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Spotlight - RB Matt Forte, Chicago Bears

Posted on 7/10, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jason Wood's Thoughts

I'm really unhappy that Cedric Benson was released by the Bears. Not because I'm a Benson fan, far from it. But because Benson's release has turned the spotlight on rookie RB Matt Forte. You see, I envision Forte as one of those RBs I could target in every league, in the middle rounds, as some Benson apologist took him a few rounds earlier convinced he would right the ship. Meanwhile I was going to swoop in and grab the relatively unheralded Tulane rookie with the understanding that I was getting the Bears eventual starter and a potential fantasy stud in the making.

Wait a second, POTENTIAL FANTASY STUD? You heard me right. If there's one position you shouldn't be afraid to target rookies it's the RB position. RB (along with CB) is an instinctive position for the most part. There's a lot of truth in the notion that either a RB has it, or he doesn't. Take a look at the league's all-time best runners and you won't find many that struggled to make their marks as rookies. They started right away, and only got better.

Take a look at the rookie RBs that have enjoyed top-20 fantasy seasons over the last 10 years:

• Adrian Peterson (2007-MIN) -- RB3
• Marshawn Lynch (2007-BUF) -- RB12
• Maurice Jones-Drew (2006-JAX) -- RB8
• Joseph Addai (2006-IND) -- RB11
• Reggie Bush (2006-NO) -- RB17
• Cadillac Williams (2005-TB) -- RB19
• Domanick Williams (2003-HOU) -- RB14
• Clinton Portis (2002-DEN) -- RB4
• LaDainian Tomlinson (2001-SD) -- RB7
• Dominic Rhodes (2001-IND) -- RB11
• Anthony Thomas (2001-CHI) -- RB13
• Mike Anderson (2000-DEN) -- RB4
• Jamal Lewis (2000-BAL) -- RB16
• Edgerrin James (1999-IND) -- RB1
• Olandis Gary (1999-DEN) -- RB14
• Fred Taylor (1998-JAX) -- RB4
• Robert Edwards (1998-NE) -- RB8

To summarize, over the last decade:

• 17 rookies have finished in the top-20
• 8 rookies have finished in the top-10

OK, so we know rookie RBs can have success, but why would I think Matt Forte could be such a rookie? After all, aren't guys like Darren McFadden, Jonathan Stewart and Rashard Mendenhall in better positions to break out?

Not in my opinion. Here are the reasons I think Matt Forte can end up in the top-20 by season's end:

1. Opportunity -- Matt Forte is going to have every opportunity to win the starting job in camp. With Benson's release, he faces the decidedly mediocre Adrian Peterson (no, not THAT Adrian Peterson) and Garrett Wolfe as competition. The Bears aren't constructed to win games through the air, they absolutely need a consistent, productive ground game and that only comes to fruition if Forte is the real deal. I know a lot of people are going to raise concern about Adrian Peterson splitting touches, but I just don't see it happening. Peterson has had his chances and done nothing with them. He's a journeyman and a placeholder. He MIGHT see some work in 3rd down situations, but as we'll see in a moment, it won't be because Forte isn't a skilled receiver in his own right.
2. Rushing Ability and Durability -- If you're not a Tulane alumnus, I can forgive you for not knowing about Forte. The 6'2", 216 pound back ran for an astounding 361 carries for 2,127 yards and 23 TDs as a senior. He then won MVP honors at the Senior Bowl, which has often been a good predictor of NFL success.
3. Receiving Ability --Even if you knew about Forte's rushing production, you may not have realized what a talented receiver he is. Last year, he was SECOND ON THE TEAM with 32 receptions for 282 yards. In today's NFL, if you can't catch passes out of the backfield, you can't play all three downs. Forte won't have that problem.
4. He's a willing blocker -- The play as a rookie, you need to know your blocking schemes. Forte has always been a willing blocker and given his size, it should be a transition he makes faster than some of the other more heralded rookie runners.
5. He signed quickly -- Holdouts can kill a promising rookie season, but that won't be a concern as Forte signed a 4-year deal in early July. He's got the benefit of absorbing the playbook and getting first team reps at the very outset, which should mean he's the odds on favorite to start the season in the starting lineup.
6. The Bears defense looks to bounce back -- The Bears defense was a disappointment last season but looks to bounce back in 2008. Lance Briggs re-signed and Tommie Harris was made the league's highest paid defensive tackle. Key contributors Harris, CB Nathan Vasher and S Mike Brown should all be healthy after struggling last year with their health. Those three guys in the lineup makes Chicago an elite defense again. That means winning games through controlling the ball, limiting turnovers, and running down the clock. Sounds like a recipe for lots of carries for Matt Forte, doesn't it?

There are three potential flies in the ointment:

• A completely ineffective passing game -- Even a great RB isn't going to score many touchdowns or sustain drives if the passing game is completely ineffective. The Bears kept the QB duo of Kyle Orton and Rex Grossman and proceeded to replace WRs Bernard Berrian and Muhsin Muhammad with Marty Booker and rookie Earl Bennett. Yikes. The Bears passing stats don't have to be off the charts for Forte to succeed, but they can't be awful, either.
• A veteran free agent acquisition -- There are a number of viable veteran RBs waiting for an offer. Most notably Shaun Alexander but let's not forget about Kevin Jones, Najeh Davenport, Ron Dayne & Travis Henry. If the Bears sign any of those guys to a contract, it would argue for more of a committee approach.
• An "offensive" offensive line -- The Bears ranked dead last in yards per rush (3.1) last season and were 30th in rushing yards. While some of that was the lackluster efforts of Cedric Benson, the offensive line wasn't exactly blowing open huge holes for the Bears tailbacks, either. The good news is the Bears drafted OT Chris Williams in the 1st round which allows them to move John Tait back to his more natural RT position. The bad news is Williams is a rookie trying to play LT in a division with some of the league's best defensive lines.

Positives

• The Bears want and need to run the ball often if they have any hope of contending
• With Cedric Benson's release, Matt Forte is the favorite to earn the starting job right out of the gate
• Forte is under contract, has a head start on learning the offense, and has the all-around skill set that translates into being an every down contributor

Negatives

• The Bears passing attack may be so bad it's impossible for the running game to generate consistent output
• Some of Forte's success hinges on improvement from the offensive line and defensive units; neither of which are guaranteed
• The Bears could still be in the market for a veteran RB to split time with Forte

Final Thoughts

If you can't already tell, I'm a big fan of Matt Forte. The Bears have been waiting for a RB that could be their workhorse and return the Bears to the kind of smash mouth style Soldier Field is known for. Few rookies have as clear an opportunity to start from Day One as Forte does, and he's got the head, hands, work ethic and skill to do so. Forte won't fail because of anything he does wrong. The only way he won't success is because of the other people wearing Bears uniforms. The GREAT thing about Forte is he can be had on the cheap. His current ADP puts Forte as the 29th RB off the board and 59th overall. There's simply no way his ADP stays that low if he tears it up in early preseason action, but in either case, Forte should be on your radar as a compelling backup with tremendous upside.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

J-Rock:
I think Forte has a great shot at being this years top rookie RB. You know Chicago wants to run the football and from what I've seen of Forte he has the size and skill set to be an every down back. He's got great vision and acceleration to find and get through the hole and I love how he finishes runs. He may not have 4.3 speed but he is fast enough to be effective

mlball77:
I'm a Bears homer... so take this for what it is worth.

1) The o-line is not very good, but should be better than last year. The addition of 1st rd pick, Williams, along with improved health in general will have a positive impact on the rushing game.

2) I truly feel the Bears d will be a lot better this year. Again, health issues were a huge problem last year. While maybe not an elite unit, I think the Bears D will be very tough in 2008.

3) The QB play and passing game will most likely struggle badly. No shocker here.

In my view, when these three things are combined, I think the Bears really will try to grind out some games...letting their D win them (hopefully). I think this means plenty of work for Forte & Peterson.

Chairshot:
As mentioned before, the Bear's O line, QB and WRs are all questionable, at best (more realistically you would probably say they are some of the worst in the league), which leads me to believe that we are probably talking a less then 4 yards per carry situation. Plus, they could easily be playing from behind a lot, so it seems really possible to me that they will have to pass more then they would like in the second half of games to try and play catch up.

Adrian Peterson, while not a great running back, was clearly the 3rd down and passing down back for the Bears last year and did really well. Peterson being seventh in the league in RB targets and fifth in the league in RB receptions leads me to believe that Peterson will stay the passing down back, making Forte will be a 2 down back, limiting his touches. Since Forte wasn't really known for his pass catching skills in college, I'm thinking that it's unlikely that Forte steals snaps in those situations from Peterson.

Forte could break out, sure. Rookies having great seasons certainly isn't unheard of. But to me, talk of a 1100 yard, 30 catch season seems like the very high ceiling of what might happen. It seems much more likely that he will perform as a boarder line RB2 or a solid RB3 then be a top 10-12 fantasy back.

geoff8695:
Although I could see the 29 yr. old 3rd down back, Peterson, taking some carries away early in the season until Forte settles into the role, I seriously doubt that a full blown RBBC will develop. Peterson just doesn't have featured RB ability, and his career stats as well as his brief 5 game stint as the starter in 2007 bear this out. A closer look at last year's stats show that 116 of Peterson's 151 carries came during the last 6 games of 2007 directly as a result of Benson's injury. His 151 carries last year were also more rushing attempts than his prior five years combined! Finally, Peterson's performance over this stretch was hardly inspiring (3.2YPC and 1 TD). Combine that with the fact that the Bears appear to be ignoring all of the bargain basement free agent RBs who have experience as feature backs in the NFL, and I would say that all signs indicate they are prepared to hand the full time duties over to the rookie, Matt Forte.

cstu:
Forte has a good chance of getting most of the carries because he's apparently a great blocker. Peterson is a good receiver, but he's no threat to take many carries away from Forte. There's a reason Peterson has been a backup his whole career and that's not suddenly going to change after they draft Forte, unless Forte is a complete bust the way Benson was. Forte was drafted to be the starter and although he likely won't run for much more than 3.5 YPC in the Bears offense, he still has a good shot at getting 300 carries this year.

Matt Forte Projections