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Spotlight - TE Tony Gonzalez, Kansas City Chiefs

Posted on 7/28, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jason Wood's Thoughts

Sometimes fantasy football owners can out think themselves. We spend so much time trying to unearth the sleepers, aka "the guys who never did it before" and yet are so quick to dismiss the players who not only have done it before, but have done it for years and years and years.

Tony Gonzalez is one of those players. It seems that every year a good chunk of the fantasy populace dismisses him from fantasy consideration because they worry he can't replicate his historical numbers. And then, like clockwork, Gonzalez goes out and proves himself to be an all-time great and still capable of elite production. For those who forget just how good Gonzalez has been for how long, here are his year end fantasy rankings over his first 11 seasons:

• 1997 -- TE19
• 1998 -- TE10
• 1999 -- TE2
• 2000 -- TE1
• 2001 -- TE1
• 2002 -- TE2
• 2003 -- TE1
• 2004 -- TE2
• 2005 -- TE7
• 2006 -- TE3
• 2007 -- TE3

Gonzalez has been a top-10 fantasy TE every year of the last decade. And he's been the top-3 TE in eight of the last nine seasons. That's REMARKABLE. Even more remarkable when you remember how much the fantasy position has changed in the last decade. Gonzalez was among the first of a new breed of NFL TE. A guy who was as sure handed and precise as a wide receiver, but has the size and strength of a tight end. In today's NFL, that's the new model for the position. As a result, what it takes to be a top-5 fantasy TE in 2008 is a lot more than what it took in 1999. Yet Gonzo continues to do his thing.

But his critics are going to argue that he's getting older...

Sure, Gonzo is no spring chicken. But he's only 32 years old and keeps himself in phenomenal shape. Do fantasy owners avoid Terrell Owens because of his age? Randy Moss? Well guess what, those two guys are 34 and 31 years old, respectively. As long as a player of Gonzo's caliber isn't showing signs of decline, it's simply foolish to write him off.

But he doesn't have a QB that we believe in...

I can understand not putting much faith in Brodie Croyle, I don't either. But let me ask you a question, was Gonzo any better off last year when Croyle and Damon Huard were throwing him the ball? He still put up 99 receptions for 1172 yards and 5 TDs. Did he struggle when Elvis Grbac was under center? What about when Rich Gannon (the pre Oakland MVP version) was running 80 yard bootlegs instead of completing passes? Fact is, Gonzalez has been an elite producer regardless of his QB.

But the Chiefs are going to run the ball a ton...

Again I ask, what's difference does that make? Does a team's top receiving target need to worry about run/pass balance? Last year the Chiefs threw the ball a lot, but the year before they were 3rd in the league in rushing. Gonzalez was TE3 in both years. Makes no difference to him.

Positives

• Gonzalez has been a top 3 fantasy TE in eight of the last nine seasons, including 2006 and 2007
• New OC Chan Gailey is light years more qualified to call NFL plays than Mike Solari
• Gonzo plays on a team without quality WR depth, he's assured of targets in any down or distance

Negatives

• Brodie Croyle could struggle at QB and that might mean some inconsistent weeks
• The offensive line isn't what it used to be, which could me new OC Chan Gailey puts a premium on Gonzalez' blocking skills

Final Thoughts

Don't out think yourself. Tony Gonzalez has shown no signs of slowing down and has, over the last decade, proven himself regardless of his situation. He's produced with pass happy coordinators and run happy ones. He's produced with great RBs in the backfield and inept ones. He's done well with good QBs and average ones. Last year, despite catching passes from Croyle/Huard, and having to play in an offense with no run support with play-calling by Mike Solari, Gonzo was an awesome fantasy force. It really can't get any worse this year, and yet owners seem to worry the wheels are going to come off. As long as Gonzo stays healthy, he is as good a bet as any fantasy TE to finish atop the rankings.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

Ketamine Dreams:
Good value. People tend to underrate him. Was the #2 TE last year in PPR and was on a terrible team. Did 99/1172/5 last year, which sounds hard to believe. Finally has another good receiver (Bowe) to take some pressure off. However, the QB and OLine situation in KC isn't great. LJ should be healthy again, and the Chiefs will have to play from behind quite a bit again. Some fall off in numbers is probably expected, but less than you'd think.

The Man with the Plan:
There's something to be said for drafting an all-time great at a position. Season in and season out you know they're going to at least put up good if not great numbers. You don't have to reach to draft Tony Gonzalez either which is always nice.

Ministry of Pain:
75/900/5 minimum, and that is if he just gets terrible QB play IMO.

No WR2 on the team so he could easily hit 90/1,100/5

I don't think he will have a ton of TD but he will get his rec and yds as he passes 10,000 rec yds this season and maybe 1,000 receptions as early as the end of next season, more likely in 2010.

Jon_Moore:
People are allover this board saying that Croyle is one of if not the absolute worst starting QB in the entire NFL. With that wretched quarterback, he caught 99 balls for nearly 1200 yards and 5 tds. Consider he was without Larry Johnson for half the season, and the quarterback play can only improve...he's in store for a good 2008.

It's also worth noting he scored 4 TDs in his 1st 8 games....when Johnson played. Only 1 in the last 8---no Johnson. With Bowe showing he's a legit #1 Receiver, defenses FINALLY have to cover someone not named Tony Gonzalez.

Croyle can't be any worse, Johnson's going to be healthy, Bowe has a full year of starting experience...Gonzalez should contend for the title of TE1 again this year as the offense is considerably better than it was in the 2nd half of 07.

Phlash:
Nothing fancy - he's just going to be a top 3 TE by the years end. The guy is only 31, and considering how well he keeps himself in shape I expect him to play at least 2-4 more *very good* seasons. Next year, I think he'll be putting up numbers similar to what he did this year. Considering how dreadful the QBing was last year, the passing offense can only go up - although I think that while Tony G's numbers will stay the same, I believe the extra production will land in the hands (pun intended) of Dwayne Bowe.

Tony Gonzalez Projections