in the NFL, with outstanding defenses from top to bottom in Indianapolis, Jacksonville and Tennessee. That's 6 games a year that are guaranteed to be knock-down, drag-out fights. Also, the Texans start the season with a visit to the Steelers and then host the Ravens, followed by trips to Tennessee and to Jacksonville - that looks like an ugly way to start off the 2008 season, folks. If you are considering Schaub for part of a quarterback rotation on your fantasy squad, you'll want to target another starting-caliber player with an easier schedule during the month of September.

Positives

• Schaub is entering his second season with the Texans, which should greatly increase his comfort level in the team's offensive system
• Schaub has a great supporting cast of receivers - there is no lack of talent on this squad now-a-days
• Schaub has plenty of room to improve - he hasn't hit his performance ceiling yet and that means he'll be available for a relatively inexpensive draft pick during 2008

Negatives

• Schaub hasn't been able to stay healthy since becoming an NFL starter. There are concerns about his ability to play a full slate of 16 games
• The Texans have a capable backup in Sage Rosenfels - the leash on Schaub could be relatively short if he starts to struggle
• The Texans want to run more, throw less this season
• The Texans' schedule during September is particularly brutal, with 3 tough road games out of the first 4 starts

Final Thoughts

To sum up, entering 2008 we have in Matt Schaub a quarterback who looks promising, but who is working his shoulder/torso back into condition. He should be a quality NFL quarterback this year, and if he stays healthy throughout the year, he'll post some quality fantasy starts in weeks when the match ups are favorable. He's not a guy to avoid this season, but I wouldn't recommend making him your primary fantasy QB either - he's a guy more suited to platooning with another 1 or 2 options in a QB rotation, in my opinion.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

rzrback77:
Assuming that Andre Johnson returns to the lineup in week one, I really like the prospects for Matt Schaub in 08. Houston passed for over 3,900 yards and 24 TDs in 07, even with injuries to both Schaub and Johnson. I look for those numbers to increase in 08 and unless injured, Schaub should be the beneficiary of those passing stats.

The Man with the Plan:
Matt Schaub is one of the few qb's that would be worth handcuffing. Whether it's Schaub or Sage Rosenfels it seems like the Texans QB could have a lot of fantasy success this season. They threw for nearly 4000 last season and that's with Andre Johnson missing 7 games. Houston's offensive line should be better with their 1st round pick Duane Brown and a couple of guys returning from injury. They have weapons in Andre Johnson, Owen Daniels, Kevin Walter, Andre Davis and Jacoby Jones. If Ahman Green can come back he's be another receiving option. I doubt they'll be relying on the running game too much so there should be plenty of passing attempts. It's all lined up for Matt Schaub to have a very good season in question. The question is can he take advantage. The Texans have paid Matt Schaub a lot of money to be their star QB so he'll get every opportunity to succeed. If he doesn't however they have a good backup in Sage Rosenfels.

JKL:
Schaub is one of the players I am the highest on relative to the current expert rankings. Since we don't have a lengthy history on Schaub, people assume he is injury-prone, and that is buying you value. Also, of all his stats, his worst category was touchdowns, the one stat fantasy footballers probably focus on the most, but he was very good in several other efficiency stats, like completion percentage, yards per attempt, qb rating, and adjusted yards per attempt.

He and Andre Johnson were both hurt last year and missed playing several games together, but at this point, I don't see any reason to believe that Schaub is more of any injury risk than any other QB not named Peyton Manning, or incapable of throwing for a decent amount of touchdowns based on a small sample size. What I do see is a guy who had good efficiency stats to suggest he is the real deal if he is healthy all year, and a guy who fits the profile of other quarterback successes who were drafted outside the first round. Most of those guys were at least league average in performance stats their first season as a starter, and a good amount of them had their breakout in year two. I think, at a similar age, you have the chance to get Matt Hasselbeck version 2003 here.

TheDirtyWord:
We essentially have 1 years worth of data on Schaub. I was particularly interested in seeing others reaction to him and also how much people projected him, not in terms of his stats but just what kind of response he received. In short, he is my sleeper of the year:

In 2007, Matt Schaub finished 5th in the NFL in Completion % & 6th in the NFL in YPA. If you review the NFL over the last 5 years, here are the QB's how did this:

2007

Brady
Favre

2006

Romo (1st year as starter)
Manning
Brees

2005

Manning
Bulger

2004

Culpepper
Manning
Roethlisberger (1st year as starter)
Green

2003

Manning
Culpepper

The company you keep in accomplishing this feat in the NFL is pretty high. Obviously, there is a question as to whether Schaub can keep up this level of performance - again, we have but 1 year of data here to work with. However, the QB's who have exceled in these two areas are able to lead their offenses with a combination of efficiency, consistency and explosiveness.

For Schaub, the Texans never failed to score 16 points in any game he started and finished (8) in 2007. In addition, Schaub never threw for fewer than 225 yards in any game. In those 8 games combined, Schaub threw for:

2107 Passing Yards & 9 TD's. And he did this in large part without the services of his most dangerous weapon on offense in Andre Johnson.

You can say that with all those yards, why are his TD's not higher. Not having Johnson I think hurt Schaub's ability to have a go-to guy in TD situations and red zone opportunties. Having Johnson, the continued development of Jacoby Jones, the hopeful continuation of Andre Davis's re-emergence and the steady production and reliability of Kevin Walter gives the Texans their best WR corps ever. Add in Owen Daniels and the Texans have a passing game with significant potential. Without a bellcow in the running game or any certainty that it can be productive, it would not be surprising if the passing game took on heightened importance for the Texans in 2008. Ahman Green & Chris Brown have played in a 57 games out of a possible 96 over the last 3 seasons.

Durability I guess is Schaub's big question mark because he did miss parts of 3 games in which he did start and an additional 5 due to a shoulder injury. But I think he still deserves the benefit of the doubt on this issue since this was his first year starting and injuries can be rather random. Unlike Green and Brown mentioned above, Schuab has not built up any tangible injury history.

Matt Schaub Projections