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Spotlight - WR Bryant Johnson, San Francisco 49ers

Posted on 6/16, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jason Wood's Thoughts

Let's be clear about something, there are no guarantees with Bryant Johnson this season. Johnson, tired of being the third wheel in Arizona, envisioned landing a massive payday as one of the better free agent options at his position. Despite flirting with Buffalo for a few months, he apparently turned down their multi-year offer in the hopes of landing a bigger one. Shortly thereafter he settled for a one-year, incentive laden contract in San Francisco.

Johnson's critics are left to wonder why he would sign a one-year deal on a team that finished last season last (32nd) in both points and yards. Not only is he joining the worst offensive team in the NFL, but he's not without competition for touches. In fact, four of San Francisco's players have had more receptions in a season than Johnson:

• Bryant Johnson -- 49 receptions (2004)
• Frank Gore -- 61 receptions (2006)
• Arnaz Battle -- 59 receptions (2006)
• Vernon Davis -- 52 receptions (2007)
• Isaac Bruce -- 119 receptions (1995)

It's all about Mike Martz
The San Francisco 49ers needed to make a change on offense and did so by bringing in "Mad" Mike Martz. Regardless of whether you think Martz is ideally suited to help an NFL team win real games, no fantasy owner can question his impact on the passing attack.

• 2007 -- 587 attempts (4th in NFL)
• 2006 -- 596 attempts (2nd)
• 2005 -- 599 attempts (4th)
• 2004 -- 580 attempts (5th)
• 2003 -- 600 attempts (2nd)
• 2002 -- 635 attempts (1st)
• 2001 -- 551 attempts (12th)
• 2000 -- 587 attempts (3rd)
• 1999 -- 530 attempts (19th)
• AVERAGE -- 585 attempts

It simply hasn't mattered. Martz' offenses throw the ball a TON regardless of whether the team is a contender or not. Whether the team has a good defense or not. Whether the team has a great RB or not. And it hasn't mattered who the QB is, either.

But who WILL be the QB?
Don't laugh, but I genuinely don't think it matters as it relates to the WR corps. As we showed above, Mike Martz is going to find SOMEONE to throw the ball. Sure, right now it's hard to imagine San Francisco lighting the world on fire. Alex Smith has struggled to stay healthy and, when he's been healthy his numbers haven't been compelling. J.T. O'Sullivan is a journeyman who has been lucky to make rosters as the QB3. And Shaun Hill, while impressive in limited action last year, doesn't have a pedigree which hints at greatness.

But wait a second...has ANY Martz QB had a great pedigree before he got a hold of them? Sure, Kurt Warner won two NFL MVPs but before he played for Dick Vermeil and Mike Martz, he was a grocery boy and Arena footballer. Marc Bulger was considered a long shot with a mediocre arm before becoming a perennial 4,000-yard passer under Martz. Jon Kitna had never enjoyed the success we saw out of him in Detroit the last two years. At the end of the day, Martz is going to figure out how to get the ball down field.

OK, but you said it yourself...Bryant Johnson is possibly the 5th best option on the team
I can't argue with that. As I showed you before, Johnson is not without competition. Isaac Bruce may be 35 years old but he's a Hall of Famer and enjoyed some of his best seasons under Martz in St. Louis. It would be silly to think Bruce won't be the odds on favorite to be WR1 or at least WR1a this year. Frank Gore is clearly the 49ers best offensive weapon and is an excellent pass catcher. He will certainly be used liberally as a receiver, and could be the most targeted player on the team (think to what Marshall Faulk and Steven Jackson did under Martz).

Johnson's opportunity really comes down to two issues:

• Will TE Vernon Davis be a focal point of the offense? -- Davis is arguably the most athletic player to ever play the TE position; but has had an uneven start to his career. It's hard to believe he caught 52 passes last year but, in fact, he did. Where things get interesting is that Martz has never made use of his tight ends. Granted, he hasn't ever had a TE as good as Davis, but will Martz' spread formations allow Davis to outperform? Let's not forget that a LOT of 3rd tier wideouts have had monster numbers under Martz; while nary a TE has done so.

• Is Johnson a better fit for Martz' offense than Arnaz Battle? -- Arnaz Battle isn't a top-tier NFL receiver. But one has to admit that his numbers over the last two seasons (109 receptions, 1286 yards, 8 TDs) far surpass any two-year stretch Johnson enjoyed.

So why are you Spotlighting Johnson again?
The truth is, sometimes you have to trust your instincts. I've always felt that Bryant Johnson was capable of being a #1 receiver and now he's got his chance. Make no mistake, there will be a WIDE OPEN battle in training camp for playing time. Johnson isn't going to sit idly by; this is his chance to earn big $$$. If he delivers on the talent that made him a 1st round pick by the Cardinals years ago, he will land a big dollar, multi-year deal from some team (San Francisco or elsewhere).

Positives

• Mike Martz' teams ALWAYS throw the ball
• Johnson is motivated playing for a one-year deal after having to sit behind Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin for years in Arizona
• Johnson's ADP makes him a completely low risk, high upside prospect

Negatives

• The 49ers have as many as four other viable options in the receiving game (Gore, Davis, Bruce, Battle)
• While Martz has been known to work miracles, the 49ers ranked dead last offensively in 2007 and the QB situation looks questionable, at best
• Johnson has never had a 50-catch season, or scored more than 4 TDs

Final Thoughts

Bryant Johnson is a completely wild card this year. In my estimation, he's got the size, speed and skill set to be a true #1 receiver in the right offense; and few could argue that Mike Martz' pass happy attack would equal the "right offense." That said, he could just as easily find himself relegated to the WR3 and be the 5th man in the passing tree. Neither would surprise me. So how should fantasy owners proceed? Simply put, pay attention in training camp. If Johnson looks good, gets praised by Martz and is clearly named a starter; you need to make him a priority on draft day. You will be able to land him in the later rounds and that makes him low risk, high reward. On the other hand, if it's clear that Bruce and Battle are outplaying Johnson in camp, leave Johnson for the waiver wire. I'm betting on the former, but I won't argue if you bet on the latter.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

The Man with the Plan:
Sorry I don't see what's so special about Bryant Johnson. Frank Gore, Isaac Bruce, Arnaz Battle, Vernon Davis will be better receiving options than Bryant Johnson. But hey since Johnson's "playing for money" (like everyone else in the NFL by the way) so he should be a good fantasy player this year. Yeah right.

Assuming that this Martz offense even takes in San Francisco (which I really doubt), I still don't see Johnson as much of a fantasy option this season. He's never even had 50 catches in a season. All four of the guys I mentioned had 50 catches just last season.

MAC_32:
He's going to be given the opportunity to get the #1 role, but I just don't think he's good enough to do it. I think he's more of a complimentary WR. If he falls far enough I'd consider him and I'm holding tight in my dyno, but I'm just not expecting much. Bye week/injury filler at best.

LBH:
I'm not sure what to make of Bryant Johnson or the 49er offense this year. I think Gore will be good. I have no idea who will emerge as the best wr in the passing game. I don't like that Bryant Johnson never seemed to have any big games when he has started in place of an injured Fitz and Boldin over the last few years, but at the same time he seems to be the wr with the best upside thats locked into a starting position in SF right now. The other starting wrs are interesting too. Issac Bruce has a long history of playing in a Martz offense. Based on how Furrey and Mcdonald did in Detroit, Im not even sure Battle isn't the best option. The nice thing is that Johnson, Bruce, and Battle are all players that can be had late in drafts.

Coeur de Lion:
As far as Bryant Johnson vs. Arnaz Battle vs. Isaac Bruce, I like Johnson and Bruce to end up as WR1/2 when all is said and done, and think that both will likely offer nice value this year. How anyone can blame Johnson for not beating out Fitz and Boldin is beyond me. He was a former 1st round pick and played well as the Cards' WR3, with 40+ catches four years running.

Iwannabeacowboybaby!:
Bryant Johnson was a young prospect and most expected this guy to break out in Arizona the last few years. He gets a change of scenery but to me, not for the better. The competition at WR won't be as great as it was in Arizona, but the passing game isn't at the same level either. This could be Bryant Johnson's last chance to make something of himself in this league, but he'll have to prove it to me.

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