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Spotlight - QB Jeff Garcia, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Posted on 7/17, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Colin Dowling's Thoughts

As of this writing, it would appear that Jeff Garcia will enter the season as the Buccaneer's starting quarterback. Between Tampa Bay's long list of quarterbacks currently on the roster and the rampant rumors of an interest in Brett Favre, a casual observer might suspect Garcia's job is in jeopardy.

Not so fast.

While Jeff Garcia is 38 years old, his performance and leadership for Tampa Bay in 2007 were just what the doctor ordered. After years of yo-yoing young, inconsistent passers, Jon Gruden finally took note of the obvious: the Buccaneers don't need a superstar quarterback to win but rather a consistent, mistake-free signal-caller to manage the game. Jeff Garcia's 2007 season fit such a description perfectly. Despite a relatively low number of total touchdowns (14), Garcia completed nearly 64% of his passes for a respectable 7.5 yards per attempt. As a result, the Buccaneers won their division and Garcia was awarded a trip to the Pro Bowl for the first time since 2002.

For the 2008 season, Garcia will almost assuredly enter camp as Tampa Bay's starting quarterback. While other quarterbacks on the roster like Josh Johnson and Luke McCown will work to be positioned as Tampa Bay's quarterback of the future, a change from Garcia would seem unlikely unless the team loses a lot of games early on.

Fantasy expectations should be tempered. While Tampa has added depth at the skill positions, the team is hardly poised to be an offensive juggernaut. Most likely, Gruden and company will rely on stingy defense and a relatively weak division to help their win-loss record.

Positives

• Garcia enters the season camp with the same team as the previous season for the first time since 2003. His comfort level with the offense should lead to an increase in production, albeit a slight one
• Garcia may no longer be a threat to post lots of rushing yards, but his mobility will help him find the end zone with his feet and, more importantly, help him buy time to make more things happen through the air
• Additional depth at wide-receiver and some stability in the running game should help the entire offense out-produce 2007's run of the mill numbers

Negatives

• At 38 years old, it's only a matter of time until Garcia is asked to hold the clipboard for a younger player
• Even as a Pro-Bowler in 2007, Garcia's fantasy production was somewhat lacking. It's hard to imagine significant improvement on those numbers even in the best case scenario
• Garcia hasn't been healthy enough to play a full season since 2003, which should cause worry for those expecting him to be useful later in the season
• Ongoing contract situation should be resolved well before the season, but anytime a player holds out, fantasy owners should take note of the disruption it can cause both he and the team

Final Thoughts

Expectations for Jeff Garcia should be somewhat muted. Despite the fact that 2007 showed him to still be a useful NFL quarterback with the ability to win games, a lack of touchdowns last year and a lack of dynamic off-season additions over the spring mean his upside is limited. In a best case scenario, we envision Jeff Garcia to match last year's production. If the wheels come off for either Garcia or the Bucs, it isn't a stretch to think one of the younger players (specifically McCown or Johnson) could get some of the late season snaps. Garcia has value in larger leagues as a backup quarterback, but it would be a mistake to count on him for too much.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

rzrback77:
I remember the success that Garcia had in relief of Donovan McNabb for the Eagles in 06. He followed that up with a decent season for the Bucs last year, although he did miss three games. However, a closer look at the numbers reveals some problems.

Problem #1 - Garcia has already turned 38. He is a short 6'-1" QB that weighs 195 and he doesn't have that escapability like he once had. Ominous stats there.

Problem #2 - Going all the way back to 02, he has never had more than one 300-yard game in a season and one year had none.

Problem #3 - Joey Galloway and Ike Hilliard are getting long in the tooth and everyone else at WR has huge questions.

Jason Wood, Senior Staff Writer:
Everything you say is true, and you also can't discount that Gruden loves to hoard QBs and seemingly remains on the quest to find "his guy."

That said, the guy did completely almost 64% of his passes last year, he threw 3x the number of TDs to interceptions and had an excellent 7.5 yards per pass attempt. All things being equal, I'm not sure why being 38 this year should be any more of a concern that his being 37 last year; when he was an effective NFL starter.

Now, since we're talking fantasy QBs; it's hard to get excited about Garcia's prospects IMHO. He ranked 18th last year but that's misleading because of his points per game. Adjusting for points per game (Garcia played in 13 games), he was actually 24th among fantasy passers. Hardly the stuff to get excited about in 10- and 12-team redrafts.

Jon_Moore:
Garcia was an excellent real life quarterback last season with a QB rating of 94.6, a completion % just under 64, and 7.5 YPA. Those things considered, it's hard to really say he's lost anything involved in his passing ability. His YPC was a pretty sad 3.3, but at 38, mobility is bound to wane. Joey Galloway hasn't lost a step, and he'll be able to get open for Garcia plenty. This is a tough defensive team that likes to run as much as possible. Garcia's probably going to be playing the role of care-taker more so than game-winner, and given the low int #s the last 2 years, he seems to do a very good job at that. The Bucs only passed a total of 490 times last year, and unless something happens to the defense, it's hard to see that number increasing.

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