All Spotlights • Brett Favre Player Page • NYJ Projections • QB Projections • QB Rankings • NYJ Team Report

Spotlight - QB Brett Favre, New York Jets

Posted on 8/8, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jason Wood's Thoughts

Jet Favre...Broadway Brett...Gang GreenBay

Yes, Brett Favre isn't going to end his career as a Packer, after all. Brett Favre was traded to New York for a conditional pick that will be a 2nd rounder if he plays 70% of the snaps and the Jets make the playoffs. If he were to lead them to the Super Bowl, Green Bay would land a 1st rounder. But let's not put the cart before the horse.

How is the league's all-time passer going to adjust to new surroundings? And is three weeks of camp and preseason game action enough to learn an entirely new offensive scheme, as well as build chemistry with his new teammates? Probably not, which is why Favre's projections should be taken with caution.

Here is what we know...

You don't have to worry about the impact of Giants Stadium. A number of people on our message boards have expressed some concern about Favre's ability to adjust to the erratic wind conditions Giants Stadium is known for. While that's a logical concern (not many NY-based QBs have been consistent fantasy studs), it looks like it's not something we should be overly concerned with based on Favre's historical appearances in Giants Stadium as a visitor.

Just for fun, here is what a 16-game season would look like if we took Favre's career averages at Giants stadium and projected them over a year's worth of games:

• 346 completions
• 570 attempts
• 60.7% rate
• 4,221 yards
• 7.4 yards per attempt
• 26 TD passes
• 16 INTs

Again, don't take this as any kind of predictive measure of how his 2008 season will turn out. But do recognize that he'll be able to put up numbers in his new home digs, provided he adjusts to the new offense.

So how long will it take for him to adjust?

That's impossible to say until we see it unfold. But an educated guess is, not long. When someone of Brett Favre's pedigree joins your team, any coach worth their weight makes sure to build the offense around his strengths. While the Jets verbiage is different from what Favre is used to, many of the guiding principles are the same. Favre isn't unfamiliar to change. He's played for Mike Holmgren, Ray Rhodes, Mike Sherman and Mike McCarthy. He's had innumerable QB coaches and offensive coordinators. He's had myriad receivers come through the GB system over the years. He's played with great defenses, he's played with poor ones. He's had excellent RB support, and he's had almost no running game at times. At the end of the day, Favre is used to adjusting.

How does the Jets supporting cast match up against the Packers?

Another excellent question, but one up for much debate. Laveranues Coles is an accomplished WR1, and much like Donald Driver, has never been considered a truly elite receiver but yet produces year in, year out. Jerricho Cotchery is a younger receiver with the ability to gain YAC, not dissimilar to Greg Jennings. It's when we get into the Jets backup receivers that it's hard to argue the Jets have more to offer than Green Bay. Brad Smith, Chansi Stuckey and David Clowney probably aren't going to make Favre forget about Ruvell Martin, James Jones and Jordy Nelson.

At TE, the Packers had a good but not great TE in Donald Lee. Based on what we've seen of rookie TE Dustin Keller, and what we already know about Chris Baker; I would say the Jets TEs are collectively better than the Packers. Let's not forget about Bubba Franks. Franks signed with the Jets after years and years as one of Favre's favorite red zone targets.

The offensive line is the biggest question mark. The Packers offensive line only allowed 19 sacks a year ago and had above average starters at every position. The Jets offensive line, on the other hand, couldn't keep its QBs upright. Last year the Jets allowed 53 sacks. Favre has NEVER had that kind of pressure on him, and at 39 years old I can't imagine he would handle that kind of pressure well.

Is Brett going to try to do too much?

Therein lies my biggest fear. Had Favre returned to Green Bay, I would've confidently ranked him a top-10 fantasy QB because of the consistency of the situation. Favre returned to MVP form last year not because his team was more talented, but because he finally trusted his teammates. When Favre trusts his teammates to make plays, he doesn't force throws and, in turn, his high yardage and TD output isn't offset by a ton of turnovers. Could he throw 29 interceptions as he did in 2005? I doubt it. But are 20+ interceptions out of the question? I would say absolutely not, particularly if he lets the pressure of winning games early get to him.

Positives

• Favre is the league's all-time leader in completions, attempts, yards, TDs and wins
• The Jets offense is chock full of quality options, from starting WRs Jerricho Cotchery and Laveranues Coles to RB Leon Washington to TEs Chris Baker and Dustin Keller
• Favre should have a chip on his shoulder after an unceremonious (and shocking) parting of the ways with Green Bay

Negatives

• Favre has a tendency to turn the ball over, particularly when he tries too hard or doesn't trust his teammates
• The Jets offensive line was ineffective last year, if Alan Faneca isn't enough to right the ship, Brett could face more pass pressure than he's used to
• The Jets run an entirely different offensive system, this will be the first time Favre isn't running a traditional West Coast offense derivative

Final Thoughts

Brett Favre is the consummate professional. While it's surprising to see him in Gang Green, it's not a bad place for him to land. The Jets have plenty of receiving options and Favre should be able to spread the ball around to his receivers, backs and tight ends just as he was used to in Green Bay. It will be a circus in New York and it's unclear how Favre will adjust to that, but you can be sure he'll play all 16 games and, in turn, have solid numbers when push comes to shove. Probably the biggest worry is his propensity to turn the ball over when he tries to do too much on his own. It's hard to imagine Favre won't try too hard this year on a new team in a new city; particularly because he hasn't been able to build a rapport with his teammates. Expect Favre's numbers to be decent, but not good enough to warrant a spot in your lineup every week.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

Warhogs:
Favre had a great year last year but for the few seasons before that he was more of a QB in that 10-15 range. He now has to learn a new offense in short order and develop chemistry with his new receivers. I think right now it would be safest to project his numbers not based on last season but what he had done for the few seasons before that.

Gatorman:
I agree. It's not just playbook, he now has 3 weeks to get comfortable with guys he has never played with, even in probowls. Check downs and audibles will be nil for the most part, so it will probably be a half a season before Favre bears fruit as a viable starter. Also, Coles and COtchery are not big YAC guys if I remember correctly.

I'd put Favre right behind Garrard. He is a top QB2 at this point who could pay real dividends in the playoffs (fantasy, not NFL)

Holy Schneikes:
I just don't expect much except LOTS of INTs, and a very slow start. He might be viable toward the end of the season, but I would DEFINITELY not draft him now. Trade for him later if you are dying for a 38 year old QB in a different system than the one he's played in for 18 years, who probably didn't keep himself in shape this off-season and has three or four weeks to adjust to about a billion changes from what he's used to.

Mordraken:
I think he'll do OK as a JET (better than Pennington), but as a #2 fantasy QB. I think he'll do better as the year progresses, but will (esp. at the start) have a higher % of int: TD than normal for him (which isn't very good to start with). Add onto that that the JETS have a worse defense than GB did last year, and he may be allowed to throw more. I do like his weapons in NY better than in GB as well.

Overall, he's a solid backup fantasy QB who will be even better as the year progresses (more of the playbook, better at working with the WRs, etc).

3200 yards, 27 TDs, 22 Ints

FWIW - Favre has been my league's "bye-week QB" over the past few years. He was always available after the auction, people would pick him up for a bye-week fill-in or an injury replacement, and drop him when they needed a roster spot, leaving him available for the next team to pick him up. I was fortunate that my QB had an early bye week last year and added Favre, and held onto him all year.

I don't think anyone would want to pick Favre as their starter, but he'll be a top backup because he still has the potential to throw for 4500 yards and 35 TDs with the JETS (esp. if their defense doesn't do well).

Chase Stuart, FBG Staff:
Favre will go as far as the Jets offensive line goes. As far as potential, the OL looks very good. Faneca is obviously very good, and Mangold is a reliable and up and coming center. Ferguson has added 15-20 pounds of pure muscle, and looks like a totally different player. If he can live up to his potential, along with the addition of Woody, and the Jets offensive line could be very good. If they all come together, then Favre should have another big year. That is a few 'ifs', though.

Brett Favre Projections