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Spotlight - WR Lee Evans, Buffalo Bills

Posted on 6/25, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jeff Haseley's Thoughts

Lee Evans is currently the 21st WR being selected in redraft leagues heading into the 2008 season. His average draft position is 58th, or approximately the middle of the fourth round of a 12-team draft. This draft location suggests people are looking at him as a WR2 for their fantasy rosters. Is that a fair assessment of Evans' potential and ability to succeed this season? In other words, what is the likelihood of Lee Evans performing above his current average draft position (ADP)? In order to answer that question let's dissect his numbers from previous seasons, examine the current situation in Buffalo and try to gauge his role in the offense for 2008.

Facts about Lee Evans

• Evans has 20 receiving TDs for the Bills since 2005. The closest WR teammate in that category has only 4 receiving TDs (a three way tie between Josh Reed, Eric Moulds and Roscoe Parrish). Evans has 55% of all of Buffalo's TD receptions by a WR since 2005
• Highest end of season fantasy ranking = 7th (2006)
• Average end of season fantasy ranking = 23rd (four years in the league)
• Average TDs scored per season = 7.25. Total receiving TDs since 2004 = 29, which is 10th best among all WRs in the NFL since 2004

Perhaps the two biggest determining factors behind Lee Evans' predicted success in 2008 is the ability and execution of his QB as well as the play calling by his new offensive coaching staff.

The projected starting QB for the Bills this season is second year pro from Stanford, Trent Edwards. Edwards is an adequately sized NFL QB at 6-foot-4, 220 pounds. He has shown the ability to be a good game manager on the field, who most likely will continue to improve with experience. Edwards has the intellect to learn from his mistakes and has the type of QB ambition that coaches love. This off season, Edwards added 10 pounds of lean muscle to his frame and he gained a new offensive coordinator, Turk Schonert. Schonert and Edwards should work well together. Not only is Schonert a former QB coach, but like Edwards, he also played his college ball at Stanford. According to Schonert, the game plan for 2008 is to fix the problems with the offense, cater to his players' abilities, and revamp the passing game, a statement that was well received by fans, players, and coaches alike. This could very well lead to greener pastures in the near future for Lee Evans.

Why was 2007 such a dismal season for Lee Evans and the Bills passing game? The Bills had the third worst passing game in the league last year (164.6 passing yards per game). They were also tied for second worst in TD passes with 12. What was the main reason behind this disappointment? Perhaps we should look no further than the offensive coordinator that Turk Schonert replaced - Steve Fairchild. Fairchild was a disciple of the Mike Martz offensive system, however Fairchild's version was very much one dimensional. Defenses keyed on what the Bills were doing and they took away some of the plays that were designed specifically for Evans. Said Trent Edwards, "A lot of our primary routes involved deeper calls last year, but defenses would throw a Cover 2 and take away Lee Evans." Fairchild also did not allow his QBs to audible at the line of scrimmage. His play calling became so predictable, that in a game versus the Eagles at the end of the season, CBS announcers were able to successfully predict some of the plays the Bills were going to run on various possessions.

Positives

• First and foremost, the most important and glaringly obvious observation is that Lee Evans is absolutely the #1 receiving option for the Bills. The addition of rookie WR and second round pick, James Hardy will help keep opposing defenses honest. The Bills are also recognizing the ability of seventh round pick WR out of Kentucky, Steve Johnson. An increase in talent from the WR position will help Evans in his pursuit for reaching top 10 status once again
• Evans has his sights set on a long term contract. The 2008 season is his last under his current contract with the Bills. Whether he wants to remain with the Bills after this year or if he wants to test the waters outside of western NY, Evans will surely be gunning for recognition across the NFL
• All signs point to a better year statistically in 2008 compared to 2007 - QB Trent Edwards has another year of experience under his belt, plus he has demonstrated his desire to improve his game in the off season, both physically and mentally. The Bills have moved on from their conservative play calling ways by hiring new OC, Turk Schonert, who vows to improve the passing game

Negatives

• Lee Evans has only one top 10 finish (ranked #7 in 2006) in his four year career. His average fantasy points per year is 139, which is equal to an end of season average ranking between 20 and 21. He has only been ranked higher than WR21 once in his career. This suggests that Evans will be hard-pressed to equal that WR21 ranking, thus lowering his value based on where he is currently being drafted. The more he slides on draft boards, the better his value
• There is no guarantee that the Bills will improve on offense, only speculation. It was speculated the Randy Moss would improve the Oakland Raiders passing game - look what happened there
• It all comes down to fantasy points - In his last three years, Evans has failed to reach 10.0 fantasy points or more in 33 out of 48 games. That's 68% of the time. Keep that in mind when it comes time to select a WR2 in your draft

Final Thoughts

Last year was a down year for Lee Evans, however he still managed to dominate the WR position for the Bills . If Trent Edwards progresses, as expected and new OC Turk Schonert is able to improve on the success of the offensive play calling, then we could see a dramatic improvement in Evans in 2008. One thing is for sure - Evans will be the main offensive focal point once again for the Bills in 2008. The production from Evans will be directly related to the ability and execution of the Bills passing game. If the Bills passing game continues to be abysmal, Evans will still likely reach top 30 status. If the passing game improves, he is looking at a top 20 ranking. If it improves greatly, he could very easily be a top 10 WR once again.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

a_troll00:
There's more to his numbers than meets the eye.

2004 - 48-843-9 pretty darn good for a rookie WR

2005 - This is an interesting year. There is a QB battle going on in Buffalo between Holcomb and Lossman. When Holcomb was playing, Eric Moulds was his favorite receiver and he got the big numbers. When Lossman was playing, Lee Evans was his favorite receiver and Evans got the numbers. There was no middle ground here. Holcomb threw to Moulds, Lossman threw to Evans.

48-743-7

2006 - Moulds is out of town along with Harbaugh. Lossman is the QB alongside his favorite WR Lee Evans. Lee Evans blows up.

82-1292-8

2007 - Lossman stinks up the joint and doesn't/can't get the ball to Evans. In comes the rookie QB Edwards. Evans' problems this season are much more QB related IMO.

55-849-5

2008 - Will Edwards know to get the ball to his best playmaker? Will he be able to get him the ball?

Jon_Moore:
Talent wise, he's elite. Quarterback wise, he's terrible. James Hardy is going to give opposing defenses something else to think about in the passing game, and God knows defenses will be focused on Lynch.

The Bills ranked 29th in passing last season, so they can only go up. Evans is too much of a play maker to be held down. The team has to look to get him the ball if they want to be successful. As a rookie, Edwards was bound to struggle, coming into his 2nd year, with time to learn the offense, he should improve considerably, meaning alot easier time for Evans.

rzrback77:
One thing that I noticed in a quick review of Lee Evans' game logs is that he is a notoriously slow starter. That is not a good recipe for success in Buffalo, where it becomes much more difficult to throw the ball when the bitter winter weather kicks in. Add in the lack of arm strength in Edwards and it just doesn't add up for Evans to have a superb year. I'll give him just about the same as last year. Edwards may improve just a little, but the rookie WR Hardy takes away some red zone opportunities.

Coach Pantusso:
Granted, the sample is small with Edwards, but Evans numbers suffered with Edwards in the game compared to Losman (and this is NOT an effort to advocate for Losman). Losman threw to Evans a higher percentage of the time (29% vs 24%) for a much higher completion percentage (54% vs 46%) compared to Edwards. Yes, there is a new OC, but he has never called plays at any level, so there is no reason to expect a new approach this season compared to last (although one can certainly hope), a conservative, run first philosophy even when trailing. Some blame this on Fairchild...but, until proven otherwise, I choose to blame the offensive philosophy on Jauron, and last I read, he was still the HC.

Evans has tier 1 talent, but tier 3 opportunity. If his ADP were to fall to WR25-30, I would consider grabbing him again...but there are better "sure-thing" options than Evans at WR19-20 (PIT WRs, CJ, Driver).

Lee Evans Projections