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Spotlight - RB Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville Jaguars

Posted on 7/25, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Mike Brown's Thoughts

The diminutive Maurice Jones-Drew has spent the better parts of his two seasons in the league proving doubters wrong at every turn. When it was suggested that he was nothing more than a special teams player prior to his rookie year, all he did was put up nearly 1,400 yards from scrimmage and fifteen touchdowns. When it was suggested that his rookie year was a fluke and that he'd come tumbling back to earth, he went over 1,000 yards from scrimmage and nine touchdowns in limited playing time. Now entering his third season, some people are still on the fence about his fantasy prospects. They're worried about the full-blown running back committee that seems to have formed in Jacksonville, and how much that'll hold down Jones-Drew's upside.

Over the last two seasons, Fred Taylor has seen 454 carries to 333 for Jones-Drew. Both players have had wild success running the ball, each with a YPC average over 5.0 during this timeframe. Taylor has scored ten times on the ground, while Jones-Drew has punched in 22 scores. Head coach Jack Del Rio has seamlessly integrated both players into a dynamic game plan that rotates the two runners in and out of the game, and it has served the Jaguars very well to this point.

Some people have suggested that Jones-Drew would be a top-5 fantasy running back if Taylor weren't in town, and that Taylor would be easily into the top ten if not for Jones-Drew. The truth is probably that each player complements one another so well that they actually help each other's totals. Without Taylor around to change up the pace and give him a breather, perhaps Jones-Drew would be bottled up more often. And if it weren't for the prospect of Jones-Drew bowling people over, defenders might be better equipped to bring Taylor down on some of his fourth quarter carries (where he averages 5.1 YPC).

Going into 2008, fantasy owners are torn once again on what this RBBC will do to each player's prospects. Since Jones-Drew is more of a touchdown scorer than Taylor, he is the one that fantasy owners are more concerned about. There is so much concern about it, in fact, that he's being drafted as the #13 running back on average -- this despite finishing 2007 ranked as the #13 guy. What that means, in essence, is that fantasy owners are drafting Jones-Drew as if last year was his upside. Was it? In my opinion, not even close.

Positives

• He's an absolutely outstanding talent out of the backfield, and there's very little he can't do with the ball in his hands, evidenced by his career average of 5.1 YPC
• He's an outstanding receiver, with 86 receptions through two seasons
• Jones-Drew is the goal line back in Jacksonville. He has eighteen red zone touchdowns over the last two seasons to Fred Taylor's seven

Negatives

• He's a part of a committee backfield with Fred Taylor, and Taylor has seen more carries than Jones-Drew in each of the past two seasons
• QB David Garrard showed a year ago that he can be trusted to not just manage the offense, but to lead it. If Jacksonville starts airing it out a bit more, there may not be as much to go around for the running game
• Because of the inconsistency of his touches, he can be a bit inconsistent from week to week. In his five best games of 2007, he averaged 19.9 fantasy points per game. But in his other ten contests, he averaged just 7.2 points per game

Final Thoughts

Look for this to be the year Jones-Drew finally gets the opportunity to put it all together. Yes, Fred Taylor is coming off two of the best seasons of his career. So what are the odds that he'll produce the three best seasons of his career back-to-back-to-back after the age of thirty (typically the age most backs start to wear down)? In today's NFL, one must go into a draft not with a "what have you done for me lately" mentality. We must go in with a "what are you about to do for me" mentality. Just because the carries were split up the way they were the last two years doesn't mean they will automatically remain that way this year. There are a lot of factors that go into it, not the least of which is the possibility that Jones-Drew has reached a talent level where you simply can't help but feed him the football. I'm well aware that the RBBC clearly worked very well for Jacksonville a year ago, and could do the same again this year. But even in that worst-case scenario, Jones-Drew is almost a must-draft. Here's why.

Most people feel that Taylor is on the downside of his career, even if he is still effective. That probably cannot be argued, as he is 32 years old. So in all likelihood, he's not going to get a greater share of the carries than he's gotten to this point, right? So it would also stand to reason that Jones-Drew, whose career is clearly on the upswing, is not going to see his touches decrease. Yet Jones-Drew, who finished up 2007 as the 13th best running back in terms of fantasy points, is only being drafted as the 13th running back on average in drafts so far this year. For a player who is probably still improving his game, why is he being drafted at his baseline? Do people not think he offers any upside? It'll be nearly impossible, barring significant injury, for Jones-Drew to do worse than he did in 2007 if he gets even a slight uptick in touches. This means he should go as the number thirteen running back at worst, not on average.

Jones-Drew is currently providing outstanding value in the second round. If all he does is what he did last year, he'll have lived up to his ADP. And if he capitalizes on even a little bit more playing time, he'll have exceeded his ADP. If, as I suspect, his workload is greatly increased in 2008, then you'll have yourself a bona fide stud for the cost of a second rounder. No matter the case, there's just about zero downside in drafting him.

Fred Taylor no longer carries the "Fragile Fred" title of years ago, but even the healthiest running backs tend to get banged-up when they reach this age and this many career carries. The fact that he's played in thirty of thirty-two games over the last two years suggests that he is either taking care of himself a lot better or he's been extremely fortunate to avoid injury. But no matter the case, one cannot expect a thirty-something running back to continue to avoid the trainer's room. All of which opens the door for a truly breakout season from the youngster Jones-Drew. And hey, if Taylor does remain healthy and all Jones-Drew is exactly what he did a year ago, then you've gotten what you paid for.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

Jedimaster21:
This is one of the most underrated players in fantasy ball. If Fred stays healthy for another season, MJD should be a low end #1 or VERY good #2 back. If he doesn't and starts to wear down (he is 32 years old), then MJD will vault into the top 5. He is tough, yet elusive. He is an excellent receiver. He handles all the goal line work. I think he may be one season away from his peak due to the presence of a possible Hall of Famer in the same backfield, but he is a great player to have due to his talent and upside...not to mention his high floor.

215 carries for 1050 yards
50 catches for 500 yards
15 total TDs

I really do think that MJD will start to have an expanded role this year, and his upside just makes him a great pick.

rzrback77:
Maurice Jones-Drew has been an explosive running back with very good hands. He has finished as the RB 8 as a rookie and then fell only to RB 13 in his second year. He has had 166 and 167 carries in his two seasons with 46 and 41 catches. He had 15 TDs as a rookie and followed that up with nine.

He is currently at an ADP of RB 13 and 21 overall. Everyone assumes that he has been held back by the sharing of carries with Fred Taylor and with Fred at 32, MJD is likely to get more work and therefore he's a lock to finish higher than RB 13 with those additional carries. But, can he hold up to the pounding if he gets those extra carries. Will he actually be better with them or worse?

He's solid as a bowling ball, but he is only 5'-8" and 205 and I think that he is at his best with fresh legs at the end of the game. In his rookie year, he only had over 15 carries twice. In his second year, he topped that mark four times, but did it in three of the last four games to give his backers hope that he can hold up.

David Yudkin, FBG Staff:
I guess it's time for my speech on elite backs with limited touches are teases again.

MJD is not even the starter for the Jags, yet some folks are pimping him as a Top 5 back. Taylor has actually been more productive the past two years than any other point in his career. I know people would like him to fail, get hurt, or retire, but for now we have to assume he will play a significant role in the offense. He's not hurt, he shows no signs of slowing down, and we don't hear the team suggesting that they are sendin Taylor out to pasture.

More importantly, we do not know if MJD would get the touches that Taylor would. Fantasy footballers assume that to be the case, when we have no way of knowing if his role would stay the same, increase slightly, or go through the roof. Ask Maroney owners how that worked out when they expected him to get Corey Dillion's touches and TDs last year. We also don't know if MJD saw more work that his production levels would stay the same.

There's nothing wrong a RB getting the ball 200 times for 1200-1300 yards and around 10 TDs. In fact, this might be the year where I would look at drafting him after the crazy projections many had for him last year. But buyer beware on guys with lower touches and higher TD totals, as predicting TDs is a tough business.

Jon_Moore:
He's probably the best player on his team, they'll look to get him the ball plenty. He's one of the most explosive players in the league, and has good strength too, showing the ability to find the end zone with frequency. If something should happen to Fred Taylor, Jones-Drew could be top 5, though I'm not sold something will happen to him, he is 32. He has excellent receiving skills and will be a good #1 back in ppr leagues, a great #2 in non-ppr, and even a borderline RB1. The Jaguars don't have anything great as far as receivers go, so he'll get more than his fair share of touches.

Maurice Jones-Drew Projections