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Spotlight - TE Chris Cooley, Washington Redskins

Posted on 6/11, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Marc Levin's Thoughts

I was probably the worst person on staff to be asked to write a Spotlight about Chris Cooley. I never pick him in drafts, I never think the person who picked him made a good decision, I never watch for him when I catch the Redskins on TV, and I am never scared of my fantasy opponent for starting Cooley against me. The most thought I ever gave to Cooley was in 2005, when I had to figure out if he was a fullback or a tight end for fantasy purposes. As I delved into Cooley's stats, however, I began to understand the fantasy value of "Johnny White Guy" (a nickname from RB Clinton Portis, if you didn't know).

Will you ever confuse Cooley's talent with those of elite fantasy TEs like Gates, Gonzalez, Witten, or Winslow? Nope. Will he single-handedly carry your fantasy team in a given week? Nope. Will he cost you a pick in the first five rounds? Nope. Will he live up to his likely draft spot? An emphatic YES! Currently, Cooley is the fifth fantasy TE off the board at #67 overall. In 12-team leagues, that is the late 6th round. Cooley has finished as the #4, #5 and #6 TE over the last three years with balanced production from a reception, yardage and TD perspective. He's coming off career highs in yardage (786) and TDs (8).

The name of the game with Cooley is fantasy consistency, not fantasy domination. He averaged 7.9 fantasy points (FP) per game in 2007. While he had only three double-digit FP games, he also had only two games during the fantasy regular season that could be considered clunkers (1 FP in week one, 0 FPs in week seven). He had two sub-5 point games in the fantasy playoffs, which didn't endear him to his owners. But, he was on the field. Owners of Todd Heap and Jeremy Shockey would have gladly accepted 4 poor games for 12 weeks of a guaranteed production. This year's owners can expect similarly consistent production.

Let's talk TDs. Cooley's 8 TDs were spread out. He did not have a multiple TD game in 2007. In fact, Cooley has only one multiple TD game in his career (3 TDs against Dallas in week 15 of 2005). The reason for this is simple -- Cooley is actually not targeted all that often in the red zone. He averages 15.25 red zone targets per year -- less than one red zone target per game -- yet, he has 27 career TDs. Considering Cooley averaged 102.6 targets per year over the last three years, he makes the most of every red zone opportunity. The number of TDs Cooley receives on such limited opportunities are nice and, when combined with his other opportunities, are what separates him from pure goal line TEs like Pittsburgh's Heath Miller. Considering his production per target, you have to like Cooley's upside as a red zone threat for the Redskins in 2008.

Elite fantasy TEs often seem to have a confluence of several factors including: an elite running back, a ball control QB, and an unreliable or unproven wide receiving corps. Think about Trent Green and Tony Gonzalez with Priest Holmes. Think about Philip Rivers/Drew Brees and Antonio Gates with LaDanian Tomlinson. Think about Steve McNair and Todd Heap with Jamal Lewis. While there are exceptions (Witten and Winslow come to mind), we can apply that formula to Cooley's situation and see some hopeful signs. Clinton Portis provides solid running game support. Santana Moss and Antwaan Randle-El have big play ability, but they are inconsistent and far from dominant. Rookie WRs Malcolm Kelly and Devin Thomas have promise but, at least to start the season, aren't going to scare even the Miami Dolphins' secondary.

The question mark is QB Jason Campbell. As much criticism as is leveled against Campbell for lack of consistency, he took care of the ball in 2007. He threw only 11 INTs in 407 pass attempts in 13 games. Redskins QBs threw only 17 TD passes, but 9 of them were to TEs (Todd Yoder caught one in week two). Moreover, the Redskins are converting to a West Coast offense that relies on high percentage passing opportunities. The team's receivers play well downfield, and poorly underneath. Hello, TE Cooley! I expect Cooley's targets to increase, his red zone looks to increase, and his overall production to increase to new career highs across the board.

I believe Cooley is appropriately valued as the #5 or so TE off the board, and I believe that is about where he will rank at year end. Choosing your TE in the late 6th round opens up other possibilities for your 1st through 5th round picks, while still providing a player who will give you solid production. This is an aside, but the 6th round looks like the beginning of the sweet spot for TEs. That is where you can select other high side TEs like Tony Gonzalez and Dallas Clark. Though I believe Cooley is in for the best year of his career, I do not believe his potential for explosive fantasy numbers on a given week is any better this year. While my statistical inquiry has not made me giddy about Cooley's 2008 prospect, I have respect for the consistency he brings to the TE position on a fantasy squad.

Positives

• Chris Cooley is one of the more consistent fantasy TEs around, finishing as the #6, #5, and #4 TE each of the last three years.
• He fits the profile of an upside TE as he is on a team with a ball control QB, a super star RB, a lack of dominant WRs, a pass-friendly scheme, and a commitment to targeting the TE.
• Cooley has exceptional TD production with relatively few red zone targets. Yet, he is a heavily targeted TE at 102+ targets per year. He could end up with both high yardage and a significant number of red zone targets in the new West Coast offense.

Negatives

• Cooley is appropriately valued in the 6th round -- he is not likely to break into the top-2/top-3 of fantasy TEs this year and carry your fantasy squad from the TE position
• Has only one multiple TD game in his career.
• Confidence in Jason Campbell at QB is a strong consideration before spending a mid-range draft pick. Is Cooley a Gonzalez type talent who can succeed even if his QB is struggling?

Final Thoughts

Chris Cooley is a consistent fantasy TE, but not an elite talent or a top fantasy prospect. He has less upside potential than two other 6th round TEs in Dallas Clark and Tony Gonzalez. In fact, his upside potential may not even be as great as some TEs drafted several round later, such as Todd Heap, Vernon Davis, Jeremy Shockey, and Alge Crumpler. Those TEs are in the right situations to be top-5 TEs like Cooley. Yet they have the added potential to dominate games. In fact, outside of Davis, those other TEs have a history of explosive fantasy production and elite TE finishes. The owner has to ask him or her self whether Cooley's fantasy consistency is worth his lack of fantasy explosiveness.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

Ministry of Pain:
Chris Cooley will be thrust into the WCO this year under 1st year HC Jim Zorn...while I am not eager about the Redskins offense this season, I do realize that Cooley will get his. I wondered if Washington drafted Fred Davis because they are not sure whether they can afford Cooley long term...but that is pure speculation and I don't actually know what Cooley is signed to so i will bow out to the Skins Nation on that one.

In 2005 Cooley had 71 receptions, watched that dip to 57 in 2006, and then posted 66 in 2007. What has not changed is his yardage and TD over the past 3 seasons. 774/7, 734/6, and 786/8...he is very steady in the yds and TD.

dgreen:
They just gave him a new contract last season.

Tatum Bell:
They're going to run a lot of two-TE sets, and they want the defense to have to worry about either (or both) TEs potentially going out into routes on any given play. Cooley is the clear #1 guy, not only as a TE, but also as far as proven receivers go, so he's secure in his role. Zorn's offense will capable IMHO of supporting two top-15 TEs ultimately, sort of the way that Indy (which also ran a lot of two-TE sets) did circa 2004-05, though I expect Zorn's offense to probably emphasize the TEs more than the Colts did.

dgreen:
Over the last three seasons, Cooley has caught 22.3% of the Redskins completions for 23.9% of the passing yards and 33.9% of the receiving TDs. Fairly impressive numbers. And, they are even more impressive with Campbell. Cooley has pulled in 23.9% of Campbell's completions for 25.9% of Campbell's yards and 45.5% of Campbell's TDs!!! Yes, Cooley has been on the receiving end of 10 of Campbell's 22 TD passes.

Having all these new weapons who Campbell might not be too comfortable with early on could bode well for Cooley. If you think Campbell and Cooley have a good connection now, just wait until Campbell's options are Cooley or a rookie WR or TE. I'm going to give him 23% of Campbell's 306 completions, which is 70 receptions (one off his career high).

Cooley's averaging 12 YPC with Campbell (13.7 in 2006 and 11.1 in 2007). But, what kind of routes will he be running this year compared to Gibbs/Saunders? He's really good with the ball in his hands and can turn a quick slant or out pattern into a nice gain. However, under Gibbs/Saunders, he seemed to run a lot of stuff downfield and pick up some large chunks of yardage. I'm not sure how much of that will still be part of his game. I'll go with a slightly conservative, but still healthy for a TE, 11.5 YPC. Multiply that by his 70 receptions and he has a career high 809 yards.

As I mentioned, Cooley has hauled in 10 of Campbell's 22 career TDs. Based on his history with Campbell detailed above, Cooley would be in the 8-9 TD range (out of 19 Campbell TDs) in 2008. However, despite being Campbell's "go to guy", this year he should have some red zone competition from the three rookies. I think size was an important factor in the selection of Thomas, Kelly, and Davis. So, I'll stick with his three-year TD average of 7.

So, that leaves Cooley with 70-809-7 and likely a top 5 finish.

Chris Cooley Projections