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Spotlight - WR Kevin Curtis, Philadelphia Eagles

Posted on 6/18, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jason Wood's Thoughts

As I write this, Kevin Curtis is grossly undervalued. According to our most current ADP data, Curtis is being drafted as the 32nd receiver in fantasy drafts this year. Not coincidentally, he's currently ranked 31st in our consensus staff rankings. Let's take a look at the statistics for the 31st ranked fantasy WR in each of the last five years:

Now compare those numbers to Kevin Curtis' tally in 2007...

• 77 receptions
• 1,110 yards
• 6 TDs
• 147 fantasy points

Putting two and two together, the CONSENSUS view right now is that Kevin Curtis is going to suffer a 24% decline in his overall productivity.

Can you say DOES NOT COMPUTE? Let me count the ways...

1. Curtis is healthy -- Despite his size (5'11", 186 pounds), Curtis has been durable. He's never missed significant time to injury and enters training camp a picture of health
2. The Eagles are one of the most pass happy teams in the league -- Andy Reid (much to Eagles fans dismay) believes that a 5-yard pass completion is as good as a 5-yard run. That means a lot to fantasy owners though because we can be sure that the Eagles receivers are going to be targeted early and often. Curtis was targeted 135 times last year, does anyone really think he's going to lose 30-40 targets in 2008?
3. Donovan McNabb, when healthy, is among the NFC's best passers -- McNabb has been to five Pro Bowls and, at this point in his career, has complete mastery of the Eagles west coast offense. When healthy, you can be sure he'll put up monster numbers; again to Curtis' benefit
4. Curtis remains the Eagles best wide receiver -- The Eagles added rookie DeSean Jackson in the April draft, and have high hopes for him longer term; but no rookie is going to step into the Eagles offense and take over. More to the point, expect Jackson to displace Reggie Brown, who struggled much of last season, rather than the sure-handed and reliable Curtis
5. Curtis will have a year of experience in the offense; which bodes well for further improvement -- If you had argued that Curtis would struggle LAST year, I wouldn't have questioned it. After all, he had to adjust to a new offensive system, and a complex one at that. Yet, Curtis didn't struggle. He was the Eagles top pass receiver and finished as a top-20 fantasy WR. With a year of experience in the system, it's logical to expect IMPROVEMENT, rather than declining metrics

Positives

• Curtis is sure handed and runs precise routes; a perfect combination for success in the West Coast offense
• The Eagles are, and will remain, among the league's most pass happy offenses
• Curtis is being drafted as though he should see a material drop off from his 2007 totals

Negatives

• It's possible rookie DeSean Jackson could eat into his touches marginally, particularly in the 2nd half of the season
• Curtis can get hung up on the line of scrimmage against physical press coverage
• TE L.J. Smith is back and healthy; he will probably be the team's top red zone target

Final Thoughts

Very few people expected Kevin Curtis to deliver a 1,000-yard season in his first go around in Philadelphia. But what's ironic is that now that he's exceeded expectations, people seem resolved to discount his accomplishments heading into 2008. Don't over think things. Curtis finished as WR17 last year in his first season learning a totally new offense. He returns healthy, experienced, and the team's QB and coaching staff remain intact. Yes, the team added DeSean Jackson and TE L.J. Smith is healthy again, but if anything they should eat into the touches of lesser options and not the Eagles most reliable wideout. Remember, his current ADP (WR32) suggests Curtis is going to have a 25%-30% reduction in productivity year over year; that's nonsensical. As long as Curtis and McNabb are healthy, you are guaranteed great value on draft day if his ADP stays at current levels.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

Banger:
I targeted him last year in every league because you could get him for nothing and he had a good situation but this year he'll be on too many people's radar and be too expensive for his upside. He had a nice season last year but is very replaceable IMO if another WR steps up. He's solid but unspectacular and if he's the starter with McNabb at the helm he'll get his targets/yards.

Sake-Bombers:
*** I'm not so sure the consensus fantasy opinion on Curtis is that he's the #1 receiver in Philly. I would venture to say that a lot of folks consider him and Brown to be 1b and 1b (if that makes sense). I just looked at target and reception numbers, and I think for both there are only 4 games where Brown out-targeted and/or out-receptioned Curtis, so not saying the numbers bear it out, but I think folks have a hard time swallowing Curtis as a number one WR.

*** Fairly or not, I think there's also a "Drew Bennett effect" here. As many have pointed out, his big games boosted his overall totals, and he wasn't quite consistent enough throughout the whole season to earn everyone's trust that he can be a consistent performer.

*** I think the QB situation is another thing that's going to be push people down on him

Jeff Tefertiller, FBG Staff:
I did a little research on Curtis. I saw a few things that gave me cause for concern.

20% of Curtis' yards came in one game
50% of his TDs in same game
15% of receptions in same game
Only three games with at least 100 yards receiving

Curtis is a tough receiver to gauge and know when to insert into the fantasy lineup. He had several games that were clunkers. In fact, he had many more clunkers than good games. For my taste, there is way too much risk in starting him every week as a WR3.

rzrback77:
Kevin Curtis screams value to me this year. He finished as WR17 in FBG scoring in 07 in his first year in Philly. I have heard that their system is fairly complex so he should do better in his second year also with that additional time to build chemistry with McNabb.

I understand the high games and valleys. It is expected with all WRs, but may be accelerated with Curtis and his relatively poor ability to separate. However, shouldn't those weak defenses be spotted so you can better know his high games and valleys and not start him in bad spots.

His career reception percentage slipped in 07 and should improve some this year. He ranked 16th in the NFL in targets and if he keeps that level and ups his catch percentage just a little he'll provide value for where you draft him. Contrary to the target ranking of 17, he is currently ranked around 32 in the FBG ranking.

Jon_Moore:
Curtis has a god combination of toughness and speed. However, last year seemed to be an anomaly. It's not often a receiver breaks out at 28. Philly's offense is pass pass pass, no doubt, but if Reggie Brown looks like the same guy from 2006, DeSean Jackson is decent, and Westbrook doesn't die, then there just won't be enough balls for Curtis to get 1,000 again.

Kevin Curtis Projections