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Spotlight - QB Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens

Posted on 8/8, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jason Wood's Thoughts

How's the saying go, if you have two quarterbacks you don't have any? So what does it mean when you have THREE quarterbacks? The Ravens are one of several NFL teams with a wide open QB competition heading into training camp. And you couldn't get a more different trio of players:

• Kyle Boller -- Entering his 6th year after being drafted in the 1st round by the Ravens. Boller is 6'3", 225 pounds, 27 years old. Boller has started 42 games in his career (20 wins, 22 losses) and has been decidedly mediocre. He's got 45 career TDs in 42 starts, and 44 INTs. He's completed 56.9% of his passes but has shown steady improvement (from 51.8% in 2003 to 61.1% last year). Boller has no mobility and is prone to holding onto the ball too long, which explains his career 7.2% sack rate despite having a Hall of Famer at left tackle for most of his career.
• Troy Smith -- Entering his 2nd year after being drafted in the 5th round by the Ravens. Smith is 6'0", 225 pounds, 24 years old. Smith was a Heisman Trophy winner at Ohio State, but lacked the size and measurables to warrant a high draft grade. After Steve McNair and Boller struggled last year, Smith got starts in the final two games (1 win, 1 loss). He completed just 52.6% of his passes but threw for 452 yards and 2 TDs. Unlike Boller, Smith is a nimble runner and rushed for 54 yards and a score in very limited play.
• Joe Flacco -- Entering his rookie season after being drafted 18th overall in the April draf. Flacco is from small school Delaware but has prototypical size. At 6'6", 236 pounds Flacco is one of the biggest QBs in the league and has the arm to match.

Further complicating the situation is the Ravens complete coaching overhaul. Brian Billick, one of the longest tenured coaches in the league a year ago, is gone and John Harbaugh takes over. Harbaugh is not only a 1st time NFL head coach, but he's spent most of his coaching career as a special teams coordinator in Philadelphia. We really have no idea what Harbaugh's coaching philosophy is yet, although we can imagine he was informed by what he saw from Andy Reid in Philly all these years. In an attempt to mitigate his inexperience, Harbaugh hired a proven NFL coordinator, Cam Cameron, to run the offense. Cameron looks to reestablish himself after a forgettable year as the Dolphins head coach. What's interesting is that Harbaugh comes from Philadelphia, where they're firmly entrenched in the West Coast offense. But Cameron is a clear disciple of the Air Coryell offense. Will Cameron work WCO concepts into the game plan? Probably not. You don't hire someone of Cameron's pedigree and ask him to teach a system he's unfamiliar with.

With the state of the offensive line, does it even matter to fantasy owners who wins this job? Probably not. It's hard to believe the Ravens once dominant offensive line is now ashambles. Jon Ogden retired leaving a gaping hole at LT. Jared Gaither is supposed to replace Ogden but has missed most of training camp with a high ankle sprain. Starting right tackle Adam Terry no sooner moved over to LT in place of Gaither before he too hurt his ankle. In Terry's case it's irritation as he works through scar tissue from offseason surgery.

Positives

• Flacco is the future of the franchise. He was drafted under the new coaching regime, and clearly will be given every opportunity to start if not in 2008 than in 2009
• Flacco has a monster arm and is built like a defensive end. He should be able to take a pounding
• Derrick Mason and Todd Heap are sure handed and reliable receivers for a young QB looking for safety valves

Negatives

• Flacco is a BIG target, and it's unclear whether he can keep upright as pass rushers tee off on him
• The offensive line looks, well, offensive
• There are no guarantees that Flacco will see any time in 2008

Final Thoughts

Flacco's future is clear, but his present isn't. If either Troy Smith or Kyle Boller outplay current expectations and lead the Ravens to a winning season, expect Flacco to sit on the bench and learn by observation. If the opening day starter struggles though, or the Ravens as a team endure a losing season, expect Flacco to get a few starts at the end of the year to prepare him for a full-time opportunity in 2009. Either way, he's not a compelling fantasy option in redraft leagues.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

Duckboy:
While not a complete dead zone, I expect that the Ravens will be primarily a run-oriented team, Cam effect not withstanding. Flacco is the future, but I doubt they throw him to the wolves to start the year. He's been signed which is good as he will get the practice time. Troy starts the year, with Boller in the mix for a bit; once they are out of it, it will be time to see what the rookie can do. That means no one gets enough to be even draftable in redraft.

Smith: 135/210, 1315 yds, 7 TDs/6 INTs, 25/137 rush - QB32
Flacco: 101/185, 1225 yds, 5 TDs/7 INTs, 12/25 rush - QB34
Boller: 45/80, 525 yds, 3 TDs/5 INTs, 6/15 rush - QB46

Bleh all around. Flacco should be a decent option in dynasty but an avoid in redrafts.

The Man with the Plan:
If one of these guys ever panned out the Ravens QB could be a legit fantasy option in 2008. This team has offensive weapons in Derrick Mason, Mark Clayton, Todd Heap, and Willis McGahee along with an offensive coordinator in Cam Cameron who knows what to do with them. Keep an eye on this situation in training camp.

Iwannabeacowboybaby!:
Baltimore is possibly the worst passing team heading into the season and what's worse, you don't even know for sure who there starting quarterback is going to be. Most fantasy football owners don't really care too much, because if you're stuck starting one of these guys, most likely you're team is in big trouble. Still, there are some formats where you start 2 QB's or Survivor Leagues where having a starter on the roster and getting a chance to take anyone's top week is always helpful, so trying to figure out who's going to get the majority of snaps is a good thing.

Kyle Boller has had his chances. The Ravens know what Boller can bring, and it isn't much. He knows their system but to me he's the last resort unless Troy Smith gets hurt early which leaves Flacco not ready then you'd insert Boller.

I like Troy Smith to start. I thought he looked decent at the end of last season. He did make some strides from what I saw earlier last season, which was horrific. I was actually kind of amazed that he was able to play pretty good, something I can't say about Kyle Boller. How good can Smith be? I'm not really sure, I don't think the Ravens know for sure but they did draft a QB high in the draft which leads me to believe they are banking on him.

Joe Flacco is hopefully the future. If the Ravens are a poor team, expect to see him later in the year. In a talented AFC, there's no reason to rush this guy along this year, the Ravens aren't going anywhere.

Andy Herron:
As my posts in other threads would attest, I'm a pretty firm believer in Troy Smith this year. If he can win the starting role in training camp and the preseason, which he should, I can see him playing further into the season than most think.

Reason being, nobody in the AFC North is going to run away with the division. Aside from the head-to-head matchups, they also have to play the NFC East and AFC South. The two toughest divisions in the league. I don't think Baltimore will be ruled out until at least late November or early December. Given that Smith stays healthy, I think he can put up some respectable numbers. Certainly not QB1 consideration, but in given weeks a respectable QB2 or bye week fill-in. He's smarter with the football than the projections thus far would indicate in regards to the TD/Int ratio.

Joe Flacco Projections