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Spotlight - WR Andre Johnson, Houston Texans

Posted on 7/7, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jeff Haseley's Thoughts

There is a great debate surrounding the expected production of Andre Johnson in 2008. Making the right decision to draft or pass on Andre Johnson this year is one of the widely talked about discussions among fantasy die-hards as the 2008 season approaches. If you're on the fence with your stand on Andre Johnson for 2008, or if you happen to love a great debate, DO NOT allow yourself to miss out on the Andre Johnson 2008 spotlight discussion thread. Some of the best fantasy minds in the game ponder the expected outcome for Johnson this year. Definitely a must read.

In order to fully understand the scope of both sides of the Andre Johnson debate, lets further examine what each side understands, believes and interprets. Once that is fully understood you can then make your own assessments, which will ultimately lead to knowing when to draft and when to pass on Andre Johnson in your league's draft.

Why is there reason to think Johnson's amazing talent won't catapult him to a new career high numbers in 2008? The answer and there is only one answer - his health. His troublesome knee first became an issue last year in a week two game against Carolina. The injury forced him out of action until he returned in week 11 for good. What exactly happened to his left knee on that fateful day in Carolina? Doctors say it was a sprain, but a sprain can be anything from a small twist to severely stretched ligaments. How severe was it? It was bad enough to miss eight games and troublesome enough to cause him to have arthroscopic surgery this Spring to clean it out..

How is his knee now?

From the Texans All-Access event just a few weeks following surgery Johnson proclaimed himself ready for 2008 - " If you are worried about my knee, my knee is doing fine," Johnson said. "But we are really excited about this season and hopefully we have a lot of great things to come."

What reasons lead us to think Johnson is capable of being a top 5 WR?

Andre Johnson is a tremendous talent. When he is healthy there may not be another WR that exceeds his talent and production on the field. His per game numbers are off the charts and only recently has he benefited from average to above average QB play. This leads to the first bulleted point of reason to think his potential is just now being tapped.

• With the inept David Carr now out of the way in Houston, the Texans passing game has increased dramatically, especially in the TD pass department. Before Matt Schaub and Sage Rosenfels started at QB for the Texans in 2007, Houston's highest number of passing TDs as a team in a season was 16 in 2004. The 2007 Texans totaled 24 TD passes - Eight more than the previous team record.

Johnson's percentage of the team's TD passes each year

• 2007, 24 TD passes, 8 Johnson TDs = 33.3%
• 2006, 14 TD passes, 8 Johnson TDs = 35.7%
• 2005, 15 TD passes, 2 Johnson TDs = 13.3% (played in only 13 games)
• 2004, 16 TD passes, 4 Johnson TDs = 25%
• 2003, 14 TD passes, 4 Johnson TDs = 28.5%

Here's the amazing part - This is where we really need to pay attention. Excluding 2007, he has averaged 25.6% of the team's TD passes in his career. When you factor in 2007 - the first year the Texans had another QB other than David Carr, Houston managed to pass for 24 TDs or 10 more than their average with Carr. Johnson in only nine games had 8 TDs last year. Had he played the entire season, his totals would've been through the roof - approximately 14 TDs. It appears as if Johnson has stepped up his game in the last few years, plus with another QB other than Carr, his TDs have increased.

The one aspect of Johnson's game that failed to make him one of the league's elite WRs was his lack of scoring double-digit TDs . Now that the Texans have eradicated David Carr and his offensive woes, Johnson is starting to show he is more than capable of scoring if he has any semblance of a respectable QB on the team.

Johnson's per game numbers in the nine games he played in 2007 were off the charts. When healthy with a middle of the road QB at worst, Johnson finished at the top or close to it in several categories in 2007 on a per game basis.

• 78% chance of scoring a TD in a game (2nd only to Randy Moss 81%)
• 89% chance of having six receptions or more in a game (#1 in the league)
• 67% chance of gaining 75+ yards receiving in a game (2nd only to Larry Fitzgerald)
• 44% chance of scoring 15 fantasy points or more in a game - non PPR (2nd only to Randy Moss)

Positives

• Johnson is clearly the number one option in the Texans passing game and with the departure of David Carr, the team has finally made huge strides. The TD passes are up and Johnson stands to benefit
• How good is good? Johnson's per game numbers last year rivaled the top WRs in the league, including the record-breaking career year that Randy Moss had. If 2007 is any indication for 2008, Johnson could very well reach top 5 and even top 3 WR status
• Johnson is currently the 6th WR being selected in 12-team redraft leagues. If he does finish in the top 5 or top 3, he'll be a slight bargain as a late 2nd round pick

Negatives

• The obvious and glaring negative is the unknown status of his left knee. Offseason surgery performed in May cleaned up any feelings of discomfort in the knee and Johnson has declared himself ready for training camp. However, we do not know for sure if the relatively minor arthroscopic surgery solved the problem or just temporarily fixed it. There is some degree of uncertainty and if it forces Johnson to miss any time in 2008, his numbers will take a dip
• The Texans obliterated their record of 16 TD passes in a season with 24 TD passes last year. Matt Schaub is the proclaimed 2008 starting QB by HC Gary Kubiak, however Schaub had only 9 of the 24 TD passes in 2007. Back up QB Sage Rosenfels had the other 15 TD passes in fewer attempts than Schaub. It can be said that Rosenfels often entered the game trailing and thus the opponents could spare a TD or two and still win the game. In fact, 11 of Rosenfels 15 TD passes came in the fourth quarter last year. In other words, Rosenfels had a lot of "garbage time" that inflated his stats
• With the question marks surrounding Johnson's health, is he really worth taking as a WR1 and likely your 2nd player picked overall? Even if he was completely and fully healthy, he hasn't shown enough in a full season to warrant a late 2nd round pick. His draft position of the 22nd player selected - end of 2nd round is based on him being completely healthy and even if he is, it's still a slight gamble

Final Thoughts

It's no secret, Andre Johnson is one of the NFL's elite talents at the WR position. His play last year when healthy was nothing less than amazing and his per game numbers rivaled even the great career year from Randy Moss. In only nine games, Johnson finished as the 22nd ranked WR. The big concern is his ailing left knee that forced him to miss seven games. The fact that he needed to have his knee scoped this spring could only be a precaution or it could mean that maybe everything associated with the knee isn't fully right. In any event, his current draft position looks to be based on him being completely healthy. People are drafting him based on one half a year's worth of astounding production. He has never had a full season with those numbers and with his knee concerns it makes drafting him in the second round a slight gamble in the absolute least. It's a glass is half full vs. half empty approach to the minds of fantasy enthusiasts regarding Johnson this year. If he's super productive once again, the decision to draft him makes all the sense in the world. If he's not, then it was an obvious good decision to pass on him. Ultimately the decision comes down to slight risk to gain a substantial reward vs. choosing wisely with a player of higher percentage of success, i.e someone like Chad Johnson, that could be drafted 8-12 picks later. Are you more of a risk taker? If so, Johnson is an excellent choice as a WR1 and he's even more valuable if he slips into the third round.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

Jason Wood, Senior Writer:
Anyone that looks at our site's projections or rankings knows that I'm by far the low man on the totem pole with AJ right now. It has nothing to do with my interpretation of his abilities and everything to do with his health.

Johnson had his knee scoped in the middle of May; and while he maintains he'll be out there for most of training camp, I'll believe it when I see it. Another issue we need to be concerned about is the manner in which he plays when nicked up. His play has suffered considerably while he's been hurt; which is seemingly all too often.

The guy has never finished better than WR18 and yet is universally lauded as a top 10 lock. Honestly, he's finished:

23rd as a rookie
22nd in 2004
47th in 2005
18th in 2006
22nd in 2007

And yet I'm seeing projections and ranking that make him out to be one of the few mortal locks for monster production. The way I see it, we can't argue both sides of the fence. If you're going to argue that he's not really "injury prone" and point to the fact he played 16 games in three of five seasons, you can't then discount his fantasy year-end rankings as being a byproduct of being nicked up on a bad team. Can't have your cake and eat it, too.

Five years into his career, Johnson is what he is...a physical marvel who when push comes to shove delivers top 20-25 numbers; making him HIGHLY overrated with or without his knee injury.

Burning Sensation:
Finishing in the top 25 with David Carr as your QB is like finishing in the top 5. The guy was well on his way to a top five finish last year in his first season without Carr before getting hurt. I can understand your dislike if you think his knee injury is more serious than Johnson or the Texans are saying, but if he is 100% by the start of the season, he is a lock for the top 5.

SSOG:
For much of the year, Johnson was averaging more points per game than the guy having the greatest fantasy season any WR has ever had ever. He led the league in yards per game, only fell below 70 yards receiving ONCE, and scored at least one TD in 7 of his 9 games. Arguing that he was anything other than one of the top 5 WRs in the league last year is just silly... which means you either expect him to get injured, or you expect him to regress. I'm fine with discounting him for either reason, but discounting him because his highest end-of-year ranking so far was 18th? Flimsy, imo.

Look at the reasons WHY his EoY rankings were so low. Early on, it's because he wasn't a great fantasy WR (or because his QB was holding him back- take your pick). Last year, it was ONLY because he was hurt. If you expect his string of low rankings to continue, you must expect one or the other to be the case. Personally, I'm of the opinion that once a player as talented as Andre finally gets into a good situation and breaks out, he doesn't UNBREAK out... so the only thing that can hold him back from a monster year would be injury.

Tanner9919:
Eventually, the word 'potential' is just another way of saying 'never having done it'.AJ is loaded with 'potential', but hasn't delivered the goods relative to his NFL draft position ( high first round pick)...

By comparison, Derrick Mason has averaged BETTER stats than AJ over the past 5 seasons:

Mason: 89/1076/5
AJ: 74/960/5

When talking in terms of ADP, there's not even a comparison between the two, Mason wins hands down! In 11 years, Mason has missed just 5 games..and the case can be made that Carr threw to AJ, but Mason , over the past 5 seasons, has had to catch passes from Boller, Anthony Wright, 55-yr old Steve McNair ( Balt.). So both both have caught passes from lousy QB's..

The fact of the matter is that AJ is an oft-injured player..Robert Smith was loaded with talent, and could never stay healthy.People avoided the guy on fantasy sites because he was deemed 'too fragile'.so why are we singing AJ's praises, another guy who is loaded with 'potential' but has yet to deliver? I don't want to hear about 'he coulda, he shoulda he woulda', or `if he didn't get hurt`..we shouldn't talk in terms of 'he was on pace to be the best WR in NFL history last season' and so on, the reality is the guy didn't deliver, he didn't set records, he isn't the next Jerry Rice..5 years into a pro career , and some people are still drinking the AJ kool-aid, the same people who would bury Robert Smith in a heartbeat for being too fragile.

the numbers don't lie, Derrick Mason represents much greater value than AJ...Mason outperforms AJ across the board over the past 5 seasons, and, he's never hurt.

I love all of these 'if' AJ doesn't get hurt, he's a top 5 WR' posts.

...and, if a frog had wings he wouldn't bump his ### a-hoppin, now would he?' -Raising Arizona

TheDirtyWord:
Andre Johnson seems to be a ploarizing figure heading into 2008. His abbreviated campaign of 2007 has given a glimpse of what he can actually be over a 16 game season, but his performance from 2003-2006, where his production didn't match his hype still lingers. As someone pointed out earlier, Johnson has never ranked better tha WR18 over a full season. So I'd like to make three points:

* In 2005 & 2006, Houston Texans QB's completed 599 passes for a 9.5 YPC average. Not YPA...YPC!
* The #2 WR's for the Texans during those 2 seasons were Jabar Gaffney and Eric Moulds; during their two seasons they combined for 112 catches for a 9.4 YPR.
* Prior to last season, Andre Johnson had missed 3 games in his 4 year career.

What this shows me is that the Texans passing game at the time was rancid throughout and that Johnson alone simply wasn't enough to correct it. During his one season of quasi breakout in 2004, once teams started to fixate on Johnson as Carr's favorite target, Carr didn't have the ability to use that to his advantage and make his other receivers dangerous. When you look at Johnson's 2006, it's a real testament to him that he was able to put up the numbers he did.

But 2007 was the first year the Texans received solid QB play, whether it be from Schaub or Rosenfels. Also, this was Gary Kubiak's second season with the Texans so his passing game and overall offensive concepts started to take shape and what that re-introduced to the Texans offense was Johnson's big play ability.

I mentioned Johnson's quasi-breakout in 2004. What I'm referring to is those first 6 games when Johnson went for: 33 receptions, 591 yards 17.9 YPA 4 TD's. Remember that during that brief period, it looked like Carr was putting it together, but then defenses adjusted, turned Johnson into a guy that over the next 2.5 years of his career averaged 11.3 YPR and Carr, unable to make his own adjustments became a cautionary tale.

What's my overall point: There is a very clear evidence that shows external factors beyond Johnson's control as having significant impact on his production.

The only thing that held Johnson back in 2007 was a knee injury, but upon his return his level of production declined minimally. His big play ability was back as evidenced by his 14.2 YPR. With increased level of chemistry between himself and Matt Schaub, I see a big year for Johnson - one that will put him in the first round universally in 2009 drafts.

Andre Johnson Projections