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Spotlight - QB Jay Cutler, Denver Broncos

Posted on 6/27, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jason Wood's Thoughts

When the Broncos drafted Jay Cutler with the 11th pick in the 2006 draft, I was skeptical. Cutler was certainly a physical talent who rose above an inferior supporting cast to win SEC Player of the Year quarterbacking Vanderbilt. But he was also a guy with a losing collegiate record who, by the nature of his supporting cast, had to be a gun slinger and try to force throws game after game. I worried that his gun-slinging ways wouldn't translate to the NFL; where defenses are faster and there's little margin for error regardless of how strong a QB's arm may be.

But two years later, I have no doubts. In fact, Jay Cutler is one of my favorite QB targets in this year's fantasy drafts. At his current ADP (QB12, 80th pick overall), I believe Cutler is one of the few QBs that you can draft in the mid rounds but stands an excellent chance of finishing at a top tier fantasy starter.

Let's start with the obvious, Cutler had an impressive first season as a full-time starter:

• 297 completions
• 467 attempts
• 63.6%
• 3,497 yards
• 7.5 yards per attempt
• 20 TDs
• 14 INTs
• 44 rushes
• 205 rushing yards
• 1 rushing TD
• 11th ranked fantasy QB

If Cutler simply maintained his level of play, he would be a fringe top-10 fantasy option. Yet, entering his 3rd season (and 2nd as a full-time starter), it's far more logical to expert further improvement. But let's get specific:

The Diabetes Issue

This offseason, Cutler disclosed that he has Type-1 Diabetes. Diabetes is a chronic disease that deals with the body's inability to produce enough insulin. While there's no cure, the good news is it's extremely manageable when properly diagnosed. Why is this relevant to Cutler's fantasy outlook? Because last year Cutler was suffering from the onset of the disease but was unaware of his condition. As a result, he lost 32 pounds during the season and felt chronically fatigued. He lost muscle mass and couldn't perform at his optimum level as the season wore on. While it may not have been obvious from his stats, it's impossible to believe the loss of 32 pounds of muscle mass had a positive impact on his numbers.

With the disease in check, Cutler is back to his 225 pound playing weight and feels great. There's no way that's not a positive factor heading into 2008.

The Broncos should pass the ball more in 2008

As message board poster Just Win Baby pointed out, the Broncos' have been uncharacteristically spartan in their offensive snaps over the last two seasons:

Just adding up passing attempts and rushing attempts, the Denver offense only totaled 944 last season and 942 in 2006. They averaged 1030 in the other 11 seasons of Shanahan's tenure in Denver. I'm not sure what league wide trends may have affected that number or how it compares to other teams. But that is a huge drop. So, if there is reason to believe that number will rebound closer to what it had been for previous Denver teams, there is reason to believe that passing attempts could hold or increase, even while rushing attempts increase.

I'll go one step further and say the Broncos WILL pass more this year. The rushing attack continues to look questionable (Travis Henry was waived) and the defense is in flux. The team added mammoth OT Ryan Clady in this year's draft and signed battle-tested veteran Casey Wiegmann to play center. Both should provide an immediate upgrade to an offensive line that was inconsistent last year.

• Improving QB + Suspect Defense + Improved O-Line + Average RB Corps = More Passing Attempts

The State of the Receiving Corps is the X-Factor

My enthusiasm for Cutler is predicated on three very big assumptions as it relates to the Broncos receiving corps.

1. WR Brandon Marshall's arm will be OK -- Marshall tore ligaments in a wrestling match with his brother, and while I'm optimistic about his recovery, he has to prove it during camp or questions will linger. Without a healthy Marshall, all bets are off.
2. TE Tony Scheffler's foot will be OK -- Last preseason Tony Scheffler broke his left foot and required surgery. That led to him not catching a pass in the first month of the season before turning in a monster final 12 weeks. Despite his productivity, Scheffler played with pain the entire season. In May mini-camp, he re-aggravated the injury and had to be shelved for a month. Luckily, the foot wasn't broken again and just needed rest. But this does raise questions about whether his foot issues will be chronic. We're betting against that, but it's something to watch for given his importance to the Broncos passing attack.
3. The new additions will matter -- Last year, Brandon Stokley was the 2nd leading WR on the team with 40 receptions. Glenn Martinez' 14 receptions ranks 3rd among returning receivers. Yikes. So the Broncos didn't sit on their laurels, and have brought in Darrell Jackson, Keary Colbert, Samie Parker and drafted rookie Eddie Royal in the 2nd round. While I'm not ready to argue that any of these guys are monster additions by themselves, I certainly think that the three who emerge from training camp will provide Cutler with far better depth and insurance against an injury risk to one of the starters.

Positives

• Cutler was exemplary last year, completing a high percentage of his passes, showing touch on his deep throws while also hitting players in stride on crossing patterns, and should show the natural improvement that comes with experience under center
• Cutler is extremely mobile and should push for 200-250 yards rushing this year; which as you know goes a long way in fantasy leagues because rushing yards usually count 2-2.5x as much as passing yards
• Cutler's solid sophomore season was in spite of suffering from undiagnosed Diabetes; which robbed him of 32 pounds, stamina and muscle mass
• The receiving corps, barring injury setbacks, should be much deeper in 2008

Negatives

• Cutler's strength of schedule looks daunting
• His top two receiving options have significant injury question marks (Marshall's arm and Scheffler's foot)
• The offensive line must improve in order to expect consistent top-10 production

Final Thoughts

There is a lot to like about Jay Cutler this year. All things being equal, it would be reasonable to expect improvement as Cutler enters his 2nd full-season under center. He understands the offense better, and nothing cements a QB's status more than reps on Sundays. But the great news is things haven't stayed the same. He's healthy and stronger. His receiving corps is deeper. His offensive line has made improvements. As long as Brandon Marshall and Tony Scheffler appear ready to contribute to start the season, there's no reason Cutler can't approach 4,000 yards passing and 20-25 TD passes. Throw in 200+ rushing yards and he's a fantasy sleeper to target after you've built up your RB and WR positions in the first five or six rounds.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

Just Win Baby:
Just adding up passing attempts and rushing attempts, the Denver offense only totaled 944 last season and 942 in 2006. They averaged 1030 in the other 11 seasons of Shanahan's tenure in Denver. I'm not sure what league wide trends may have affected that number or how it compares to other teams. But that is a huge drop. So, if there is reason to believe that number will rebound closer to what it had been for previous Denver teams, there is reason to believe that passing attempts could hold or increase, even while rushing attempts increase.

This is important, because last season Denver had the fewest rushing attempts in Shanahan's tenure with Denver. In the previous 12 seasons under Shanahan, they averaged 503 rushing attempts per season, but they had only 429 last year. Granted, it is probably unfair to compare the years with Terrell Davis and Portis, so let's just look at the seasons since Portis left.

In 2004, Droughns, Griffin, and Tatum Bell shared the load, and Denver had 534 rushing attempts.

In 2005, 32 year old Mike Anderson, Tatum Bell, and Dayne shared the load, and Denver had 542 rushing attempts.

In 2006, Tatum Bell and Mike Bell were the primary ball carriers, and Denver had 488 rushing attempts.

Last year, Denver had only 429 rushing attempts. Quite an outlier. This year, the RB stable is not noticeably better, with Henry gone and Pittman and Torain added. But I still fully expect a significant increase in rushing attempts. I mean, isn't the current stable better than the combination of Tatum Bell and Mike Bell were in 2006?

Cutler attempted only 467 passes last year, and finished as QB11, with Ramsey throwing 48 passes. Will Cutler get every attempt this year? How much will the rushing attempts go up? Will total plays also go up? All of these things will bear on how many attempts Cutler gets. I think he'll need 500 attempts to get close to the higher end projections people have for him.

In the past 10 years, a Denver QB has had 500+ passing attempts only 1 time - Plummer had 521 in 2004... but Denver also had 534 rushing attempts, so to get similar results would imply a need for Cutler to get all the passing attempts and the number of offensive plays to go up more than 10%. The second highest total over that 10 year period is Cutler's 467 last season.

Cutler's completion percentage (63%) and ypa (7.5) were already high last season. I don't see him doing more with the same number of attempts, other than possibly adding a bit to his passing TDs.

As for other factors, Cutler had a difficult schedule last season, so that bodes well, but he also has a few new receivers to work with and the ongoing injury issues with Marshall and Scheffler. For the most part, these probably offset. I'm really not sure how to account for the diabetes issue. Intuitively, it's a positive, but I'm not sure to what extent his numbers should be adjusted for it.

Iwannabeacowboybaby!:
Cutler threw the ball 467 times last season, if you look at the top QB's in the league, they're throwing the ball more than he is. I believe the coaching staff has more trust now in Cutler than they did to start the season off last year and we'll be seeing Cutler throw the ball up around 500 times this season. The running game doesn't look to be improved in Denver and the defense is patchy to say the least.

JKL:
Cutler is the real deal, grab him in dynasty. Here is a set of similarity scores I wrote about at the PFR blog. When the names Montana, Brady, Aikman, Favre, Roethlisberger, Brees, Peyton and Jim Kelly are in your comp list at a similar age, the odds are we have a star on our hands. I expect a monster year sometime in the near future, I just don't know if it will be 2008. I still like him higher than his current ADP. The comp% might go down a bit due to regression, but I think the attempts go up, I see no reason that the YPA should go down, and I think he bumps up the td% in 2008.

Chase Stuart, FBG Staff:
Cutler had the misfortune of missing the Lions game, which means he probably should have had a another 300/3 last season. He actually had the hardest schedule in the league last season. When adjusting for SOS, Cutler was the 11th best QB on a per game basis last year. That's obviously borderline QB1 material. The one problem for Cutler -- he's projected to have the toughest schedule in the league this year. So it might not be wise to "bump his '07 numbers up" because he had the hardest schedule in the league last year.

Jon_Moore:
Cutler is in an iffy situation. He has a great young receiver in Marshall, but who knows how that injury affects him. Will he be able to catch the ball the same? After that, though, there isn't alot to get excited about. Darrell Jackson used to be a stud, but those days appear as if they're behind him. Keary Colbert has been less than terrible at times, but never really gotten defenses too worried. Denver's running game? They just cut the most talented back on the team in Henry, everyone else is an unknown. So, One REALLY good receiver, and not alot else, except for Scheffler who's injured.

Now, here's the awesome part, he was in almost the same situation this past year, and still had a very nice fantasy season, all while dealing with the diabetes issue that caused significant weight loss. He lost Javon Walker, had a very inconsistent running game, and still came up with 3500 yards and 20 tds. If Marshall and Scheffler are both healthy by training camp, I find it impossible not to be high on Cutler.

Jay Cutler Projections