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Spotlight - TE Zach Miller, Oakland Raiders

Posted on 6/11, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jeff Haseley's Thoughts

The Oakland Raiders found a great offensive threat last year in rookie TE Zach Miller. This is encouraging considering Miller had 44 receptions for 444 yards and 3 TDs in the league's second worst passing offense in 2007. Miller finished as the 16th ranked TE last season and he had one of the lower yards per catch statistics (10.1 YPC) among the top 20 TEs. This suggests the Raiders have used him and will likely continue to use him as a short to mid range receiver. He was consistently present in the Raiders passing game last year catching at least one pass in 15 of 16 games, including an average of 3.3 catches over the last eight games of the season. Those figures aren't exactly top 10 numbers, but keep in mind, he was a rookie last year and his potential to be better is one of the growing topics among fantasy enthusiasts heading into the 2008 season.

One reason to think Miller will be more productive in 2008 is that he had great chemistry with QB JaMarcus Russell. In the two games last year (weeks 16 and 17) where Russell had an opportunity to flex his QB muscle as a starter for the first time, Miller appeared to be his favorite target. Russell looked Miller's way twice in his first four passes as a starter and his first TD pass as a pro went to Miller. If that trend continues into 2008 like some suggest, Zach Miller could greatly increase his reception totals upwards of 60-65 catches. While those numbers come from a small sample size of just two games with Russell, sometimes that's all it takes to notice a trend. Miller had 11 total receptions in the two games Russell started last year. That equates to 5.5 receptions per game or 88 receptions over a full 16 game season. Miller will be hard-pressed to reach those numbers, but 60-65 receptions would not be outside of the realm of possibility. If that's the case, even with just a few TDs, Miller could be a top 5 TE in 2008.

Lots of questions surround Zach Miller's expected production this year, but there is plenty of room for optimism. Miller could very well produce solid numbers and perform well above his draft position. He is a great option as your TE2, but drafting him to be your TE1 is still a risk, despite the lofty potential.

Positives

• Zach Miller established great chemistry with predicted starting QB JaMarcus Russell. Developing QBs tend to find chemistry with short to mid range receivers, because they often feel more confident making shorter, more proficient pass attempts than low percentage, long range passes. This heavily favors Miller.
• Miller's 44 receptions as a rookie on the 31st ranked passing offense in the league, suggests better numbers with more experience and an improved offensive passing ranking.
• No true competition from other TEs on the roster. The Raiders second best TE from a receiving standpoint last year was John Madsen, who finished the year with only 8 receptions for 102 yards. Oakland also doesn't have a true top 20 WR. Javon Walker is a big question mark due to his injury history. Other than Walker there is no real threat.

Negatives

• The biggest glaring negative is that Zach Miller has never ventured into the production territory that some suggest he'll be in for the 2008 season. In other words, his potential breakout is just that -- potential. For all we know, maybe Miller is only a top 20 TE and all of this speculation is all fluff based on two games with JaMarcus Russell starting.
• Don't forget the Raiders were the second worst passing offense in the league last year. Even if Zach Miller is the main receiving threat, how good can he be on a team with a new QB on a passing offense that has recently been slightly above poor at best?
• Sophomore slump? Often times a player who performs well in his rookie season, struggles to reach the same production in his second year. The last two rookie TEs with 40 receptions or more (Alex Smith and Eric Johnson) had fewer receptions the following year. Interestingly enough, both rebounded in their third season.

Final Thoughts

There are several reasons to believe Zach Miller will continue to rise in value among fantasy TEs in 2008. He is in a great spot to produce value. He's on an offense that can only get better and his competition at the TE position is virtually non-existent. There is arguably not a top 20 caliber WR on the team either, which bodes well for Miller and his chances of exceeding the lofty expectations that many have laid out for him. Having said all that, he has not proven anything yet, so his value remains as a TE2 and very questionable TE1. He's a great mid to late round pick as a TE2 with the potential to put up TE1 numbers. Drafting him as a primary TE is a big risk, but one that could produce a substantial reward.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

Jeff Tefertiller, FBG Staff:
I see a big improvement. The rookie season is a huge adjustment for the tight ends, probably more than any position. I definitely can see Miller crack the top ten at his position.

rzrback77:
Zach Miller is one of my favorite TE targets for drafts in 08. He had a successful rookie campaign on a team that had a miserable passing attack. He should continue the chemistry developed late last year with his young (same draft class) QB JaMarcus Russell. I look for the two of them to provide value from where they will be drafted based on their youth and also the fact that they are on the Raiders.

gianmarco:
My ONLY issue with Zach Miller is the following (with the disclaimer that this is based STRICTLY on #'s and game logs, not how he's looked):

His game log is VERY pedestrian with the exception of the last week when he had 8/84. Otherwise, he was catching 2-4 balls for 30-40 yds every week. He got bye week fill-in #'s on a consistent regular basis (which most bye week fill-in TE's don't do). Thus, his end of year #'s were decent but his weekly scoring simply wasn't very good.

Now, again, this is only by the #'s, I know he was a rookie, I know it improved with Russell, and I know he's talented. It's just a matter of whether or not the Raiders are ever going to use the TE's enough to make him worthy of a top 10 TE with good upside. Just gives a little reason to hesitate. I still like him and went after him, I'm just saying...

massraider:
I think the ideal situation for the Raiders is Walker establishing his form, a big question, McFadden having an impact in the passing game, and Miller moving the chains. But there's some things in Miller's favor:

1. Kiffin will want to control the clock. Short passes, with the occasional play action bomb to keep the D honest. But he will look short first, and Miller could easily become Russell's security blanket. One or two games at the end of the year is too small a sample size to say for sure, and there was no DMC and Javon on that team. But it is promising, at least. One little tidbit: At the recent OTA's, Kiffin had Russell throwing ZERO downfield passes. Everything was short and intermediate.

2..While Miller is young, he isn't raw. One of the positives noted in every scouting report I saw, was that he is comfortable in the passing game. And that bore itself out in games. He took the starting job right away, and just looks comfortable out there. Settles into the zones, doesn't fight the ball, etc. Frankly, they didn't look his way enough.

3. The wideouts are a question mark. Curry is coming off another surgery, Dre Carter did little in Carolina, and Javon......well, everyone knows the risk. I don't think too many people would be surprised if McFadden and Miller were the top two receivers for Oakland this year.

I would be a lot more hot for Miller in a PPR league, as I doubt the offense will be high-powered enough to allow him to score an inordinate amount of TDs. But I do think several circumstances could converge that could allow him to post some serious reception numbers.

Zach Miller Projections