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Spotlight - WR Braylon Edwards, Cleveland Browns

Posted on 6/20, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jeff Tefertiller's Thoughts

Braylon Edwards had a breakout season in 2007. He benefited from the emergence of strong-armed Derek Anderson as the starting quarterback for the Browns. The third year pro caught 80 of his 153 pass targets for 1,289 yards and 16 scoring grabs. This was good for a WR3 finish in the fantasy rankings. The 16 touchdowns in a season has only been attained 15 other times in NFL history. The reception and yardage totals were very close to his first two years combined. Braylon finally lived up to expectations. The stellar 2007 season earned Braylon Edwards an invitation to the Pro Bowl.

Edwards enjoyed a monster senior year at Michigan and was drafted with the third overall pick of the 2005 NFL Draft. During his senior year as a Wolverine, Edwards caught 97 balls for 1,330 yards and 15 touchdowns in just 12 games. He was a dominant collegiate player. As a junior, the Detroit native hauled in 85 passes for 1,138 yards and 14 scores. He had a great career at Michigan and many assumed he would have a promising future in the NFL.

One key to the great season of Braylon was the emergence of QB Derek Anderson. His big arm and confidence in the young wideout led to many key receptions for the former Wolverine. Anderson entered the first game of the year in the loss to Pittsburgh. He went on to start the rest of the season. As no coincidence, Edwards had his worst fantasy game that first week. In week two, the first for Anderson to start in 2007, Braylon had his best game of the year with eight receptions for 146 yards and a pair of scoring catches. That game against the Cincinnati Bengals gave hope that the Anderson to Edwards connection was for real. In 2006, the pair hooked up for touchdowns in three straight games late in the season. Fantasy owners of Braylon Edwards better hope the Browns keep the former Oregon State passer under center. The coaching staff has asserted that there is no quarterback competition and the job is Anderson's to lose but it is difficult to be assured of anything once the season starts.

The 6'3", 206-pound receiver has led many to expect another great season in 2008. The Cleveland Browns brought in Stallworth to upgrade at WR2 position. The Browns still have the athletic Kellen Winslow II at tight end. These three pass catchers give Derek Anderson good targets to spread the ball around. Add in the powerful Jamal Lewis at running back and you get a well-balanced, high-octane offense. Joe Jurevicius, when healthy, will provide another solid option. The presence of Stallworth, Winslow and Jurevicius will try to keep defenses honest. Edwards suffered a hip pointed in late May and just recently resumed practicing. There should be no lasting affects of the injury.

When we look back at the 2007 season, we immediately notice the playmaking ability of Edwards. Here are some of the highlights from the Pro Bowl season:

• Caught at least five passes in half of the games.
• Had at least 60 receiving yards in 12 of 16 games (and 12 of 15 Anderson started)
• Had four games with 100+ receiving yards
• Scored a touchdown in 11 games
• Scored multiple touchdowns in four games
• Had at least 10 pass targets in six games

Some of these feats will be difficult to duplicate. Many of the touchdown grabs by Braylon were passes that Anderson threw up as jump balls. Edwards has shown the ability to go up and make the tough catch in traffic. But, touchdown totals from year to year are difficult to predict. In addition, new addition Donte Stallworth will take more of the targets than did Jurevicius at WR2. Even though he caught at least one touchdown in three of the last four games, the weather in December for the Browns' games was not conducive for big passing games. In those last four games, Edwards could not top 68 receiving yards. This was during the fantasy playoffs. And the weather in Cleveland should inhibit big plays in the passing game every year.

So far this offseason, Braylon Edwards is being drafted 18th overall and as the 4th WR. He is well respected in the Footballguys consensus rankings with a WR4 ranking. However, the rankings have some disparity on Edwards' standing with a high of WR2 (Borbely) and a low of WR10 (Tremblay). The Footballguys projections (by David Dodds) also have the former Michigan star as WR4 with 72 receptions for 1140 yards and 12 touchdowns projected.

Positives

• Established red zone target in college and NFL
• Anderson's "go to" guy in a potent offense
• Proven big play receiver with several 100+ yard and several multiple TD games

Negatives

• May lose targets to Donte Stallworth
• The touchdown total will likely decrease
• The Cleveland weather during fantasy playoffs could impact Edwards' production

Final Thoughts

Braylon Edwards should enjoy another good season but could see a slight decrease in fantasy production, especially in the touchdown column. With the 16-touchdown season such a rare achievement, an expectation of decline is reasonable. Edwards is an explosive, play-making wide receiver who should have a long career. The Browns are already talking about giving Braylon an extension, locking him up with a long-term contract. At only 25 years old, he is a cornerstone of the Cleveland Brown offense.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

jurb26:
I feel rather fortunate that I get to see Edwards play a lot because of him being in the Steelers division. This is a great WR who really matured last year. He is in a great situation in Cleveland as they have a bunch of weapons that can draw coverage away from him at times. Still, regression has to be expected after a year like he had last year.

David Yudkin, FBG Staff:
We have been debating the impact Stallworth will have in some of the other projections threads. A popular opinion was that the Browns passing stats would dip slightly but Edwards and Winslow would still "get theirs." When crunching the numbers, the other staffers felt that there was not enough offense to go around for Stallworth...does his signing have little to no impact on Edwards?

fightingillini:
Edwards has proven that he is one of the league's top WRs. Has good speed, runs good routes and is a great in the red zone. If Anderson was a more accurate passer, then Edwards could compete with Moss and Owens and Wayne for the #1 FF WR. Edwards only caught 52% of his targets, and Anderson only completed 56.5% of his passes. With Edwards a deep threat, one can clearly expect his catch ratio to be less than Anderson's completion ratio. Last year, Edwards was targeted on about 28% of CLE passes. With Stallworth coming on board, I expect Anderson to spread it around a little more, with Edwards dropping to about 135 targets. I don't expect Anderson to improve on his completion percentage.

Ministry of Pain:
Edwards has to come off his numbers at least a little from a year ago. The schedule is much tougher and defenses are going to be gunning for him...doesn't mean they will stop him but they might slow him down a touch.

The Man with the Plan:
I think he's a little overrated this season. Braylon Edwards is getting drafted in the same area as guys like TO/Wayne/Fitz. As talented as he is he's still the 4th best player among those receivers. For him to be worth the price paid in the draft he has to put up the same numbers as last season or at least close to it. I think that might be too much to ask especially when it comes to the touchdowns.

Receiving touchdowns can be very volatile from season to season. One year a guy can have double-digit touchdowns and just as easily have single-digit the next season. There are some guys that are just adept at scoring TD's (TO, Moss, Rice) but they're few and far between. Even Jerry Rice was prone to having fluctuating TD numbers. In 1987 he had 22 touchdowns in 13 games. The next season in 16 games he only had 9 touchdowns. In 1995 he had 15 touchdowns in one of the greatest fantasy seasons for a WR. The next season? 8 touchdowns. If it can happen to Rice it can happen to well just about anybody.

There's a possibility that Braylon Edwards could just be that good and put up another monster season with 1300 yards and 15 touchdowns. However with the lack of track record and shaky QB situation I'm not willing to risk a 2nd round pick or $35+ in auction money to find out.

Braylon Edwards Projections