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Spotlight - WR Donald Driver, Green Bay Packers

Posted on 7/25, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jason Wood's Thoughts

Donald Driver used to be a perfect fantasy player:

• You could set your watch to his production
• He was perennially undervalued on draft day

For a few years, I could've written the same Spotlight for Driver year in, year out. He was the WR1 on a pass happy offense with a Hall of Fame QB. He was assured of a ton of targets and, given his sure hands, would be good for at least 70-80 receptions a season. While not a prolific TD producer, he scored enough to rank solidly among the top 10-12 players at his position. Yet, because of Favre's age, the Packers struggles and the lack of a truly elite season by Driver, fantasy owners would let him fall a round or two more than they should've.

I can thank Donald Driver for a number of fantasy championships.

But a funny thing happened on the way to the 2007 season. Driver appeared to have FINALLY been given his fantasy due. He was being drafted as a top-12 player at his position and owners had woken up to his consistent productivity. So what happened?

He finished as the 30th ranked fantasy receiver...

• 122 targets
• 82 receptions
• 1,048 yards
• 12.8 yards per reception
• 2 TDs
• WR30

Let's focus on the three main reasons for Driver's fall off in productivity:

Targets -- Driver was targeted 122 times last year in 15 games, 22nd among wide receivers. With the emergence of Greg Jennings, continued improvement from James Jones, the addition of highly touted rookie Jordy Nelson, and the integration TE Donald Lee and RB Ryan Grant, the simple fact is the Packers are deeper than they've been in a long time. There's no reason to think Driver is going to see more targets, as almost everyone else in the offense is young and on the upswing. Driver was targeted an average of 150 times from 2004-2006, those days are long gone barring major injuries to his offensive teammates.

Yards per Reception -- Driver averaged better than 14 yards per reception in 2004-2006, but saw his average fall more than 10% in 2007. While lingering injuries probably played a role in that, we can't also discount age (33 years old) and the emergence of Jennings, Lee, Grant and Jones. Driver was used, and will continue to be used, as a possession receiver and that means his lower YPC is probably here to stay.

Touchdowns -- From 2004-2006, Driver averaged more than 7 TDs per season (22 over 3 years), which makes last year's 2 TDs a real head scratcher. Is the drop off in TD production indicative of a loss of skill, or more of a statistical anomaly? Working in Driver's favor is the unpredictability of TD production from year to year. There's very little difference between someone scoring 5 TDs and 9 TDs all else being equal. A tipped pass here, a check down there, an overthrow by the QB. Next thing you know your TDs drop. But 2 TDs?!?!? That's low.

Driver became only the 10th WR in NFL history to have 1,000 yards receiving but only score 2 TDs (or less). Here is a table of those receivers, with their TD output in the following season:

As you can see, the WRs bounced back in the following year but very few put up monster TD numbers. Even those who had a history of much higher TD production failed to put up huge numbers in Year N+1. So while Driver is a good bet to have more TDs in 2008, he's not a good bet to return to his prior average of 7+ TDs per season.

Positives

• Driver remains the Packers lead receiver and should be targeted north of 100 times as long as he stays healthy
• History indicates Driver will return to a more normalized level of TD production this year
• Driver has had at least 1,000 yards and 82 receptions for four consecutive seasons

Negatives

• Aaron Rodgers should be a solid replacement for Brett Favre, but there's risk there until we see him do it on the field
• With a much deeper (and younger) supporting cast, the days when Driver gets 150+ targets are long gone
• At his age, the combination of a lower yards per reception average and TD production argue that he's simply on the natural downslope of his career

Final Thoughts

Donald Driver has a lot going for him. He still enters the season as the Packers top receiver, he has great hands and his 2 TD production last year (and WR30 ranking) means a lot of fantasy owners will completely steer clear of him. On the other hand, the Packers have uncertainty at QB and the roster is chock full of other viable receiving options. Driver is no longer guaranteed to be the most targeted Packer game in, game out, and it's not entirely out of the question he could be moved to the slot as the WR3 as the season progresses. That all adds up to a player who should still catch 75-80 receptions and 1,000 yards, but that's arguably his upside. Driver's days as a WR1 who can be drafted as a WR2 are long gone. He's now a quality fantasy WR3 (or WR2 in PPR leagues) that can be had for that price. He's now "fair value" and merely becomes someone worth considering only if he fits into the construct of the rest of your roster. Draft accordingly.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

Ministry of Pain:
Driver had a bit of an off year last season posting only 2 TD...however Driver is one of those veteran WR that isn't sexy but produces good solid stats for his owners. most seasons you can count on about 80+ catches, 1,100+ yds, and about 6-8 TD. I look for him to bounce back closer to what he averages. Whether it is Aaron Rodgers or Brett Favre, Driver is a solid NFL WR and will do well as he is likely leaving GB at the ned of the season when his contract runs out. He will showcase himself so he can sign a nice contract somewhere in the off season.

H.K.:
Driver's averages for the past three seasons:

146 targets (according to PFW he is ranked fifth in the NFL among WR's based on 3 year avg.)

87 receptions
1,188 yards receiving
5 TD's

Current ADP: 26th among WR's

Losing Favre will hurt badly (obviously), however, the same coaching staff and offensive scheme focused on getting Driver the ball are still in tact.

With an inexperienced and fragile Rodgers behind center, the Packers will throw to a lot more of the shorter routes run by the Z receiver than Favre did last year. Therefore, it will help Driver get targets more similar to those he saw in 2006 (171), than he did in 2007 (122).

Driver is the unquestioned primary receiver in GB and represents exceptional value in PPR leagues this season.

Iwannabeacowboybaby!:
Donald Driver has never been a huge reception guy. He's never been a huge TD guy, never achieving double digit TDs in a single season. However, he's always had great hands and regardless of who's QBing in GB, Driver will still get his. The veteran receiver may have lost a little step and has a little more competition opposite him now, but Driver will still produce numbers that make him a solid selection in this year's draft.

perry147:
Either with his advancing age or with Greg Jennings really emerging last year Donald Driver is slipping out of the elite of fantasy WR range that he has been over the past several seasons. In seasons past savvy fantasy owners drafted Driver in later rounds and still got WR1 production. Last year Driver slipped and although he had decent yardage numbers (1048) and had 82 catches the TDs were reduced down to two. I think Driver can still have a fantasy impact but most likely is better suited as a WR3 with WR2 upside. The Favre retirement fiasco is continuing as of this time and if Favre does return for one last season (and not be a backup) I would bump the numbers up a bit.

Just Win Baby:
1. Driver was 30 in 2005, when that 3 year stretch began. He is obviously now a few years older.

2. The WRs other than Driver are better now than they were throughout this stretch.

2a. In 2005, the first year of this 3 year stretch, Javon Walker was injured in the first game of the season, meaning Green Bay was undermanned at WR all season (Chatman and Ferguson became the #2 and #3 WRs). Driver was targeted 9.1 times per game, and received 23.3% of the total targets. The next highest player was Chatman with 13.8% of the total targets.

2b. In 2006, Jennings was a rookie. He and Ruvell Martin were the only 2 WRs besides Driver to catch as many as 10 passes. Driver was targeted 10.7 times per game, and received 27.2% of the total targets. The next highest player was Jennings with 16.7% of the total targets.

2c. In 2007, Driver's targets dropped to 8.1 per game, and he received 21.1% of the targets. Still very good target numbers, but an obvious dropoff from the previous years. This was partly because of the emergence of Jennings and James Jones as quality targets. In 2005, Driver had 145 targets and the next 2 WRs combined for 143. In 2006, Driver had 171 targets and the next 2 WRs combined for 148 targets. Last year, Driver had 122 targets, and the next 2 WRs combined for 164. And now they have Jordy Nelson to add to the mix.

3. Green Bay attempted 623 passes in 2005 and 628 in 2006. But they only attempted 578 in 2007. IMO this was largely due to the improved effectiveness of the running game, which was well below average in 2005 and 2006. In the first 8 games of 2007, Green Bay attempted 308 passes, similar to the pace of the previous 2 seasons. But in the last 8 games, as Ryan Grant emerged, that dropped to 270 attempts. It wasn't about the cold - in 2005 and 2006 they attempted 326 and 316 passes, respectively in their last 8 games. This trend - lower attempts than in previous years - should continue, particularly if they do go with Rodgers.

IMO all of these things suggest that Driver will continue the downward trend that he began last year.

Donald Driver Projections