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Spotlight - TE Antonio Gates, San Diego Chargers

Posted on 7/25, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Mark Wimer's Thoughts

The first thing anyone considering drafting Antonio Gates has to realize is that he had left foot/big toe surgery in late February to repair an injury suffered during the 2007 playoffs. He is expected to be ready for the start of regular season, although he may miss part of training camp. "It's just determining when I'm going to be ready," Gates said in early May. "I know I'm going to be ready. It's just when." We'll have to wait and see how Gates looks in training camp before anyone has a good read on whether he'll be playing in September or not. Gates was not yet running during workouts in early June - he's pretty far from being ready to start participating in full-speed practices, evidently. Scott Chandler has been working with the first team extensively in Gate's absence, and is expected to continue to do so during the opening weeks of training camp. Though the team doesn't like to consider the prospect of starting the season without Gates, they have been preparing Chandler for that possibility. For this very reason, if you are going to roll the dice and invest a pick in Gates, you would be wise to also burn a late-round pick on Chandler, just in case he's the starting TE during September.

There are other concerns among the Chargers' offensive unit, as QB Philip Rivers is coming into 2008 off an ACL tear suffered during the playoffs last January. Happily, he has healed extremely quickly and it appears he'll be able to start for the team as normal this year. However, with both Rivers and Gates hobbled to one extent or another this year, they'll start off regular season 2008 with just a fraction of the usual number of repetitions working together, which could impact both players' sense of timing.

As you can see, the toe injury is just the tip of the iceberg when we start considering Gates' prospects for a strong September. There are good reasons to think he may come out of the gates slowly.

Of course, on the flip side of the coin we saw a convincing demonstration of toughness from Gates during the playoffs last year, as he powered through his dislocated toe for 2 games. Gates is a hard-nosed competitor who will fight through extreme pain to play on game day. As his backup Scott Chandler put it "He can't walk during the week and he gets a little boost at game time, a little adrenaline rush...He's obviously a tough guy. He loves to play the game, so I'm sure he'll be out there when he can be."

The other factor in the equation is Gates' dominance at his position - he's snagged 9 or more TDs for 4 straight seasons, and was the #1 fantasy TE for 3 of the last 4 seasons (ending up #2 to Jason Witten last year by a mere 5 fantasy points). He's averaged 121.75 targets for 79 receptions, 993.5 yards and 10.25 TDs per season over those 4 campaigns. It would be easy to wax rhapsodic over Gates' winning fantasy combination of personal talent and abundant opportunities in the San Diego offense, but suffice it to say this: for the last 4 seasons, the top receiver on the Chargers' roster has been Antonio Gates (and not a wide receiver).

Positives

• Gates is an All-Pro talent at the peak of his career (he's just turned 28 in mid-June)
• Gates is a crucial member of the San Diego offense and has the full faith of coaching staff and the team's QBs
• Gates is, when healthy, a virtual lock for top-3 production at his position

Negatives

• Gates is not healthy, and we won't get a chance to see him in action until very near regular season. Will he return to his old form after the foot surgery?

Final Thoughts

Any serious injury makes me nervous, as I have been reporting on that aspect of this game for many years now, and I have seen many promising careers cut short. In the NFL, even a slight diminishing of physical ability for any given player can result in a dramatic reduction in productivity. The margin that separates an elite player from an average player in this league is actually quite small - every player on a 53-man roster in the NFL is already an uber-elite athlete. All of that said, though, I think that Antonio Gates has shown the mental toughness and desire that allows some guys to overcome mere pain and still produce on game day (much as Plaxico Burress did throughout last year, despite torn ligaments in his right ankle from week 2 onwards). If Jason Witten is off the board, Gates almost has to be the next TE selected despite the uncertainty over his left foot. His potential is simply too great to ignore.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

Phlash:
Antonio Gates was slowed down last season with nagging injuries through the year, which became worse in the playoffs nearly killing his production outright. When healthy, he is an absolute stud, and should be considered the #1 receiver on his team going into next year - forget Chris Chambers and Vincent Jackson. He averages 900+ yards each season and on a good year will give you 10+ TDs. In reality, having him, Witten, or Gonzalez should be your goal if you want to lock up a top tier tight end.

rzrback77:
Antonio Gates is a tough pre-season call as he recovers from off-season toe surgery. He has been an elite performer from the beginning of his second season. He missed one game per year in his first three seasons, but has not missed a game in the past two. He has finished as TE 1 three years and TE 2 in the other.

If he sits out all of pre-season as expected, he will probably be drafted as the third or even fourth TE and could be a huge bargain for those willing to take the risk. He has averaged 85 receptions per year and right at 1,000 yards and 10 TDs over those four years. His current ADP is TE 1 and 44 overall, but he will likely drop lower if he misses all of pre-season. He will slip because if you take a TE that quickly, you can't afford to miss. You are sacrificing value at RB and WR, so you must make it up at TE. Many will be swayed to take others later. I think that he will be ready for the season opener, but it definitely is a situation to monitor closely up to your drafts.

SSOG:
Antonio Gates is always a pricey commodity in fantasy football, costing a 3rd round pick, usually well before any of his TE brethren. And he's totally worth it. Why? Two big reasons.

Reason #1- Reliability. He plays with a QB that his team has given up on in 2004, and puts up a stud season. He plays with a QB widely regarded as a major stud in 2005, and he puts up a stud season. He plays with a new unproven QB with no track record in 2006, and he puts up a stud season. He plays with a QB generally regarded as good but not great in 2007, and he puts up a stud season. He's untested in 2004, suspended in 2005, injured in 2007, and he's a stud. Since breaking out, he's NEVER had fewer than 900 yards, he's NEVER had fewer than 9 TDs, He's NEVER had fewer than 70 grabs. Basically, there are two certainties in fantasy football- Antonio Gates and Peyton Manning. Their bust risk is just so dramatically lower than everyone else's (and remember, 50% of fantasy picks wind up busting in some way shape or form) that they command a premium, and deservedly so.

Reason #2- Production. If you believe in VBD, it's interesting to note that Gates has never finished with a VBD lower than 18th overall, meaning from a strict VBD standpoint, Gates would have justified pick #2.06 or higher EVERY SINGLE SEASON (some seasons he'd justify even more, and you could argue that getting 2.06 production out of pick 2.02 would still be justifying the pick). From a strict VBD standpoint, Gates should be a SECOND rounder, not a third. From a dynamic VBD standpoint, some might argue that you can get great VBD from later TEs, too... but that gets back to point #1- those later TEs are going later because they don't have Gates' reliability.

This season, because of the perceived rise of Gates' peers, he's slipped and is currently costing a 4th rounder, making him an even bigger steal. I mean, an ABSURD steal. Consider this- if Gates were a WR, then based off of current ADP, he would be the 16th WR off the board. Last season, in what as a DOWN YEAR for Gates, an injury-riddled campaign, he outscored the WR16 STRAIGHT UP. And you can start him at the TE position (ask Marques Colston owners in Yahoo leagues his rookie year what kind of advantage that is). If Antonio Gates were a WR, he'd still be worth more than what he's currently going for, but the fact that he's a TE just makes this silly.

Gates is a stud nonpareil. His current cost would be cheap even if we started nothing but flexes and didn't take into account the scarcity of quality players at his position. Taking into account the position he plays, the stats he puts up would justify a draft pick two full rounds earlier than he's currently going. I'll buy that all day long. His injury might scare some people off, but I'm willing to gamble that he'll be ready to go by the opener... and even if he's not, it wouldn't be the first opener he's missed.

David Yudkin, FBG Staff:
Last I heard, Gates has been slow to recover from surgery and could miss some or all of training camp. There's been some talk as to whether he would be good to go by Opening Day, and I've heard that even if he suits up Week 1 he will be hampered in the beginning of the season.

Antonio Gates Projections