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Spotlight - QB Eli Manning, New York Giants

Posted on 6/9, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jason Wood's Thoughts

Eli Manning quieted his critics last year with a masterful postseason run that culminated in the Giants improbable Super Bowl victory over the 18-0 New England Patriots. In four postseason games, Manning completed 72 of 119 passes (60.5% completion) for 857 yards and 6 touchdowns versus 1 interception. His last touchdown to Plaxico Burress in the left corner of the end zone cemented the Giants first championship since 1991 and, more importantly, justified Manning's status as the 1st overall pick in the 2004 draft.

Unfortunately, fantasy football championships are won and lost during the REGULAR season; and Eli Manning has, to date, been a decidedly mediocre quarterback from September to December. Take a look at where Eli ranks among active NFL quarterbacks:

• 27th in passer rating (73.4)
• 30th in yards per attempt (6.3)
• 31st in completion percentage (54.7%)
• 26th in interception percentage (3.5%)
• 16th in TD percentage (4.3%)

These are not the kind of numbers that scream 1st overall pick or Super Bowl champion. Yet, Manning stands tall with a ring while Pro Bowlers like Donovan McNabb, Carson Palmer and Drew Brees continue to chase a ring.

It would be one thing if Manning showed improvement each season, which would perhaps argue that his career ranks are no longer indicative of his place among NFL quarterbacks. Yet, his 2007 numbers suggest otherwise:

• 56.1% completion rate (28th among qualified passers)
• 6.3 yards per attempt (28th)
• 4.3% touchdown rate (13th)
• 3.8% interception rate (23rd)

Despite concerns, Eli Manning is NOT without positive attributes:

1. Manning throws touchdowns -- Eli has thrown for at least 23 touchdowns in each of his full seasons. Over the last three years, his 71 touchdowns ranks 5th among NFL quarterbacks.
2. Manning throws the ball, a lot -- When you think of pass happy teams, the Giants probably wouldn't be the first that comes to mind. Yet, in the last three years Eli Manning's 1608 pass attempts ranks 4th among NFL quarterbacks.
3. An effective offensive line returns intact -- A season ago, there were major questions about the Giants offensive line. But the decision to move David Diehl to tackle paid off and the line protected Manning (27 sacks) most of the time. With a year together as a unit; further improvement is likely.
4. Deepest WR corps of his career -- Plaxico Burress is a top-10 receiver and Amani Toomer continues to turn back Father Time. Steve Smith will be a major contributor this year; he was the team's best looking receiver in camp last year before getting hurt. Rookie Mario Manningham has 1st round talent.
5. Potential for further growth -- Although he regressed somewhat in 2007, he's too young to think we've seen his peak years. Manning probably will never be a 65% passer, but 60% is hardly out of question.

The Jeremy Shockey Factor. Rumors persist that Jeremy Shockey is going to be traded to the New Orleans Saints. Is it possible that trading away a 4-time Pro Bowler can be a positive development? The argument for moving Shockey is that New York won a Super Bowl without him and, in his absence, Eli Manning was more productive. The drama that surrounds Shockey is distracting and divisive; and GM Jerry Reese and HC Tom Coughlin have the goodwill to shed themselves of the headache. The argument against trading Shockey is that he's not easily replaced. In spite of his personality quirks, Shockey has been a MAJOR portion of Eli Manning's success. Over the last three seasons, Shockey has accounted for:

• 20.2% of the team's receptions (188)
• 20.6% of the team's receiving yards (2,133)
• 23.9% of the team's receiving TDs (17)

No disrespect to Kevin Boss, but he's not going to replicate that kind of productivity. The Giants are going to have to reshape their offense if the Shockey trade happens; and that's unlikely to lead to better passing numbers over a full 16-game season.

Positives

• Manning ranks 4th and 5th in pass attempts and passing TDs, respectively over his three full seasons
• The offensive line returns intact
• The receiving corps is the best of his career

Negatives

• Manning is among the least accurate starters in the league
• Manning has the 2nd most interceptions(55) in the league over the last three seasons
• The potential loss of Jeremy Shockey looms large

Final Thoughts

Eli Manning proved to even his most ardent critics that he's a quality NFL starter and someone who can make the biggest of plays on the biggest of stages. Yet, fantasy football leagues are won and lost during the REGULAR season and, as a result, Manning looks slightly overvalued this year. Unless your league ignores turnovers, Manning's high INT rate and low completion percentage make it hard to project a breakthrough season. On the other hand, he attempts enough passes and throws enough touchdowns that his floor should be no worse than a top tier fantasy QB2. If his ADP holds steady, someone is going to draft Manning as their starter. Don't be that person; but readily consider him as your backup in the middle rounds if he falls a bit. Draft accordingly.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

Fonz31:
I think this is the year we see Eli develop into a top 10 fantasy QB. Peyton took a few years to become the fantasy stud that he is, and Eli now has a Super Bowl ring at a much earlier age. The Giants offense now has multiple player makers at every position (Burress, Toomer, Steve Smith, Shockey, Boss, Jacobs, Bradshaw and possibly Manningham as well).

Coeur de Lion:
People are going to draft him much higher than he should go based on remembering the Super Bowl run. I agree that he is a strong fantasy QB2, but will expect him to go higher than I'd feel comfortable taking him. He seems to have settled in, stats-wise.

Iwannabeacowboybaby!:
Eli showed us that he has the composure to play at a high level under the pressure. However, if you look at his fantasy rankings the past 3 years during the regular season, he's actually regressed in terms of his overall QB ranking. I think Eli found himself last year and think he's comfortable in knowing what he can do. He isn't his brother.....and that's OK, he won a Super Bowl. He doesn't have to pass for 4,000 yards and he doesn't have to pass for 40 Td's.

Chase Stuart, FBG Staff:
Eli isn't a top 5 NFL or FF QB. He's on the border of being a top 10 QB, but in terms of how he's actually played, I don't think he's ever been really a top 10 fantasy QB. As I wrote earlier, if you adjust his performance for games played and SOS, he ranked 11th in '05, 24th in '06 and 15th or 16th last year. This, by the way, also refutes the incorrect argument that Eli has gotten worse as a fantasy player every year. He simply had an easy schedule in '06, a neutral schedule in '07, and lots of good QBs were injured in '06 inflating Eli's raw ranking. He improved, at least a little and judging by rankings, from '06 to '07.

Eli Manning Projections