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Spotlight - QB JaMarcus Russell, Oakland Raiders

Posted on 7/1, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Colin Dowling's Thoughts

Expectations for JaMarcus Russell -- both for his career and for the 2008 season -- appear somewhat muted. That's surprising considering that from a pure passing standpoint he was the best quarterback prospect to enter the league since Carson Palmer. Say what you will about the fact that he reportedly almost lost his job at LSU, the fact remains that Russell has indisputable arm strength and has had the better part of a year to stand on the sidelines and learn.

On the flip side, the Raider offense has been mediocre (at best) for a few seasons and while the addition of Darren McFadden should help the offense significantly, the receiving corps can hardly be trusted, especially when de facto number one receiver Javon Walker is dealing with some injuries and off-field lapses in judgment. Furthermore, even though Lane Kiffin showed a lot of potential as a coordinator at USC, his one year as an NFL head coach hasn't produced much success.

That said, JaMarcus Russell will be the undisputed starter in Oakland this season. Barring injury or historically bad performance, he'll be under center as much as possible as he acclimated himself to the learning curve of the NFL. While other quarterbacks like Alex Smith and Rex Grossman find themselves in training camp battles for the starter's job, Russell has the benefit of a full camp running with the first team. Even though young quarterbacks rarely experience a great deal of success early on, it is impossible to overstate the significance of guaranteed playing time, which Russell will surely receive. A fantasy choice is only useful if he's on the field.

As a player, JaMarcus Russell has an exceptionally strong arm and can make all the throws necessary to be a successful NFL quarterback. He has some mobility but it would be a mistake to think that his rushing numbers are going to be significant. In four games last season, Russell completed just over 54% of his passes for 2 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. His yards per attempt were a mere 5.7 and he fumbled the ball 4 times. In essence, he performed on par with most young quarterbacks trying to adjust to the speed of the NFL. However, lost in many people's observations is the fact that Russell averaged 10.4 yards per completion, which is a reason for optimism. Such a statistic (albeit in a limited sample size) indicates that Russell threw the ball downfield a bit and didn't fall in to the quick-slant and screen-pass offense that plagues many young quarterbacks as they learn the game. Without question, Lane Kiffin and company will rely on Russell to get the ball down the field so he may well produce solid yardage and touchdown numbers even if he is prone to incompletions and turnovers.

Positives

• Unquestioned starter for the season in Oakland
• The additions of Darren McFadden and Javon Walker could lead to a more explosive offense in Oakland then in recent years
• Already demonstrated ability to pass the ball down the field

Negatives

• As a first time starter, expectations for fantasy production should be limited as it is highly unlikely that Russell will develop quickly enough to be considered fantasy starter material
• Fumbling problems will have to be curtailed quickly to guarantee Russell remains on the field
• Even quick development by Russell will likely continue to include interceptions and a relatively low completion percentage as Russell learns the nuances of an NFL offense

Final Thoughts

JaMarcus Russell is a fantastic prospect for the long term. He has the poise, skills, and arm to be a tremendous NFL quarterback and will no doubt be given every opportunity in Oakland to develop in to just that. However, expectations for production should be reasonable for this season. From a fantasy standpoint, the most appealing thing about JaMarcus Russell is that barring injury, he is virtually certain to be playing each week. We suggest selecting him late as a 3rd quarterback with upside if your roster size will allow it or as a 2nd quarterback to backup a top-tier starter (Manning, Brady, Romo). As the season wears on, it will be nice to have a player on your roster that is assured of playing in November and December.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

jurb26:
Well, this is really a roll of the dice projection. It's hard to know what kind of player we are going to see in Russell this year. I really like the weapons Oak has brought in to surround him with. Walker is going to bounce back IMO and McFadden will scare the daylights out of defenses no matter where he is lined up. The real question is with the Oline. I still see it as a bellow average group, but improving. Russell has mobility and maybe that will help. My biggest fear is that Russell wont really be able to take advantage of that cannon arm just yet.

Englishteacher:
I'm a dynasty Russell owner. Currently, he's the only QB on my roster (keep 6). I'm more or less resigned to the fact I won't get great numbers from him this year and that I'll have to draft another QB or two to start for me. What I'm looking for this year are "flashes" to see if this kid looks like he'll be a player. If I see enough of those I'll be happy and more inclined to wait on the numbers. Dwayne Bowe is another kid I kept that didn't have and maybe won't have (this year) great numbers. But, he has "IT". I'm just hoping Russell does too. He certainly has a lot of tools.

JKL:
I'm not going to add any great insight on JaMarcus Russell's arm, mobility, etc. I'll just rely on the scouts and the fact that he was selected #1 overall. There have been 15 previous quarterbacks selected first overall since the merger. They played varying amounts in their rookie seasons, with Russell's 66 pass attempts falling at the low end, between Vick (113) and Palmer (0). They were all the primary starter in year 2, as Russell clearly will be this year.

Only Carr (27th), Bartkowski (43rd) and Couch (35th) finished outside the top 24 in standard fantasy scoring at QB, and Bartkowski and Couch each missed 7+ games in year 2 with injury. Thus, 80% of them finished as a QB2 or better, and he is currently at QB23 in the expert redraft rankings, with only Norton having him inside the top 20. The average finish was QB18, 4 of 15 finished top 5 in year 2 (E. Manning, P. Manning, Vick, Bledsoe), and 2 more finished top 12 (Bradshaw and Elway).

At his current draft position, I think he is presenting value compared to several guys ahead of him. To me, he is an ideal QB2 if you arent going to grab one of the top 15 guys as your 2nd. Here's what we know based on history as well as the Raiders' QB moves this off-season:

1) he has significantly less downside compared to many of the 33+ somethings and young unproven guys on other teams, because he is the guaranteed starter all year barring a serious injury; and
2) based on history, I think he also presents a little more upside than those guys as well. He wouldn't be the first highly drafted QB to play at an above average level in his first non-rookie starting season.

He could finish anywhere from top 10 to outside the top 25, but given his upside and relative low risk of job loss, I have him at about QB18.

Jon_Moore:
He's a Vince Young pick. Taken because of Athletic Ability instead of the ability to read defenses and make the adjustments. And, that's fine, there have been plenty of quarterbacks to succeed in the NFL and in fantasy.

He's got plenty of offensive weapons, Fargas is coming off a 1,000 yard season rushing, they took McFadden #1 overall, Ronald Curry is above average as a #2, and they just brought in Javon Walker, who's been an excellent big play receiver when healthy.

They ranked 31/32 in passing last year, they only attempted 451 attempts as a team. With McFadden and Fargas in town, I get the impression they'll keep running alot, and passing a little.

He's also got a defense that should be considerably improved in 2008, with the additions of Gibril Wilson and Deangelo Hall.

Hopefully, the Rush defense improves enough to keep them in games, if it doesn't, more opportunities for passing, but int's as well.

He's got solid mobility for a big fella, which should help him sneak a few tds in as well.

JaMarcus Russell Projections