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Spotlight - WR Brandon Marshall, Denver Broncos

Posted on 6/11, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jason Wood's Thoughts

Few things can make a fantasy football owner happier than drafting a young star in their breakthrough season. In that case, it's safe to say Brandon Marshall made his owners ecstatic last year.

• 1st in targets (170)
• 4th in 1st down catches (70)
• 4th in yards after the catch (505)
• 5th in receptions (102)
• 6th in receiving yards (1,325)
• 9th ranked fantasy WR

Physically Mature -- The young Denver Bronco displayed glimpses as a rookie in 2006, but few could've seen last season coming. Physically, there's a lot to like about Brandon Marshall. He's got the size (6'4", 229 pounds) to dominate defensive backs. Built like a tight end, Marshall gets off the line with ease, and has little difficulty gaining position against most defenders. Combine that with his 37" vertical leap and you can understand why Marshall is already one of the better "jump ball" receivers in the league. Although Marshall doesn't have blistering straight line speed (4.52 40-time), he's fluid and economical with his movement in and out of cuts.

Mentally Immature -- Although Marshall's physical maturity is unquestioned, his mental maturity could use some work. Marshall has been involved in a number of incidents over the last few years, including an arrest last March after a public argument with his girlfriend. He was then arrested in October of last year for a DUI and faces trial on that charge this June. Last, but certainly not least, Marshall was wrestling with his brother in March and somehow put his arm through a television set. He tore several muscles and tendons; and will be out of commission for at least four months. Has the light bulb finally gone on? In Marshall's own words, "Being truthful, it is time for me to grow up on and off the field. I'm not just a guy on the team; I'm a starter and have a lot of responsibility on this team. We have goals that we're trying to reach, and I play a role in that." It's good to see Marshall take responsibility for his mistakes, but talk is cheap. Until he keeps his nose clean for a significant period of time; fantasy owners shouldn't discount the risks involved.

Revamping the Receiving Corps -- Denver finished 13th in passing yards (3,584) and 16th in passing TDs (21) last season and a major reason for that was the lack of receiver depth. With Javon Walker hurt, Brandon Marshall was the only reliable receiver on the roster. Brandon Stokley finished 2nd with 40 receptions and Glenn Martinez was the only other WR to finish with more than 10 catches. As a result, Denver completely reworked its WR corps; adding four veterans (Darrell Jackson, Keary Colbert, Samie Parker and Edell Shepherd) and drafting Eddie Royal in the 2nd round. Regardless of which additions make the final roster, the 2008 receiving corps looks markedly better than the 2007 version. For Marshall, this means fewer targets but should also mean fewer double teams. What Marshall loses in receptions he should more than make up for in red zone scoring opportunities.

As Cutler goes, so goes Marshall -- A wide receiver is only as good as the guy throwing him the ball. The Broncos handed the franchise over to Jay Cutler last year; and he answered the call. Cutler's first full season as a starter showed strong growth and hints at Pro Bowl potential in the next year or two. He completed 63.6% of his passes throwing for 3,497 yards and 20 TDs; against only 14 interceptions. When you consider that Cutler lost 32 pounds during the season as he struggled with undiagnosed Diabetes, you have to believe he's capable of further improvement in 2008 now that his disease is under control. That can only bode well for Marshall as Cutler's favorite target.

Positives

• Marshall has a rare combination of size and speed
• He led the league in yards after the catch last season
• Improved WR depth will make it harder for defenses to key on him

Negatives

• Maturity issues persist; which led to a major arm injury in March
• The revamped WR corps means fewer targets
• Marshall lacks top-end speed; ranking 21st in 20+ yard receptions

Final Thoughts

Brandon Marshall has the physical aspects of being an NFL receiver down pat. Now he must prove to his coaches, teammates and the world at large he's got the mental maturity to maximize those rare physical gifts. It's unrealistic to expect Marshall to lead the league in targets again, but that doesn't mean he can't improve on last year's numbers. The receiving corps is much improved on paper; Jay Cutler is healthy and should show further improvement and the Broncos rushing attack should bounce back keeping defenses honest. Marshall could improve his catch percentage (60%) and his yards-per-catch (13.0); and should be capable of more than 7 touchdowns particularly if defenses can't key on him in the red zone as they did last year. The key to his season is the severity of the arm injury. If his arm is fine, Marshall should easily deliver top-15 numbers at a minimum. Draft accordingly.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

Jon_Moore:
If you followed the Broncos passing game last season, Jay Cutler really has a knack for finding the number one receiver. Javon Walker went over 100 yards in each of the 1st 2 games before being hurt in the 3rd. While Walker was out, Marshall went off all season long. Walker returns at less than 100%, Marshall acts as the #1, keeps getting all the targets. Cutler is going to be looking for and finding this kid ALOT. Marshall should be in for a great season with 16 games as the #1. If the 3rd year is the breakout year, Marshall is in for one heck of one if the injury doesn't hold him back.

Iwannabeacowboybaby!:
This is Denver's best offensive player. He's a standout athlete who must get the ball. Denver showed last season if they couldn't get it to him conventionally, they'd throw WR screens or even give him the ball on reverses. We know the negatives, he may be immature, there's a little uncertainty about the injury but I'm looking past those things and expect a very solid season from Brandon Marshall.

radballs:
Head case, injury, never really the lead guy, and not much of a track record with an extremely young but promising QB on a below average squad.

Banger:
He was the #9 WR last year in his 1st year as a starter (2nd year player) and his only "downfall" last year was that he only had 7 tds. The Bronco's were putrid in the redzone and while Marshall started off slowly in TD's (only 2 td's in his 1st 9 games) he came on at the end of the season and scored 5 td's over his last 7 games. The disparity may have been due to the fact that Walker may have gotten the redzone looks in the beginning of the season. He had tremendous consistency in his targets, receptions and yards throughout the year. Towards the end of the year they were essentially using him as a RB for a couple plays a game where they would throw him the ball at the line and let him make some plays. He closed the year with 13, 16, 13 and 13 targets (and averaged 10.625/game). They cut his biggest competition and other than the injury and maybe some attitude problems I'm not sure what there is not to love about this 3rd year wr.

a_troll00:
Will Brandon Marshall ever fully recover from his off-season injury? A few weeks back I heard on the Denver sports radio station, 104.3 the fan, on the Irv, Joe, and Jim show that Brandon can't move the fingers on his injured arm. Is this from tendon damage, or nerve damage? Will he ever fully regain the use of that hand? It's still way too early to make any assessments for this upcoming season.

Brandon Marshall Projections