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Spotlight - RB Justin Fargas, Oakland Raiders

Posted on 6/27, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jeff Haseley's Thoughts

One of the more puzzling questions entering the 2008 season is - How are the Oakland Raiders going to manage their rushing offense with several options available to run the ball? There's the super-hyped rookie and fourth overall pick Darren McFadden, sixth year pro and last year's leading rusher for the team, Justin Fargas, plus the very capable LaMont Jordan and former Louisville sensation, Michael Bush. The chances that Oakland will have all four backs on the roster for week one seems to be a bit high. As of right now, all four RBs are healthy and under contract. Offensive Coordinator Greg Knapp is quoted as saying the running game needs three quality players to make it through a season. The early favorites to carry the majority of the load is a combination of Darren McFadden and Justin Fargas.

Which back will see more carries, McFadden or Fargas? This is a question not yet known, but one would figure the Raiders will go with the RB that produces more in pre-season and the first few games of the regular season. Many suggest that player will be McFadden. Let's face it, McFadden is a pure athlete who not only is one of the faster players in the entire league, but he can catch and pass if called upon. He's the whole package. The only thing that Justin Fargas has on McFadden in a tale of tape is experience and maybe being a better runner inside the tackles.

Even if McFadden handles the lion's share of the team's carries, can Justin Fargas still produce good value? That's a good question, because we've really only recently begun to see what Justin Fargas can do as a RB in the league. Earlier in his career he was plagued by injuries, but the last two years, especially 2007, he has shown that he can be a productive RB for the Raiders.

• In 14 games, Fargas rushed for 50 yards or more ten times
• Four 100-yard rushing games, including three games of 139+ yards rushing
• Six games of 10 FP or more and five of them were over 15 FP
• Seven games of 22+ carries or more in 2007 proves strength and endurance
• Four games of three receptions or more

Was Justin Fargas' breakout 2007 season a flash in the pan?

To answer that question, let's dig deeper. Did you know? The Raiders were only team in 2007 to have three different RBs rush for 100 yards or more in a game twice? The three RBs who accomplished the feat are LaMont Jordan, Justin Fargas and Dominick Rhodes, who is now back with Indianapolis. Where did this surprising running game come from? Raiders OC Greg Knapp is known for his quality of work improving running games. He was the mastermind behind the 2001-2003 49ers where they finished in the top five in rushing offense each year. He then became the OC for the Falcons from 2004-2006. Each of those three years the Falcons led the NFL in rushing. Last year with the Raiders, Gregg Knapp along with running backs coach Tom Rathman, improved the Raiders rushing offense from 29th in 2006 to 6th in 2007.

Is there a rushing system taking shape in Oakland? You better believe it. The NFL and fans alike are starting to realize how effective Greg Knapp can be with a running game that has some promise. That's exactly what the Raiders have and everyone involved should benefit to some extent.

What to expect from Fargas? Last year Raiders RBs carried the ball 419 times, with Fargas leading the way with 222 carries (53%). He will likely not have that many carries in 2008. It is safe to suggest that he will account for at least 30% of the carries though, which would be approximately 125-130 carries. At 4.5 (last year's YPC), per rush that equals 565 yards. Add another 100-120 yards receiving, plus two total TDs and that's 670 total yards with 2 TDs or 79 fantasy points. That would put Fargas at the border of being a top 50 RB. That of course is his floor. His ceiling could be anything higher, depending on the level of play and the health of Darren McFadden. Signs point to Fargas being a top 50 back at worst.

Positives

• Fargas is part of an up and coming potent rushing offense that has all the characteristics of improving on it's 6th ranked status from 2007. He is currently under contract with the Raiders until the end of 2010. Chances are, he's not going anywhere
• Fargas is a proven workhorse who can handle 20+ carries a game if called upon. We can't say that yet about Darren McFadden
• If McFadden has a weakness it's running between the tackles and breaking tackles. This is something Fargas has shown he can handle in the pro game

Negatives

• The biggest negative is that his main competition, Darren McFadden, is one of the more hyped rookie RBs to enter the league in the last few years, not named Adrian Peterson. That obstacle should drastically lower his carries per game and relegate him to fantasy RB4 or possibly un-startable status
• Fargas was not a big TD producer when he did excel last season. He had a total of four TDs and averaged one TD every 252 yards rushing. Not horrible, but not great either. In a platoon, he would see more carries if he had a nose for the end zone. Unfortunately for Fargas, he did not show that last year
• The Raiders are loaded with talent at the RB position. Not only does he have McFadden as an obstacle, but he also has LaMont Jordan and Michael Bush who are both also looking for some share of the load

Final Thoughts

Justin Fargas is almost assuredly going to see fewer than 222 carries in 2008. As a result, his value will likely decrease from his #23 ranking last year. Exactly how far down the line it will drop is dependent on how good rookie Darren McFadden will be as a pro. The Raiders did not draft McFadden as the fourth overall pick in the 2008 NFL Draft to platoon him. The RB role will have to be earned, but based on McFadden's past, he should be able to outproduce Fargas and/or any other back on the Raiders roster. Last year the #2 RB on the team accounted for 34% of the load. If Fargas can secure that, he's looking at a top 40-50 season, perhaps higher if he can find the end zone more often. Fargas is definitely a must have handcuff to McFadden, but he likely will not be anything more than a RB4 for your team. He's a good back to grab later (if the McFadden owner falls asleep). He is currently the 91st player and 37th RB being selected in 12-team redraft leagues. His expected value is right around 37th, so there is no glaring oversight between his ADP and his projected ranking. If anything, that ranking may be too high for where he'll likely finish.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

LawFitz:
The Raiders will be a run heavy team and Fargas is going to get the lion's share of carries but very few receptions. Add to that a very real threat of a goal line vulture with 240 lb Michael Bush lurking and looking for a role.

DawnBTVS:
I can see the Raiders leaning on the run and using Fargas/McFadden much like the Cowboys used JJ/Barber as a 1A and 1B tandem.

rzrback77:
Justin Fargas is entering his sixth season. Prior to last year, he had accumulated 258 carries in four seasons for just over 1,000 yards and just under 4.0 ypc and caught 27 passes for 170 yards and 2 TDs. Last year he got a chance and provided good production for the Raiders, averaging 4.5 ypc on 222 carries for 1,009 yards and 4 total TDs. I think that says a lot about the Raiders OL work for the running game because there was very little to fear in the passing game.

I think that the Raiders overall offense will be much improved, but Fargas will lose a lot of his carries to Darren McFadden. I see them both playing early on and McFadden gaining more momentum as the season progresses.

Tanner9919:
Al Davis will make sure that Kiffin runs McFadden into the ground, from Day 1. Fargas put together a surprisingly good 2007 season,but there is no way the Raiders drafted McFadden at #4, just to keep him in a RBBC.. This is McFadden's job, plain and simple.

Team Legacy:
Don't sleep on Justin Fargas! Lane Kiffin in his first year as head coach of the Oakland Raiders, discovered something. Justin Fargas fits his offense PERFECTLY. So why then do they draft McFadden? Chalk it up to yet another classic Al Davis move. Fargas appears to be entering 2008 as a casualty of war, but not so fast. With McFadden in the fold and Michael Bush on short yardage, where does Fargas fit in?

I see Fargas as THE starting Running Back on Day one with McFadden coming in to spell and showcase his talents. Look for the passing game to struggle, so Kiffin MUST committ to a run first philosophy. Another competition for carries is Michael Bush, who will also get the nod on tough yards and some third down and goal line situations but in the end, Justin Fargas should continue to have a few very nice games, and rack up 15-18 carry days when healthy, with an above average YPC (4.5) due to his elusiveness, but reduced TDs due to competition. 180 carries, 810 yards, 2 Touchdowns - 15 receptions 125 yards - Fargas makes for a great draft pick in best ball lineup leagues as it will be hard to predict which games he'll do well in.

Justin Fargas Projections