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Spotlight - TE Vernon Davis, San Francisco 49ers

Posted on 6/11, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jeff Tefertiller's Thoughts

No tight end in recent memory has created buzz in fantasy circles quite like Vernon Davis. He was drafted with the sixth overall pick in the 2006 NFL Draft. The former Maryland Terrapin is a physical freak. Head coach Mike Nolan was quoted in May as saying that the young phenom is already better than Antonio Gates and Tony Gonzalez after the catch. While this might be hyperbole, it is a good sign.

Vernon Davis has underperformed his ADP each of his first two years in the league. The young tight end finished as TE14 in his sophomore season after a disappointing rookie campaign. He had at least ten fantasy points in only three games, with only one game over eleven points. Fantasy owners underestimated how long it would take the gifted youngster to adjust to the NFL. The tight end position is one of the most difficult for college players make the transition. To make things even more difficult, Davis has had two different offensive coordinators in his first two seasons in the NFL. This year will make the third year in a row.

New coordinator Mike Martz's system is very complex. The pass-happy system should open the field more for Davis' ability to make plays after the catch. The new offense uses three receivers in the base offense and frequently spreads out four receivers. It will be interesting to see how the innovative offensive coordinator will use his athletic tight end. One worry is that the tight end position is rarely used in this offense. In fact, Ernie Conwell in 2001 was the most productive tight end under Martz with just 38 receptions and four touchdown grabs. Yes, it can be argued that Vernon Davis is the most talented tight end Martz has ever coached. But, the lack of involvement for tight ends in the past is not a good sign. It is expected that the athletic tight end will line up in different positions to best take advantage of mismatches. The twenty-four year old is a physical marvel. His speed and size make him quite the weapon in the open field.

While disappointing last season, many within the organization questioned Davis' discipline and attention to detail. There was even an unnamed teammate reported as saying he had never seen a NFL starter make as many mistakes as the former Terrapin made in 2007. Vernon Davis needs to work hard and learn the new offense. Martz is known for sitting players who make mistakes from not being prepared.

The lack of stability and production from the quarterback position will not help the third year pro make huge strides. Fantasy owners are still overvaluing the young tight end. At the present time, Vernon Davis is being drafted as the eighth tight end off the board in the early drafts. He is being drafted on pure potential, which is risky. Fantasy owners are taking Davis ahead of Jeremy Shockey, Heath Miller, Owen Daniels, and Tony Scheffler. This is quite the risk given his history of disappointing and the new Martz offense.

Positives

• Has improved every season, even with new coordinators
• Great ability after the catch
• Gets a more wide-open, pass-happy offense

Negatives

• Quarterback play could severely limit any upside
• Struggled to pick up simpler offense last season
• Martz's offense rarely features the tight end position

Final Thoughts

Vernon Davis is a polarizing player. His athletic prowess is unmatched. But, the Martz spread offense inhibits the upside of the tight end position. Considering where the young tight end is being drafted, there are better options that offer more upside, better production with much less risk.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

Tanner9919:
Freak or not, Vernon Davis won't get as many chances in a Martz' offense..Ernie Conwell never caught more than 38 balls in a Martz offense in St Louis. I couldn't even find TE stats worth noting from Martz's days in St Louis, do we need to see Cam Cleeland's stats? Roland Williams? Marcus Pollard caught 12 balls for Detroit last year...I mean seriously does anyone think Martz will actually use the TE position in SF anymore than he has in other towns? It's the same old stubborn Martz, in no way will he change his style just because of a 'freak' at a certain position.. Talent aside, VD is in the wrong offense for a TE

5-ish Finkle:
FWIW, Pollard played for Seattle last season. Otherwise, I basically agree. I don't see Davis magically becoming Tony Gonzalez in a Mike Martz offense. And hasn't he had a problem actually catching the balls that get thrown to him as it is?(I've seen very, very few of his games as a pro. I'm not stating that as fact, I'm asking.)

TS Garp:
A large part of the reason that Ernie Conwell never caught more than 38 balls in Martz's offense is that he's, well, Ernie Conwell. Martz had so much talent at WR and RB that bringing a talented, pass-catching TE and designing plays for that person wasn't a priority. Now he finds himself in a situation where aside from Frank Gore, the most talented and athletic player on his offense is his Tight End. Unless Martz is the most stubborn guy on the planet, I can't see him completely refusing to alter what he's done in the past and effectively ignoring Davis. Remember, he doesn't have Bruce/Holt or Roy Williams/Calvin Johnson to work with this time around. Personally, I think Martz is smart enough to know that he has a weapon in Davis and he needs to design some plays to get him the ball. Remember, Martz's coaching idol is the one and only Don Coryell, and we know that Coryell knew how to utilize a Tight End. I'm not expecting him to re-design his offense to make Davis happy and I do think it'll be a bumpy ride as Davis seems to still be learning the fundamentals, but I think he'll have a good year and has quite a bit of upside.

Jon_Moore:
People can say what they want about Mike Martz not using a tight end. I wouldn't have used the ones he had either. If you have Isaac Bruce, Torry Holt, and Marshall Faulk, all of whom are likely headed for the HOF, why would you throw to a no name TE? Oh and don't forget the big armed quarterbacks he had been blessed with back there. Fast forward to 2008, your receivers are Bryant Johnson and a considerably older, slower Isaac Bruce. Frank Gore's good, real good, but he alone won't keep Davis from getting catches. Oh, and the quarterback...Alex Smith, Shaun Hill...neither scares anyone, I'd imagine the winner of that battle throws alot of underneath stuff to Gore and DAVIS. I'd expect a breakout season for Davis, who's entering his 3rd year.

CalBear:
In 2006 Martz had Marcus Pollard, former top-3 TE, coming off a season where he led the team in receptions and was second in yardage and TDs. Martz arrived and threw the ball 98 times to Mike Furrey and 61 times to Kevin Jones. Pollard caught 12 balls.

Vernon Davis doesn't have the route-running skills or the hands to play in the slot the way Gates and Gonzalez do, and Martz's offense is built around clean routes and clean releases from the line. Davis is a bad fit, and really hasn't shown that much anyway.

Vernon Davis Projections