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Spotlight - QB Jake Delhomme, Carolina Panthers

Posted on 7/28, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Mike Brown's Thoughts

Jake Delhomme has followed one of the more circuitous routes towards making his career in the NFL. By now, his back story is fairly well known. After toiling in relative obscurity for years, he found his way leading the Carolina Panthers as the starting quarterback in 2003. After a Super Bowl and several very productive seasons, Delhomme found himself in a most interesting position. He had come from so far behind the rest of the pack of the league's signal-callers that such a situation seemed near impossible, but he somehow became a bit overrated.

There's no question that Delhomme had a terrific year in 2004, throwing for just under 3,900 yards and 29 touchdowns to boot. It all added up to a seventh place ranking amongst NFL quarterbacks. The following season, his yards dropped by 465, his touchdowns dropped by five, and his interceptions spiked by one. In 2006, his numbers fell even further. Yet there were still many people lining up to snag him as a QB1, this despite an eleventh and twentieth place rankings in the follow-ups to his breakout 2004 campaign.

Last year, he appeared to be on his way towards justifying those lofty projections, throwing for 626 yards and eight touchdowns (versus just one interception) through the season's first three games. But he left midway through that game with an arm injury, and didn't return for the remainder of the season. Delhomme had badly injured his elbow, and the injury would eventually require season-ending surgery.

Heading into 2008, the early reports on his recovery have been nearly all positive. He has hit all of his projected targets and stands to work his way seamlessly into the starting QB gig once training camp hits. Along with the positive reports have been whispers about his ADP creeping higher and higher. It seems we fantasy owners are all becoming far more astute in our old age, and anytime there's a good report on the guy it serves to move him up a spot or two on everyone's cheatsheet. But is this a good idea? Has he come so far back from injury that he's somehow being overrated again? Or is he primed for a kind of re-breakout season this fall?

Positives

• He has looked excellent in his return from elbow surgery, and reports are that his arm strength has been very impressive
• The Panthers offense looks to be re-loaded after a very down year in 2007. Newcomers such as Jonathan Stewart, D.J. Hackett, and Muhsin Muhammad can only help Delhomme
• Delhomme was a very serviceable fantasy quarterback prior to the injury and there's little reason to think he won't return to solid passing statistics should he prove he's 100%

Negatives

• After starting 48 consecutive games over three seasons, Delhomme has suddenly become fragile. He missed three games in 2006, and thirteen more with an elbow injury in 2007. He underwent "Tommy John Surgery" on his throwing arm, certainly a significant injury for a quarterback
• Carolina has rededicated itself to being a smash-mouth rushing team. This in and of itself doesn't necessarily hurt Delhomme, but if the offensive philosophy remains to pound the ball in the red zone it could cost him some scoring chances
• Delhomme has just one top-ten season in his career, and only two in the top fourteen. Yet he's being drafted as a borderline starter (around QB14) even though he's now coming off major arm surgery. That doesn't exactly scream "value"

Final Thoughts

I think people are jumping the gun just a bit on Delhomme. Yes, he's hit all of his projected goals in his recovery from surgery. Yes, he was a solid quarterback prior to the injury. But for a guy who has finished in the top ten exactly once to be creeping back towards top ten/fantasy starter status after major arm surgery seems a bit premature.

Right now, Delhomme appears to be getting drafted right around his upside. That is the definition of bad value. He'd need to have everything break just right in order to live up to where he's being drafted. And you want to do that with a guy coming off an injury and playing for a team that had all kinds of trouble throwing the ball a year ago? Not me.

What's more, the Panthers had one potential stud running back in the house in DeAngelo Williams. So what did they do? They went out and added Jonathan Stewart AND an offensive lineman. This should suggest to everyone that they are going to be completely committed to running the football in 2008. Delhomme may very well go out and play exceptional football, never make a glaring mistake, and always hit his receivers in stride -- and he could still finish outside the top ten simply because the Panthers may not throw the ball enough to satisfy fantasy owners.

I think the smart money this season is to wait it out on Delhomme. It's not going to crush you if you don't end up with him, because we've seen what he is capable of with this offense. There's very little chance of him going off for 4,000 yards and 30+ touchdowns and finishing in the top five. More than likely, he'll finish somewhere between QB10 and QB18 or so, making him a borderline QB1 and a solid backup. The problem, as I see it, is that at present time he's not being drafted solely as if he's a fantasy backup; he's being selected as a fantasy starter in a lot of leagues all of a sudden.

Put it this way. It's not like Delhomme offers some unbelievable upside that isn't offered from guys like Philip Rivers, Matt Leinart, Vince Young, or Jason Campbell. And simply due to the injury alone, it's not like he's a "safe" choice either. So why roll the dice at that point in your draft? If he slides to you a couple of rounds after his ADP and you've already got your QB, there are worse guys to take a shot on. But doing anything remotely resembling relying on him to be your starter or co-starter is asking for trouble in my opinion.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

rzrback77:
Jake Delhomme could be setting up for a nice season that greatly outproduces in his draft position. He is coming off Tommy John surgery in the off-season and with his lack of production over the previous two seasons being combined with the surgery, he has fallen way down the draft lists. His current ADP is QB 15 and 102 overall.

He has excellent weapons for a change. He has thrived with Steve Smith, but off season additions of D.J. Hackett and Muhammad, the WRs look the best that Carolina has had in a while. Jake will be on the must watch preseason list to confirm that he has recovered, but if he has, he will offer value. Also in his favor and on the side of waiting late for a QB, there are several being drafted in that QB 15 to QB 20 range that have very solid potential for 08.

This estimate assumes that Jake is the starter from the get-go and recovered from his surgery.

bostonfred:
Carolina has officially transitioned from a defensive team to an offensive team. I love the new receivers, and I love the fact that they got a physical running back, who will force teams to keep eight in the box if he's any good. The biggest problem I have with this team is that the entire passing offense is fragile. Much has been made of the fact that Delhomme played three games last year, and 13 the prior year. But Hackett played in just six games last year, and has missed time in each of his three years in the NFL. Muhammad has played well, but he's slowed down, and at 35, can't have a lot of time left playing at a top level. And Steve Smith has missed time in three of his last four seasons. I don't think it's realistic to predict injury for any specific player on this offense, but it's aggressive to predict everyone to stay healthy for a full season, too. I like Delhomme a lot at his current value, but I'd need another good option to feel comfortable. If he starts sliding up the ADP rankings, I'll pass on him, but I like his value a lot as one of the last QB1s/first QB2s.

5-ish Finkle:
The only way I think you "fail" with Jake would be expecting him to give you a top 5 finish and by not backing him up quickly enough. That's the only real "rub" I see with him. If you wait on him as your first QB you need to be the first owner grabbing their 2nd. I've been seeing a lot of 12 team mocks where folks wait til round 8 or so and grab both Manning The Lesser and Jake with consecutive picks. Or Cutler and Jake/Jake and Schaub.

Jake Delhomme Projections