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Spotlight - WR Joey Galloway, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Posted on 6/13, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Marc Levin's Thoughts

Veteran receivers do not retire; they are like the Energizer Bunny. Or they are like wine; if they do not turn to vinegar after 7 or 8 years in the league, they age beautifully. So, what to do when projecting a veteran receiver like Joey Galloway? You look to see if there is any change in his circumstances, or any lingering career threatening injuries (see Terry Glenn, Chris Carter, Irving Fryar). If there are no serious injury concerns and no significantly negative changes in circumstances, you may project him in line with his three prior years in the league.

In that vein, let us examine Galloway's circumstances. There are a few new pieces in the backfield. Michael Bennett and Warrick Dunn will be replacing Michael Pittman and, likely, Cadillac Williams. Zero-sum gained there. Brian Griese replaces Bruce Gradkowski as a backup QB. If anything, that is a positive for Galloway (with the combination of Chris Simms and Brian Griese in 2005, Galloway had his best fantasy year since 1998). Galloway is still the team's primary receiver. Ike Hilliard, Michael Clayton, and a bunch of unproven talent will fight for scraps. No change to the coaching staff or offensive philosophy. There are no significant changes in his circumstances.

Injury Concerns? Galloway injured his shoulder late in the 2007 season and was clearly limited in the playoffs against the Giants. He did not have a good game from weeks 15 forward. That really hurt his owners in the fantasy playoffs. He had surgery on the shoulder during the offseason and has proclaimed himself 100 percent ready for the season. The injury has to be a concern given Galloway's injury history. The guy seems to get nicked up a bit. Also, Galloway will be 37 years old this year. 37!! Can you really bet on a 37-year-old receiver getting better this year than in previous years? Probably not the smartest move.

Your fellow fantasy drafters clearly see the downside of drafting Galloway. He is currently being drafted as the WR34, #88 overall. Heck, even most of us on the Footballguys.com staff project Galloway to barely flirt with 1,000 yards receiving and a handful of TDs. Those numbers place him behind Jerricho Cotchery, Javon Walker, and Anthony Gonzalez. Caution regarding Galloway you say? Risky drafting of potential upside I say. In the 7th round, I would like a guy with decent potential upside. But what I really want is a guy with a high floor. A high floor is what you get in Galloway and not what you get from most of the receivers available in that range.

The stats kind of speak for themselves. Over the last three years, Galloway has averaged 130 targets, 67 receptions, 1120 receiving yards, 7-8 TDs, an insanely high YPC, and a WR13/WR14 fantasy finish. He entered each of those seasons with the exact same age and injury concerns - and he enters 2008 with fundamentally the same situation as he entered each of those years. Why expect anything different from him this year? Maybe the fact that I am also a 35+ years old man makes me pull a little harder for Galloway, but I see no reason for him to significantly fall off of his statistical averages.

Positives

• Top-24 WR statistics in each of the last three years and a return to essentially the same circumstances
• Virtually no competition for targets as Galloway is indisputably the team's best receiver
• At his current ADP of WR34 and 88th overall, Galloway is one of the best value plays at any position in a fantasy draft, and certainly one of the best values for a WR3

Negatives

• alloway is going to be 38 years old this November; age and injury history have to be a concern
• There is a revolving door of unimpressive QBs between Jeff Garcia, Brian Griese, and Chris Simms, and a HC in Jon Gruden who is not afraid to give the door a whirl
• His upside potential is limited on a team with a ball-control offense

Final Thoughts

Draft Galloway if your fellow drafters allow him to fall to his current ADP. Do not fear his injury -- he is averaging 15 games per season since his terrible injury in 2000. He has succeeded while he has been a Buccaneer -- even with that team keeping a constantly revolving door at QB, RB, and second receiver. The only consistent offensive performer on that squad is Joey Galloway. Therefore, there is every reason to expect a statistical floor very near his three-year statistical average. I will say it here and now: if our numbers reflect a 16-game season, my fellow staff members are, for the most part, drastically under-projecting Galloway's 2008 stats.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

Ministry of Pain:
Very simple. He is the WR1, he has 3 straight 1,000 yard seasons, and he also rested the last 2-3 weeks last season which is why there was an ever slight dip in his numbers. Unless he hits the wall, he is a surefire bet for about 1,000 yds and 6 TD.

Michael J. Fox:
As MOP noted above, Galloway played sparingly the end of 2007, so his stats were at a minimum in line with 2006. Who else will catch the ball in Tampa this year?

That said, the guy is 37 years old, and eventually he'll face an unexpected, precipitous decline. Is this the year? Who knows?

Jon_Moore:
When Galloway pulled 1200+ in 2005, I was a non-believer. When he repeated in 2006, he became one of my favorite fantasy receivers. 3 straight 1,000+ yard seasons, the receptions have dropped, but the Yards per Catch have gone up each of those 3 seasons...which really tells me he hasn't lost a step. I see NO reason not to expect 1,000 yards again

Iwannabeacowboybaby!:
This guy's been underrated in more drafts than I care to count. He's a bit inconsistent in his points per game but at the end of the year, Galloway gets his.

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