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Spotlight - QB Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons

Posted on 6/20, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Cecil Lammey's Thoughts

If there was ever a team in need of an "Extreme Makeover" it is the Atlanta Falcons. Many off-the-field issues plagued the Falcons in 2007. From Michael Vick's prison sentence, to Bobby Petrino's mad dash to Arkansas it wasn't a good year for Arthur Blank and company. Atlanta hopes to turn over a new leaf, and Blank felt like a new franchise QB would be a great start. Drafting Matt Ryan with the 3rd overall pick in the 2008 draft signals a change in attitude for the Falcons. Ryan is known as a big, tough leader that will do anything to get the win. Boston College fans were privy to some of the grittiest performances in college football, and it was Ryan who was leading the show. Now it's the Falcons that look to be the beneficiary of Matt Ryan's on the field heroics. A large part of Ryan's success can be attributed to his tireless work ethic. Quarterback is the toughest position in football, and Ryan faces a big challenge to get up to speed in the pros. The Falcons believe that Matt Ryan can develop into a Pro Bowl quality starter just like former Boston College star Matt Hasselbeck.

Questions about Matt coming into 2008:

Will he be the starter for most of the year?
His contract is signed, so there will be no holdout for the rookie. This will only help Matt as he tries to become entrenched as the starter for years to come. Last year's #1 QB in the draft, JaMarcus Russell, failed to do much until the end of the season because of a lengthy holdout. Both the Falcons and Ryan felt that it was best to get their business done and get on with the season. He signed a huge rookie contract that includes almost $28 million in guaranteed money. This financial commitment by the Falcons will only help Ryan get on the field quicker. Arthur Blank didn't pay him that kind of money to hold a clipboard for a majority of the season. Matt is a very cerebral QB that knows how to work hard. With only Joey Harrington and Chris Redman to challenge him, Matt should get a majority of the playing time. He should be the starter for most of the season, and he could be starting as soon as Week 1.

Is the offensive line good enough to give him adequate protection?
This is a big concern, not only for Ryan, but also for the entire Atlanta offense. A good running game led by Michael Turner will be Matt Ryan's best friend. Not getting sacked 60 times would also be good for the young QB. That all starts up front with an offensive line that gave up 47 sacks in 2007. The Falcons only made a couple of additions to the OL, but one of them was a big one. They moved back into the first round to select LT Sam Baker with the 21st pick. Baker spent his final season at USC protecting John David Booty, and now is penciled in as the starter for the Falcons. Justin Blalock moves back to LG, with veteran Todd McClure at C, Kynan Forney at RG, and Todd Weiner at RT. This group was average at run blocking last year, and below average in pass blocking. Baker is a solid LT, but can not be considered a franchise LT like Joe Thomas. Ryan is not a scrambling QB, and when he does scramble he runs too upright which opens him up to big hits and creates fumble problems (8 in 2007). He is a pocket passer for a reason. Give him a pocket and he'll perform, force him to throw on the run and accuracy/interception problems become rampant.

How will he use his weapons in Atlanta?
Matt Ryan didn't have playmakers like Roddy White, Michael Turner, or Jerious Norwood at Boston College. Ryan's favorite targets in 2007 were a couple of smurf WRs (Rich Gunnell, Brandon Robinson) and a pass catching RB (Andre Callender). The scouting report on Ryan is that he is a fantastic QB when throwing short and intermediate routes. However, when asked to throw the ball deep his passes tend to sail. His arm isn't overly strong, so he tries to overcome that with an exaggerated throwing motion. This means throwing off his back foot which translates into batted passes because of improper trajectory. Out of 654 pass attempts in 2007, 46 of Matt's passes were batted away. All of the miscues were on deep throws. What does that mean for his pro career? It may not actually be a bad thing to throw underneath and let your playmakers do the damage with their run after the catch ability. Roddy White should continue to be both a dangerous weapon and Ryan's most targeted receiver. Michael Turner has never been much of a receiver out of the backfield, even dating back to his days at Northern Illinois. This means Jerious Norwood, who showed decent hands in 2007, should be more involved in the passing game. Matt doesn't look to his TE often, but Alge Crumpler is gone and the days of Vick to Crumpler are long gone too.

How long will his learning curve be?
Life is tough for a rookie QB. But Ryan is a very intelligent QB that will be able to digest a complicated playbook. He showed great patience at Boston College, and creativity when going through his progressions. He is able to look off defenders, and doesn't let his eyes give away where the ball is going. What can interrupt that patience? Pressure makes Ryan look more flustered than John Clayton reporting from inside the Cowboys cheerleader's locker room. When under fire Ryan will lock onto his primary target too long hoping for that big play. This often leads to poor decisions with the football. He will throw into coverage when the rush gets to him, and his mechanics/accuracy suffers when he throws on the run. Matt's learning curve will be large if the Falcons line can't protect him. An injury will make that curve even longer. There's an old saying, "If you can't stand the heat, get out of the kitchen." We shall see if Ryan can stand up to the heat, and perform under pressure.

Will his HUGE contract make him a mark for opposing defenses?
The short answer is yes and no. Many veterans were upset by the big contract signed by a player that has never seen live action in the NFL. Ryan knows about the grumblings, but feels that players are upset at the system more than they are upset at him. That being said, NFL defenders just love to sack the QB. There are some dirty players in the NFL, but I don't believe that there will be any player looking to hurt Ryan because of his deal. Defensive players are more than happy to make the play, and if they can put a little something extra for the QB, then so be it. Ryan's contract doesn't make him a target, the fact that he is a QB makes him a target.

Positives

• Prototypical size for a NFL QB
• Reads his progressions well and shows patience in the pocket
• Not Houdini, but strong enough and athletic enough to elude the rush

Negatives

• Long passes tend to flutter and sail
• Will force too many throws into tight coverage
• Has problems with fumbles when sacked/forced from the pocket

Final Thoughts

It's very possible that Matt Ryan won't even get selected in some redraft leagues. That said, Matt Ryan has a very good chance of being the starter from Week 1. If he starts to show promise early in the season he could be a waiver wire pickup in case of emergency. Expectations should be low, as they are for most rookie QBs but that doesn't mean Ryan won't put up some good numbers here and there. Dynasty players should be excited about his future. He has the physical tools and mental capacity to be a very solid system QB in this league. However, his numbers in 2008 will not blow anyone out of the water. He will start early, struggle often, and frustrate any fantasy owner that drafts him. His 2008 season should be full of handing off to Michael Turner, dumping off passes to Jerious Norwood, and getting passes into the hands of Roddy White.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

renesauz:
I'm having a hard time understanding why there is a spotlight for him. He may be the top rookie QB, but it's impossible right now to even say with any certainty that he's the starter. How could anyone predict with even a tiny degree of confidence. Even if he started, and played as well as any rookie ever has on a team this bad, he still wouldn't come close to QB1 fantasy numbers. Only in a start 2 league is he even worth considering...as a possible third QB.

rzrback77:
Unless you play in two QB leagues or dynasty, say far away from the Atlanta QB in 2008. I have no idea if Matt Ryan will be effective enough in pre-season work that the Falcons will make the decision to go with him from the get-go or not, especially in June. However, for the purpose of the spotlight, I will assume that he shows enough promise that they will determine to use him as the starter in the first game and he will stick.

Atlanta is not likely to be very good in 08. They are definitely the weak sister in the NFC South. Typically having the worse team usually leads to more passing because they are well behind in many games, so despite the fact that they have two solid RBs and not many receivers, their passing stats may be more than expected.

Last year, they had a cumulative 336 completions in 555 attempts and I see similar numbers again this year. The yardage per attempt was low at 6.44 and should remain that low or below. They lost their TE and their WRs are fairly young and will be learning a new offensive system and likely a new QB. Rookie QBs on poor teams are not good combos. Again the projection is for Ryan to get all the starts, which is not likely.

Iwannabeacowboybaby!:
Matt Ryan is off in the right direction, he's signed a contract and isn't going to miss valuable practice time in his rookie year. So many high profile players miss quality time and never really gain form their rookie seasons. Matt Ryan at some point this season will be asked to lead this football team on the field and in knowing that, he's given himself his best shot at being prepared. That is a sign of intelligence and proper work ethic.

I think Atlanta has helped themselves offensively this past off season. They've went out and brought in a running back that looks like he can handle a large load and they've improved what was a very poor offensive line last season. Roddy White stepped his game up big time last year and when Ryan finally gets the call to be the man, he and White will become familiar with each other real fast.

Tatum Bell:
Pretty solid divisional opponents, relatively tough schedule IMHO, and a new RB and coach, and loss of the team's best offensive player (Crumpler) don't bode well.

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