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Spotlight - QB David Garrard, Jacksonville Jaguars

Posted on 6/27, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jeff Haseley's Thoughts

David Garrard is being mentioned as a potential top 10 fantasy QB this year. Usually QBs on good teams tend to do well fantasy wise. There is the occasional Troy Aikman or Trent Dilfer, that are perceived as better NFL QBs than fantasy QBs, but for the most part, QBs on playoff teams tend to be in the top 10. In the last five years 62% of QBs in the top 10 were playoff teams that year. Can David Garrard reach that level in 2008?

In his first year of officially being the starting QB for the Jaguars, David Garrard catapulted his team to the 2007 AFC Divisional Playoffs only to lose to the all-world New England Patriots. He passed for 2,509 yards with 18 TD passes and only 3 INTs in 2007, but only played in 12 games. Amazingly, he was good enough to finish as the 16th ranked QB. The question that is on the minds of fantasy enthusiasts everywhere is - can David Garrard turn the corner and become not only a star in the league, but also a top flight fantasy QB?

David Garrard's passing numbers from 2007 don't look that impressive, but if you project them out to a full 16-game season, the full scope of his potential reveals itself.

• Passing yards per game: 209 yards
• TD passes per game: 1.5
• Completion percentage: 64%
• Fantasy points per game: 19.5
• Rushing yards per game: 15.1

Stats projected over a full 16-game season: 3,345 yards passing, 24 TD passes, 4 INTs, 242 yards rushing, 1 rushing TD = 312 FP or a #8 QB ranking. Not too shabby for a team that focuses first on running the football. Jacksonville finished 2nd in rushing offense in 2007.

Reasons for optimism - The Jaguars spent the off season improving their passing game and their defense to go along with a very potent running game. The team signed free agent WRs Jerry Porter and Troy Williamson to go along with steadily improving Reggie Williams and veteran Dennis Northcutt. Jacksonville also has an emerging playmaker in Mike Walker as well at Matt Jones. Jones could be the odd man out of a roster spot eventually, but that is yet to be determined.

Would you want your starting QB putting up these numbers and stats?

• Counting the postseason, Garrard had 15 TD passes in his last eight games last season
• Garrard reached 20 FP or more in 7 of his 12 games in 2007. He had only one game with less than 16.8 FP, which was the week 7 game against IND where he sprained his ankle and missed the next three games
• He did not have a 300-yard passing game in 2007, but he did reach 250 or more yards four times
• Garrard threw at least one TD pass in every game but one in 2007, including the post season. The one game without a TD pass was when he was injured
• 64% completion percentage and 7.7 yards per attempt (7th best and one tenth away from being tied for 3rd best)
• Only threw three INTs in 325 attempts in 2007 - that's one INT every 108 attempts or once every four games

But Jacksonville is a run first team, right? With RBs Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew being the main offensive threats, the Jaguars are better off running the ball, right? Yes, but it's closer than one would think. The Jaguars rushed the ball 521 times compared to 469 pass attempts. They averaged 4.6 yards per rush (3rd best) and 7.5 yards per pass (6th best). Don't look now, but the Jaguars are a well-balanced offensive attack.

But in order to be a top flight QB, you have to have quality WRs, right? One would think so. This could be the reason why David Garrard doesn't reach top 10 status. The Jaguars 2006 and 2007 seasons featured only a total of four 100-yard receivers (two each year). Not since 2005 and the Jimmy Smith era, have the Jaguars had a 1,000-yard receiver. In fact, the closest they have come in the last two years was Matt Jones' 643 yards receiving in 2006. Perhaps the acquisition of WR Jerry Porter will change that, but as of right now, that is a complete unknown. Porter has seen two 900+ yard seasons, but never a 1,000-yard season - and some say his best games are behind him.

Positives

• Garrard is a very efficient QB on a very potent offensive team that will see plenty of red zone opportunities. He really came on last year, especially in the second half and post season. He is the type of QB that can make average WRs good, good WRs great and great WRs stars
• He is a consistent producer of fantasy points. Garrard may not have big explosive fantasy weeks, but he is very consistent. Having a QB put up consistent fantasy numbers is a big plus over the long haul of the season. When looking only at FP/game from QBs last year that started at least 12 games, Garrard's numbers rank him as a top 10 QB
• The Jaguars improved their passing game by signing free agent WRs Jerry Porter and Troy Williamson. WR Reggie Williams has increased his ranking each of his first four years in the league. Last year he finished as the 28th best WR

Negatives

• The Jaguars are a run first team as long as they have the combination of Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew at their disposal. Only the Titans had more rushing attempts than the Jaguars last year. If that continues, it will be difficult for Garrard to put up big passing numbers week in and week out
• Jacksonville has not had a 1000-yard receiver since Jimmy Smith in 2005. They have only had four 100-yard receiving games in the last two years. Their highest receiving yardage in a season in that same time span is only 643 yards by Matt Jones, who many think will be released by the end of the preseason
• Garrard has only played one season as a starter and even that wasn't a full season. He appears to be injury prone and without a track record of several season's worth of consistency, he shouldn't be thought of as a must start QB for your fantasy roster. The potential is definitely there, but there are still 8-10 better options ahead of him

Final Thoughts

As previously mentioned, fantasy gamers everywhere are thinking that David Garrard could be the next QB to break out and produce top QB numbers. Despite the Jaguars being a run first offense, if Garrard continues at the level he played in 2007, he should be able to reach that status. However, the fact that he has only one good season under his belt, leaves many others thinking that last year could've been a fluke season. One thing is for sure, the Jaguars should be one of the better teams in the league in 2008, both offensively and defensively. Usually, QBs on those teams wind up excelling and producing top fantasy numbers. Will this trend continue for Garrard and the Jaguars this year? It very well could. If so, Garrard could be one of the better draft steals, as he is currently being selected as the 90th player and 13th QB in 12-team re-draft leagues. Draft him as your QB2 or a if your strategy is to wait on a QB, get two QBs in the late single-digit rounds like Eli Manning and Garrard so you can maximize your value with other positions and still have quality from your QB slot.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

The Man with the Plan:
When will people learn? You can always find good quarterbacks later in the draft. It's one of the easiest spots to fill in fantasy football. Most of the time it's not worth the risk to pay for some qb's career year hoping that they can repeat it which is usually the case when a player is drafted so high. I won't complain when people do it though. It just means more good backs and receivers for me.

Anyways Garrard seems as good of a qb pick up later in the draft this season as any. He can throw and he can run which is always a plus. He played well with Reggie Williams and bleh last season. If Porter and Williamson can actually play this season Garrard could put up a nice season. The Jaguars are a running team at heart however so expectations must always be tempered somewhat. So a 30 TD 4000 yard season is most probably not happening for him. A 3000 yard 20 TD with rushing stats to boot wouldn't be so bad.

Sweet Love:
Garrard is a solid NFL QB, but he will never win you a FF championship. He TD/INT ratio last year was certainly one for the books, but that is because he plays on a team with a conservative offensive game plan. It would be extremely difficult for him to come close to the TD/INT ratio he had in '07 and his team does not "air it out" enough for him to make up the FF points he will lose by throwing up more INTs in '08.

Chase Stuart, FBG Staff:
Every year, there are lots of complaints that FBG staffers engage in group think, or don't think outside the box, or don't make risky predictions. Every year, I'm usually part of the charge defending such actions, as I believe against the grain predictions are generally bad. Making a weird ranking to be different, to take a risk, to think outside the box, or to simply gain attention seems ludicrous. I believe everyone's projections and rankings should reflect how they actually feel. If I think RB10 is really RB5, and RB1 is really RB4, I shouldn't rank RB10 higher than RB1 just to do something different, because I believe RB10 is better than RB1. And I tend to think that's what people sometime want to see -- rankers taking some risks.

That being said, this year I see something that 1) is really out of place with conventional wisdom; and 2) I really believe in. I think David Garrard should be ranked ahead of Carson Palmer. I'm not alone here as Tefertiller has Garrard slightly ahead of Palmer, and Maurile has Garrard just one spot behind Palmer. According to ADP, Palmer is QB5 and Garrard is QB12. I think Palmer is really overrated, Garrard is really underrated, and Garrard is actually better than Palmer. Hence the thread.

I think Garrard is better than Palmer for three reasons. Garrard was better than Palmer last year, Garrard's prospects have improved since last year, and Palmer's prospects have decreased since last year.

Garrard was better than Palmer last year

What, you say? How in the world was Garrard better than Palmer last year? Didn't Carson Palmer outscore Garrard by over 70 points last year? Well, yeah.

But Palmer took every snap of every game in '07. Garrard actually missed a bunch of time. He missed four full games, over half the Colts game, he missed about a third of the Raiders game, and part of the Panthers game, too. The Colts one was due to injury, and the other two were due to blowouts. So while Palmer played in 16 full games, Garrard only played in about 10.9 games. If you look at Team QB rankings, Jacksonville ranked 9th with 357 FP and Cincinnati ranked 12 with 324 FP. You might think Garrard should be penalized for missing games due to injury, blowout or his team having locked up a playoff spot. I'll get to that at the end.

But for now, Garrard averaged 23.2 FP/G in his 10.9 games, and Palmer averaged 20.2 FP/G in his 16.0 games. But wait, there's more. Palmer had a slightly easier than average schedule. Garrard had a really difficult one. He played 1.3 games against the Colts, who had an excellent D against fantasy QBs last year. So did the Chargers, and Bills, and Raiders and Chiefs. He had only two easy games, one against Atlanta and one against Denver. But on average, his schedule was very tough. If you adjust Garrard's number for strength of schedule, you see he would have scored 24.7 FP/G in his 10.9 games last year, while Palmer (after SOS adjustment) would have scored) 20.0 FP/G.. In sum, all of Palmer's apparent success over Garrard last year was due to his extra games and easier schedule. You might think that Garrard will have a tough schedule again, or Palmer an easy one again; we'll get to that in the end. But it is clear that whenever the QB was playing last year, Garrard was the much more effective fantasy player.

The off-season

For Garrard, his team added Jerry Porter and Troy Williams. I'm not a fan of either, but hey, they can't hurt. Porter's better than nothing, and the Jags WRs just weren't that good last year. Cincy added Gabriel and Utecht, but the big development is Chad Johnson. Obviously, that's not a good sign for Palmer. The Bengals team in general certainly looks to be trending downward, and there are questions about whether Johnson will actually play this year. If he isn't a Bengal, I think it's obvious that Palmer isn't as good a fantasy option as Garrard. But even if he is, Cincy and Palmer haven't done anything to close the gap that Garrard had on Palmer already.

Now, I said we'd discuss whether it's fair to ignore Garrard's risk of injury and SOS. The fact that Garrard sat in some blowouts last year doesn't concern me -- predicting which QBs will be rested due to blowouts or locking up playoff berths is practically impossible (unless it's Peyton Manning). The injury question is a legitimate one, especially since Garrard has never played a full season. But Palmer's had a serious injury before, and it just happened to come in week 18. Is he less injury prone than Garrard? Maybe, maybe not. It's not easy to say. But even if he is, I don't think Garrard is anywhere near so injury prone enough to ignore his potential upside. With my QB, I'll take a small injury risk at a position where just about every QB is an injury risk, Palmer included.

What about SOS? I project Garrard and Palmer with almost identical strengths of schedule this year. Palmer has about a 2 FP advantage,, which equates to just 0.125 FP/G. And neither I nor anyone else can predict SOS to within 0.1 FP/G, so it's basically a wash.

To recap, Garrard was the MUCH better fantasy player last year when healthy and accounting for SOS. Considering that their SOS is essentially even this year, and Garrard's injury risk isn't really any scarier than Palmer, those two factors shouldn't concern you in 2008. Sure, Palmer scored a ton more FPs, but that's only because Garrard got hurt and had a hard schedule. Do you want to bank on that happening again? It's easy to see Palmer's gaudy passing numbers and be blinded, but Garrard had an incredible season in '07. Do I see him repeating his 18/3 TD/INT ratio this year? Of course not. But he's got nearly a 5 FP/G cushion on Palmer already; he can regress a bit this year and still be better than Palmer. He should see more pass attempts this year, as he hits his prime and Fred Taylor leaves his. And I don't see much to convince me that Palmer's going to be throwing two or three TDs for every INT anymore, either. This isn't the 2005 Bengals. Chris Henry and Eric Steinbach are gone. Willie Anderson is 33 and coming off an injury-plagued season; he's not a 30 year old All Pro.

Palmer is very overrated, leaving out the potential disaster involving Chad Johnson. David Garrard is very underrated. And Garrard is better than Palmer.

rzrback77:
Jacksonville has attempted 484, 446, and 469 passes in 05, 06, and 07 for 3340, 3060. and 3495 yards. They have passed for 21, 17, and 28 TDs and threw 6, 14, and 8 interceptions. Despite not having a name QB or any name WRs, they haven't done that badly. But still they prefer to pound the running game behind their two capable starting RBs, Fred Taylor and MJ Drew. Over the same three seasons they rushing attempts by their running backs have steadily increased from 423 to 430 and up to 445 last year.

Garrard had a nice season completing 64% of his attempts for 7.7 ypa and 2509 yards, but since he only played 12 games that comes out to 209 yards oer game. His most outstanding stat line was 18 TDs and only 3 ints. I see a decrease in TDs and an increase in interceptions for 08. He is currently being drafted as the 13th QB at 90 overall. This is the key consideration for Garrard. If you like him and think that he can reproduce last year's stats for the full season, then you can take him there and get a bargain. I like Schaub, Rodgers, Campbell and others better than Garrard, so I enjoy him being ranked there as it allows me to get my bargain QBs even later.

sholditch:
It probably comes down to coaching philosophy more than anything else: play conservative with a lead or keep on the attack.

Teams vary so much from year to year that it's really tough to say whether we can expect basically the same from the JAX air attack or not. Goes for Cincy too. That's why I don't put stock in extrapolating stats over a whole season. We don't know if Garrard would tire in a 16-game season, or go through a slump, etc. Of course you never know anything going into a season.

Since this is a projection thread I'll make mine:

3300-22-8
110-400-3

I like Garrard a lot but I don't think he has 4,000-yar potential THIS YEAR. ONly because this will really be his first year starting and I just don't think that JAX will need the air attack like Cincy will.

David Garrard Projections