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Spotlight - WR Ted Ginn, Miami Dolphins

Posted on 6/27, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Marc Levin's Thoughts

I am a Dolphin fan; have been for all my 40 years on Earth. I could not have been more upset when the franchise used the #9 overall pick in 2007 on a speedy receiver/return specialist rather than on a franchise QB or on the rapidly aging defense. I saw nothing from WR Tedd Ginn Jr. in the first nine games of that disastrous '07 Dolphins season to change that attitude. Sure, he was exciting to watch on special teams, and he finally caught a TD in week 8, but so what? That was not helping the team crack their 0-fer streak and win at least one game.

Then, in week 11, it was like a light clicked on for Ginn. He had an 87-yard return for a TD that was the longest I could remember seeing from any Dolphin player. He caught 4 of his 6 targets for 54 yards. What I saw was Ginn beating his man off the line, getting separation early, and consistently catching balls that were on target. That confidence continued into the next several weeks as Ginn averaged over 7 targets, nearly 3 catches, and nearly 40 yards per game. He was catching balls at a 13.35 YPC. That was the first indication I would become a believer. OK, not world-beater numbers, but significantly better than the 20 targets and 7 catches he accumulated through week 10.

Then, Bill Parcells came in to rebuild my team. Wonderful. We are definitely heading in the right direction now. Why do I mention Parcells? Because I believe Parcells looks at Ginn and sees the second coming of Terry Glenn. There is certainly no quicker, faster, more equipped deep threat on the roster. Parcells brought in Ernest Wilford and kept Derek Hagan, who is best suited to be a possession receiver. None of them approach Ginn's speed. Youngster Greg Camarillo is speedy, but he is no real threat to start this year. Ginn will be the team's starter, and he will likely be the team's designated home-run hitter. He could be deadly after the catch. Bill Parcells may see images of Terry Glenn, but when I see Ginn with the ball, I am reminded of a taller version of Carolina's Steve Smith.

Needless to say, after the words above, I believe Ginn is the best the Dolphins have at WR, and that he will emerge this year as the team's primary WR threat. While Wilford and Hagan are sure to snare their fair share of jump balls and fade routes, quickness kills. And Ginn has it. He is the only player on the roster who can consistently get separation using his quicks and then gain yards after the catch using his elusiveness. Steve Smith was slow to develop as a receiver and he started off his career known as an exciting return man. Smith is known for gaining separation using his quickness and for gaining yards after the catch using his elusiveness. Sounds eerily familiar. That said, though I believe Ginn will be the designated downfield threat, Wilford has carried a pretty high YPC average through his career and could be a threat to Ginn's targets.

The real problem for Ginn this year, though, is not competition for targets. It is the quality of the targets he will receive. He will have to contend with a developing QB. Rookie Chad Henne, FA-signee Josh McCown, and 2nd year man John Beck are not likely to emerge as superstars this year. Maybe in a few years one of them will -- and for dynasty purposes, Ginn is one of the more intriguing prospects on the squad. But for redraft purposes, Ginn's 2007 will be limited by his QB's ability to get him the ball. Moreover, HC Tony Sparano welcomed back Ricky Williams, saw Ronnie Brown return to the field, and will likely emphasize the run in order to protect his revamped defense. Finally, let's face facts; the Dolphins were horrid last year. Without more red zone opportunities, every Dolphin player will have limited fantasy value.

Now, when considering whether to draft Ginn in a fantasy redraft this year, there is good news. As of this writing, he still carries a favorable average draft position for a WR4 with WR3 potential. At WR51 and 140th overall (or a 12th round ADP), Ginn will not break your bank even if you reach a little for him in the 9th or 10th round. He is likely to at least live up to his draft spot. The negative to drafting Ginn is that you will never know when to play him. And, he gains very little additional value in PPR leagues. He is not expected to be a reception machine. He is expected to do a lot on fewer catches -- especially without consistent QB play. Now, if you happen to be in a league that rewards return yardage, please feel free to safely bump Ginn into your top-24. Most of us don't play in such leagues, however, so we need to keep a realistic view of how much a player like Ginn can contribute to most fantasy squads this year.

Positives

• Ginn is a "Parcell's-type" player in that he combines a uniquely talented skill set with a strong work ethic
• He and Ronnie Brown are likely the best offensive weapons the Dolphins have and Ginn is easily the most physically gifted of Miami's receivers
• Clearly developed a lot more confidence towards the end of last year, even with poor QB play, and could build on that confidence into a breakout season

Negatives

• Ginn is not an established #1 receiver; he will have to compete for the #1 receiver role; his skill set may be best suited as a home run hitter rather than a primary weapon
• There will likely be inconsistent QB play from whichever of Miami's young guys takes the helm
• For this team to succeed, the running game with Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown will have to be dominant, which could mean fewer strikes downfield to Ginn

Final Thoughts

Ginn will emerge as the Dolphins' number 1 receiver this year. His combination of speed and work ethic will enamor him to the coaching staff and will demonstrate a "Parcells-type" of player. He will be sufficient to fill a WR4 spot under any league format and will be a decent WR3 if you are able to predict the weeks he might go off. His value is not significantly greater in a PPR league than in a non-PPR league. This is because his value will be dependent on gaining yardage in chunks and in busting loose for a TD.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

msommer:
I think we'll see a lot of jump balls to Wilford like in this rookie year. Hopefully he'll catch them and keep his feet inbounds. If I were to guess who gets more receptions between Wilford and Ginn I'd pick the former. Ginn seems very much the stretch the field type of WR - if he can even last a whole season in a featured role.

Jon_Moore:
Ginn's a great deep threat...that averaged 12.8 per as a rookie. I assume that's because of the horrible quarterback play in Miami, unfortunately for Ginn, that's been the case since forever, and doesn't look like it'll change this season. Some people say he has no competition for balls, but Wilford was a very good receiver in Jacksonville in a VERY run-heavy offense. Wilford has a good chance to lead this team in receptions. Ginn should get past defenses a handful of times to find the endzone, but with Ronnie Brown coming off an injury and Ricky Williams being in and out of football, defenses won't stack for the run, Ginn's going to have a hard time this year.

Chaos Commish;
From a few drafts I've followed, I see him going late 9th to early 11th. His current ADP according the consensus here is 140, a 12th rounder in 12 teamer. I think that will steadily climb and by late August Ginn will be a solid 8th rounder. Not hardly end game fodder in an auction or final pick WR5 status. I think it's too early to make reasonable projections on him. Some think he's going to take over as WR1. Some think he's little more than a return specialist. Camp will straighten this out some.

If I were to guess, I expect him to be used primarily to stretch the field and draw double coverage. He was drawing double coverage last year. He drew double coverage when he played with Holmes and Gonzalez. He is the type of weapon who makes his team better but may not produce big fantasy numbers. His hands are much better than he usually gets credit for. So are his routes. He gets separation regularly.

Gatorman:
I shudder to rate any dolphin player b/c it conflicts my homerism and pessemism about this team...

Still, I think when Parcells looked at this team when he got here, he said the two players on his roster that will be here and contribute for a while was Satele (the Center) and Ted Ginn. I believe Ginn could have Chambers like numbers, but with better hands and less drops. As most people have said on this thread however, will he be the #1 guy, or the deep threat to Wilford being the "Keyshawn" of this team (I cannot compare him to owens, but his height and hands make Wilford more of a "keyshawn" type receiver for the phins)

If he is the #1, 110 targets for 80 catches (30 - 40 misses due to erratic QB play/geting on the same page with them), for about 960 and maybe 3-5 TD. He will get good return yardage and perhaps a TD there with the usual parcells (and co) emphasis on Special Teams. I see Wilford, Fasano, and the 3 RBs mentioned hogging most o the TDs, with Ginn's coming from 20 yards out.

Ted Ginn Projections