All Spotlights • Jerricho Cotchery Player Page • NYJ Projections • WR Projections • WR Rankings • NYJ Team Report

Spotlight - WR Jerricho Cotchery, New York Jets

Posted on 6/23, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Marc Levin's Thoughts

Cotchery plays bigger than his 6'0" 200 pounds. The guy breaks tackles, makes tough catches at key moments, and is known for gaining yards after the catch (YAC). Though he has 4.54 speed, he can certainly be caught from behind. Nevertheless, he is the team's best deep threat and his impressive YAC moves the chains. Cotchery was 15th in the league in first down receptions with 51. That was second on the team to RB Thomas Jones' 55 first down rushes and 8 first down receptions.

Since evolving from special teams and deep on the receiver depth chart to replace Justin McCareins in the starting lineup in 2006, Cotchery has 164 catches for over 2,000 yards. His statistical problem, from a fantasy perspective, is his lack of TDs. He had only 2 TDs in 2007, even though he was the primary receiving option for at least 5 games. He caught 6 of his 12 red zone targets; but, he did not reliably convert them into TDs. In fact, he caught only 1 red zone TD last year. Compare that to fellow starting WR Laveranues Coles' ability to haul in 4 TDs on 5 red zone catches and you can see the issue. To catch a bunch of TDs, a WR needs one of two things: either an ability to outrun defenders to reach the end zone (and, as was mentioned, Cotchery lacks that gear), or efficiency on his red zone targets. We will address this second point a bit later.

Since Cotchery heads into pretty much the same situation this year as he headed into last year, he can be counted on to pour in another 80-ish catches and 1,000-ish yards on 125-ish targets. I would normally add the phrase: "if he doesn't suffer an injury" here. However, Cotchery demonstrated that he is able to grit out an injury and stay on the field. Late in 2007, Cotchery suffered a finger injury. There was much speculation that the team would shut him down as the Jets were clearly not playoff-bound. Cotchery played out the string and had a solid fantasy playoff run. He averaged nearly 12 FPs per game from weeks 14-17. In PPR leagues, his average jumped to an impressive 18.9 FPs per game. Many fantasy owners held the trophy in large part due to Cotchery's decision to play out the season.

OK, let's talk about those TDs. I do not believe Cotchery will improve his touchdown numbers this year. I have three reasons for that statement. First, as mentioned earlier, Cotchery was not efficient on his red zone opportunities. Whether that was due to poor QB play or not is irrelevant as the QB situation has not changed. Cotchery may have Pennington throwing the ball. If that is the case, then expect Coles' red zone numbers to improve - not Cotchery's. Pennington clearly has better rapport with Coles. Cotchery may have Clemens throwing the ball. If that is the case, then Cotchery can expect to have very few opportunities. Clemens was simply atrocious in the red zone last year. 14 completions on 37 attempts for only 5 TDs. Do not expect HC Eric Mangini to give Clemens free rein in the red zone.

The second reason I do not believe Cotchery will improve his touchdown numbers is that the team is moving towards a ball control/running game-friendly offense. Expect the Jets' red zone possessions to go like this: 1st down, run, second down run. Third down and less than 3 yards to go? Run and kick. Third down and more than 3 yards to go? Safe pass, kick the field goal.

The third reason I do not believe Cotchery will improve his touchdown numbers is competition. Thomas Jones was no good in the red zone last year (47 attempts with only 1 TD scored -- wow!). However, the team brought in offensive lineman after offensive lineman to improve that situation -- expect Mangini to use Jones behind those road graders early in the year. Also, the team drafted a pass-catching slot-receiver TE in Dustin Keller to play alongside their pass-catching starting TE Chris Baker. What do two pass-catching TEs do when they are both on the field in the red zone? Exactly.

So, if Cotchery can not improve his TD numbers, his fantasy upside remains in the low-20s wide receiver range for this year. As his current ADP is as the WR28/77th overall, he represents a slight value if drafted near his ADP. That said, since he racks up a lot of receptions on a per game basis, he is probably the most consistent fantasy player on the Jets in PPR leagues. If you are able to snag him near his WR28 ADP in a PPR league, count yourself lucky.

Positives

• Cotchery is a talented receiver who is likely to see upwards of 125 targets this year
• The team is taking a WR 1a/WR1b approach to Cotchery and Laveranues Coles
• Played through a late season injury last year and continued put up nice numbers during the fantasy playoffs

Negatives

• A total of eight career touchdowns
• Either potential starting QB for the Jets is a poor option
• The team's focus on defense and ball control, combined with its concentration on the OL and RB position, likely means the Jets will be running more and passing less

Final Thoughts

Cotchery is likely the safest fantasy option on the Jets roster after RB Thomas Jones. As a WR with an ADP outside the top-24 receiver, you could do a lot worse than Cotchery as your fantasy team's WR3. I predict he will have very few receiving TDs this year because I see the Jets playing very conservatively, Coles is a more dependable red zone threat, and Cotchery doesn't catch many long-bomb TDs despite being the team's best deep threat. But, if you have more confidence in his ability to catch TDs this year, he could have tremendous upside being drafted outside the top-24 receiver. And, he's an excellent value at that spot in PPR leagues, regardless of his TD production.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

The Man with the Plan:
Jerricho Cotchery had 2 games with over 150 yards receiving last season (Week 2 @ Baltimore 165 yards, Week 16 @ Tennessee 152 yards). It seems like no matter if the QB is Chad Pennington or Kellen Clemens, Cotchery will be able to perform. If the offensive line improves as expected that can only help Cotchery's numbers. He's an underrated player.

Jon_Moore:
Cotchery is a great blend of speed and route running ability.

The Quarterback play is going to affect his numbers to a good degree I believe. In 2006, on 82 catches, he got 11.7 yards per reception withi Pennington at the helm.

I broke it down by games in which each qb threw the majority of the passes.

In games where Clemens was the primary passer, Cotchery's average yard per catch per average was 16.2
In games where Pennington passed the most, it was 11.4.

That's just under 5 more yards per reception if Clemens is passing.

Basically, Pennington doesn't have the arm strength for Cotchery to maximize his talent.

If Clemens is finally the full-time starter, I would expect an uptick in yards per reception, and in big play tds, as Clemens can actually throw behind the defense.

rzrback77:
I really like the abilities of both Cotchery and Coles, but I will not be surprised to see the JETS focus a little more on the running game in 08. Almost every prediction in this thread is for Cotchery to see increases after back to back 80 catch seasons. I think its more likely a slight downturn for Cotchery. Only reason for this I expect to see an increase in rushing attempts and possibly more chances for Coles who missed several games in 07.

pjconley:
Cotchery has been a consistent possession receiver since he got the starting job in 2006 (He caught exactly 82 passes in both his starting years). He dosen't have blazing speed, but he does have the ability to take break a long TD (as seen in 2006 vs the Patriots during what I consider one of the best catches of that year.). For 2008, I expect his touchdown numbers to go up. With the new additions on the offensive line in Alan Faneca and Damien Woody, the quarterback will have more time in the pocket giving the the receivers plenty of time to get open.

Jerricho Cotchery Projections