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Spotlight - WR Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals

Posted on 7/14, exclusive to Footballguys.com

David Yudkin's Thoughts

At this point, even the most casual of fantasy football fans should have full knowledge of Larry Fitzgerald and should already be aware that he's one of the game's elite receivers. If I had a series of catch phrases, I'd list them here, so feel free to pick one: "once in a generation receiver," "God given talent," "a force that can't be stopped," or any of a slew of other football clichés. Bottom line, the man has skills. And this off-season, he signed a $40 million deal with the Cardinals, including $30 million in guaranteed money. So he won't be able to whine and complain about how unappreciated he is.

At just 24 years of age, Fitzgerald has already logged two Top 5 fantasy seasons. That makes him one of just 6 active players in the league with more than one trip to the Top 5 (Moss, Owens, and Harrison 7 times; Galloway and Wayne twice). (Eric Moulds accomplished this feat twice, but at this point I am not sure if he's on a roster). From this point on, he's a serious contender to post Top 5 numbers each and every season.

We could go on and on touting his accolades:

• He and Jerry Rice are the only two receivers to post two or more seasons with 100 receptions, 1,400 receiving yards, and 10 receiving touchdowns (Rice did it three times).
• He's scored the second most fantasy points through age 24 with 664 (Moss had 868).
• He also ranks 7th for most fantasy points scored through four seasons (ranking 4th since the league merger).
• Since entering the league, he ranks 7th in receptions, 5th in receiving yards, 6th in receiving TD, and 6th in fantasy points scored.

For comparison's sake, here's how Fitz did compared to other top receivers in the past four seasons:

Top 25 Wide Receivers (2004 - 2007)

So what's not to like? The guy's a stud, game over, go home. He's both an established player and rising star at the same time. Even with all that love, there is one potential area for concern. Fitzgerald has been LETHAL when teamed with Kurt Warner at QB. With anyone else, he's been solid, but nowhere near as elite.

For the chart reading impaired, Fitzgerald has produced at the level of the #2 fantasy WR when playing with Kurt Warner. With anyone else, he's produced as the #20 fantasy WR. He scored 10 or more fantasy points in 16 of 27 games with Warner (nearly 60%), compared to 4 of 11 (36%) with Leinart.

So what does this mean and should people be overly concerned that Fitzgerald will bust? What it means is that Leinart has not been very good and the other options were equally disappointing. With Leinart slated to resume the role of starting QB, there is a chance that Fitzgerald's numbers will suffer. However, Leinart will be under close scrutiny and either get it together and stay as the starter or be underwhelming and benched for the more proven Warner. The current coaching staff did not draft Warner, so they may be more apt to jump ship to Warner and quicker to do so than the prior administration.

The only other possible knock on Fitzgerald is his ADP. He's going as one of the Top 5 receivers off the board, so if he stumbles at all he won't represent a good return on investment. With Anquan Boldin ranking just two spots lower on the PPG list over the past four seasons, Boldin might present more value with his ADP currently as WR15.

Positives

• Mad skills. Off the hook, off the chart. The sky's the limit. And if Edgerrin James were to get hurt for an extended stretch, I shudder to think what Fitzgerald's numbers might be if the team morphs into more of a passing team
• At 25 years old, he has yet to enter his prime and is still learning and developing. Could he really catch more than 100 passes?
• The verdict is still out on whether having Boldin in the lineup helps or hinders Fitzgerald's numbers. He's averaged 11.24 fantasy ppg with Boldin absent (a smidge better than normal)

Negatives

• One has to wonder why and when the coaching staff dumped the run-centric offensive philosophy last year that they were touting all off-season in favor of the blitzkrieg Air Coryell passing approach. The original pound-the-ball-on-the-ground concept may at some point rear its ugly head again
• It remains to be seen if Fitzgerald can be as successful with anyone other than Warner at QB. It may be much ado about nothing, but it is something to monitor
• Other than some unknown skeletons in Fitzgerald's closet, there really is not a whole lot negative to say about him. Maybe he leaves dirty clothes on the floor, once parked in a handicapped spot, littered, often three putts, or kicked a dog, but in football relevant areas he doesn't have many deficiencies

Final Thoughts

One has to look long and hard to find reasons not to like Fitzgerald. I suppose in writing this Spotlight I could find fault that it takes longer to type Fitzgerald than Moss, Wayne, or Smith, but that's probably just picking nits.

Based on the fact that it's not easy to keep posting 100-1400-10 seasons and given the potential learning curve for Matt Leinart to start producing better numbers, I suspect Fitzgerald may see a slight drop off this year. That probably wouldn't stop me from drafting him, as there are likely as many scenarios where he could post as good or better numbers than last season as there are areas for mild concern.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

The Man with the Plan:
You want to say that he's a stud. That he's a lock for being one of the top 3-5 receivers in fantasy. And then you remember that Matt Leinart is the quarterback. I can't imagine that he has that long of a leash this season with the Cardinals considering themselves contenders in the NFC. Either Leinart will finally play well or they'll bring in Warner to clean up after him. Then again there's the worst-case scenario in that Matt Leinart plays just well enough to win games but not well enough to utilize Larry Fitzgerald in the best way possible.

I shouldn't feel this way about Larry Fitzgerald. He's one of the best wide receivers in the game and he isn't even 25 years old yet. As long as he has the question mark at quarterback you never feel quite safe that he's going to put up great numbers.

Winning IS Everything:
1. I think Arizona would like to run, but will not have great success at it.
2. I see Boldin as the clear 2nd fiddle in the passing game this year.
3. I think Arizona plays from behind a lot this year.
4. I think Fitz just takes it to a new level this year, talent and maturity wise.

Those are the reason I see Fitz the way I do. I would project Boldin for about 70-80 rec, about 1000 yards and 5-6 TD.

bagarner:
Fitzgerald is a safe bet for 100 receptions, 1400 yards, and 10 TDs. So that makes it real easy to pencil him in as your #5 WR, just as footballguys has. But the idea of Fantasy Football is to find the right value spots so that you can pass on Randy Moss at the 10th spot and pick up someone who may match his totals at the 20th spot. In order for Larry Fitzgerald to do this, he needs more touchdowns. So let's investigate touchdowns for Larry Fitzgerald.

We know he has a tremendous work ethic, and he is an ideal red-zone target. It seems that it is his lack of blinding speed and spectacular open field ability after the catch that have prevented him from getting the huge touchdown totals of which Randy Moss, Braylon Edwards, and Terrell Owens are capable. While he may be getting plenty of red-zone TDs, he is not the threat to score at any moment. Last year he had only one touchdown of more than 30 yards. Randy Moss had seven. In fact, Fitzgerald had only four total receptions of more than 30 yards, which is not at all an anomaly considering he has had exactly four such receptions of 30+ yards every year he has played. That's not an awful stat--it's more than Chad Johnson, Brandon Marshall. and Roddy White each had last year, to name a few. But the elite receivers normally have over ten such receptions in a year. Fitzgerald does not have elite speed, but does have height, great jump-ball ability, superb hands, and a knack for scoring. Arizona must increase its consistency in moving the ball down the field, in order to have more red-zone opportunities, which it did in the second half of the season. This is evident by the Cardinals averaging more than 30 points a game during the final 8 games, a stretch in which Fitzgerald dominated.

The Jacket:
Not nearly as high on him as a player as some are, but obviously he's going to produce as a fantasy stud in that offense. Still, though, my expectations are lower than many here. His career has been up and down each year, and I'm leaning more towards a down year (although certainly not as low as 2006 or his rookie year). One area I really disagree is that I don't see 15+ TDs like some; he's just not that dominant a receiver from 30 yards and in, and he doesn't stretch the field enough to be catching lots of bombs. I'm not convinced he'll get a TD every other game, as I predict, but I can't deny the talent.

Larry Fitzgerald Projections