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Spotlight - QB Trent Edwards, Buffalo Bills

Posted on 6/11, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Chris Smith's Thoughts

Last season as a rookie, Trent Edwards played in ten games and earned valuable experience that could pay dividends in future campaigns. He appears to have a stranglehold on the starting quarterback position in Buffalo and has the potential to become a very good NFL quarterback in time.

Does beginning the season as a starter give Edwards decent fantasy value in 2008?

Any starting quarterback is capable of putting up respectable passing numbers but relying on Edwards as anything other than an emergency role in fantasy football will be a mistake this season. He really struggled to get the ball down the field in 2007, completing just 6.1 YPA on the season. He also only managed a meager 7 touchdowns in 269 passing attempts or 1 every 38.4 throws. A bigger concern than the final touchdown numbers however is that he actually threw 4 of those touchdowns in the game against the Dolphins on only 23 attempts. That translates into just 3 touchdowns in his other 246 passing attempts. That just isn't getting the job done on any level. Also he failed to eclipse 176 passing yards in all but two games and averaged just 163 passing yards per game.

Alright, he struggled as a rookie. Is there anything to be optimistic about this season?

While his fantasy outlook is bleak this season there are a few things to be excited about. Edwards managed games well last season and only tossed 8 interceptions, showing an ability to not force the ball into coverage. He has nice agility for a 6'4 quarterback and moves around the pocket well. He appears to have a good head on his shoulders and has enough physical ability to become a dependable quarterback for the Bills in 2008. Without question, the Bills organization appears comfortable enough with him leading the offense that they handed the keys to him early on last season, benching former starter J.P. Losman who had similar potential.

The Bills are not loaded with offensive talent but there are signs that this could develop into a good offense. WR Lee Evans is capable of putting up top-ten fantasy numbers and the Bills also scooped up huge receiver James Hardy from Indiana in this year's draft and he has a rosy future ahead of him. He likely won't slot in as a starter this season though as it will take him time to become an impact player. Finally at RB, Marshawn Lynch has proven that he can carry the load for the club. He will take some pressure away from Edwards and keep defenses from coming after the quarterback in a big way.

Positives

• Has a nice blend of size, quickness and athleticism
• Is a cerebral quarterback that makes smart decisions on the field
• Should continue to improve with playing time

Negatives

• He failed to toss a touchdown in seven of ten starts last season
• He is still learning his craft on the fly
• Teams figured him out down the stretch (43.8% completion percentage)

Final Thoughts

Edwards has enough potential to slot in as a long-term solution at quarterback in Buffalo. He is intelligent, has nice size, good quickness and appears to have enough intangibles to elevate his play in future seasons. However this spotlight is about the upcoming NFL season and I don't believe he can put up decent enough stats to make him anything greater than an afterthought in fantasy leagues. He may be serviceable in desperation but there are many other options to choose from at quarterback with more upside. He'll likely slot in under 3,000 yards and around 15 touchdowns.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

Ministry of Pain:
In 7 of his 10 games in action last season he threw for ZERO TDS...I cannot emphasize enough how bad of a draft selection he is going to make for a lot of owners. Can he improve? Of course but he had talent at WR last year in Lee Evans. Dick Jauron is a lousy HC for passing games and I don't think Edwards will make it out of the bottom 10.

Chase Stuart, FBG Staff:
In 6 pt TD leagues, I don't see much value at all in Edwards. He's going to have a good chunk of 0 TD games.

I think Buffalo's going to be a bit better this year, although the record may not show it. Even though this team was a possible 9 win team (Den game, Dal game) they got outscored by over 100 points. Some of it is the NE factor (actually, 77 points of it is the NE factor) but it says something about your team when you're not even in the same hemisphere as someone in your division.

An improved Bills team should help Edwards, but he was such a nonfactor last year, I can't see wanting him among my top 25 QBs.

minchkin:
Losman is on the bench because the coaching staff believes that Edwards play gives the team the best chance to win in the NFL; I don't think the Bills organization is all that concerned with FF numbers.

Hopefully Jauron realizes that he is not going to win a lot of games if he doesn't put up points. The Bills can't afford to be one dimentional on offense, no team can, not even Minnesota with the two backs it has. Look at Jacksonville in the playoffs against the Pats last year. Garrard was looking down field quite a bit and they have a great one-two punch in MJD and FT. The Bills are going to have to try and open it up more whether they like it or not.

Time will tell on Edwards. We know he can hit the dump off pass and be conservative with the ball. He will have to do more for the Bills to win.

Coach Pantusso:
He has a solid (though not great) running game and a coach that is committed to keeping the pressure off of the QB (literally and figuratively) by running the football. There are good targets for him to throw to as well. The problem lies in his willingness and ability to utilize those players to their strengths...he did not do it last season, and he needs to prove himself capable prior to getting very high projections from me.

Trent Edwards Projections