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Spotlight - TE Dallas Clark, Indianapolis Colts

Posted on 7/7, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Cecil Lammey's Thoughts

When the Colts drafted Dallas Clark out of Iowa in the first round they clearly expected that he would pay dividends. After missing some time on and off through the early part of his career Clark finally proved to be the stud TE that many thought he could be. In 2007 he had a career high in targets (101), receptions (58), yardage (616), and TDs (11). In the past the Colts liked to use 2 Tight End sets. Whether it was Marcus Pollard or Brian Fletcher, Indy was always using a committee of sorts. Even last year the Colts used Ben Utecht as their TE2. We saw a shift and increase in production from the TEs, and Dallas was the recipient of most of that increase.

So what was different? The injury to Marvin Harrison forced Peyton Manning to look elsewhere for targets. Anthony Gonzalez had to learn the ropes in the NFL really quick, and it took some time for him to develop timing and chemistry with Manning. Aaron Moorehead continued to drop easy passes, with Devin Aromashadu, and Craphonso Thorpe playing clean up. In the meantime the show went on, with Clark playing the role of the #2 receiver in one of the league's most high powered offenses. Dallas was up to the challenge and the Colts have to be really encouraged by his performance.

Questions about Dallas coming into 2008:

Can he become a more consistent fantasy performer?
Yes. Dallas had over 100 targets last season, but there were some games where -- let's face it -- he had a case of the dropsies. We could see a decline in his overall targets, but with better concentration he could have near the same performance overall. In 12 of 15 games during the regular season Clark had 5 targets or more. With the Colts propensity to use the TEs in the red zone, 5 or more targets are all a player needs to put up good fantasy points. Clark is a big factor early in games, with most of his stats coming in the first 2 quarters. If he can get off to a better start in 2008, fantasy owners will be rewarded with consistent production.

Will the emergence of Anthony Gonzalez hurt his numbers?
With his breakout game in week 12 Anthony Gonzalez started to make his mark in the NFL. The future looks bright for Anthony in 2008, but that doesn't mean he'll chip away at Dallas Clark's statistics. For all we know Gonzalez could turn into the type of player that Reggie Wayne used to be when he was the WR2. But Anthony will have to keep proving himself in order for that to happen. Clark has proved himself, and Manning knows who to look for in the red zone. In 2007 Dallas had 9 of his 11 TDs in the red zone -- and in the first half. In the first 2 quarters the Colts are trying to establish the offense and a tempo for the game. Gonzalez is an up and coming receiver, but he could be used mostly when the game is on the line and the Colts are mounting a comeback. How Marvin Harrison performs in 2008 may be a bigger threat to Clark. Harrison didn't look the same in the playoffs, and his career could very well be in decline. Until we see differently Dallas Clark enters the season as the #2 option in the passing game.

Does the drafting of Jacob Tamme affect his production this year?
This is a sign of the Colts wanting to build depth more than stripping Clark of playing time. Jacob Tamme was an important part of the Wildcats offense, and was a trusted target for QB Andre Woodson. One thing Tamme will never be mistaken for is a sound blocker. Jacob may be used more in obvious passing situations until he can find his way, and at least become a competent blocker. They may also use him in motion, where he can get a clean release off the ball. Rookie receivers, and especially TEs usually take some time to develop their pro skill set and get used to the speed of the game. Tamme could develop into a receiver that Peyton Manning can rely on, but more than likely that won't happen this year. The drafting of Tamme led to the release of Brian Fletcher, but it will be a while before he is challenging for significant playing time.

Is 2007 a career year, or does it indicate greater things to come?
The Colts have plenty of options in the passing game, and Dallas Clark is right at the top of the list. To be honest, Clark more than likely had a career year for TD receptions in 2007. Touchdowns are the most unpredictable stat in fantasy football, and it seems unlikely that Clark could repeat a double-digit performance in 2008. If you look at his targets you'll notice a player that gets most of his looks at home, and when the Colts win. His targets may also go down this year, but he still could have around 85 targets on the year, which is plenty to get top 10 TE production. A target is opportunity, and a reception is success. If Clark can work on his concentration he may get more yardage off of less targets.

Positives

• Has a lot of targets in the red zone
• Proved that he could be a top TE
• Can challenge defenses in long and short yardage situations

Negatives

• Inconsistent performer that makes a questionable every week starter
• Needs to have a better target to reception ratio
• Not a factor if the Colts are running away with the game

Final Thoughts

Dallas Clark had a breakthrough year in 2007, and has cemented himself as a very important part of the Colts offense. His numbers will be tough to duplicate this year, and thus his current ADP (TE6) may not give him much if any value. Clark does have 2 of his 3 fantasy playoff games at home, and his week 16 (fantasy championship) game against Jacksonville may be a huge game. Last season against Jacksonville he had 3 TDs in 2 regular season games. His TDs and targets are very much a risk to decline, and we have yet to see if Clark makes the most of his opportunities (targets). He could very well be a top 10 TE in fantasy football, but he is more likely to be near 10 than he is near 5. If other owners in your league pounce on him early, or bid him up in an auction, you may breathe a sigh of relief as you look for value at the TE position elsewhere.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

djcolts:
I think Clark is a very risky pick this year. Only Reggie Wayne is a sure thing among Colts receivers. What the pecking order after Wayne will be is a complete mystery because no one know what Marvin Harrison will be this year, and no one knows about who really will step up at the #4 WR spot or really the #2 TE spot (though Tamme is the most likely in terms of receptions - but since blocking is a big weakness...how much would he play).

rzrback77:
Dallas Clark prior to 07 had been a playoff stud that always failed to live up to the promise of this big post-season games. He definitely grabbed a bigger slice of the pie in Marvin's absense, but will that continue into 08. His ADP currently is TE6 and 69 overall, immediately after Cooley at 67 and well before Heap at 88 and Davis at 92. Let's look at his career stats. Notice that he has never played all 16 games.

03 - 10 gms 42 targets 29 catches (69%) for 340 yds 11.7 ypc and 1 TD TE25
04 - 15 gms 36 targets 25 catches (69%) for 423 yds 16.9 ypc and 5 TD TE11
05 - 15 gms 52 targets 37 catches (71%) for 488 yds 13.2 ypc and 4 TD TE13
06 - 12 gms 58 targets 30 catches (52%) for 367 yds 12.2 ypc and 4 TD TE15
07 - 15 gms 101 targets 58 catches (53%) for 616 yds 10.6 ypc and 11 TD TE5

Those last two percentage catch don't look so good. The outlook sure looks risky for the TE6 that he has only had over 60 targets once, only had over 500 yards once and only had over 5 TDs once. If the younger Colts WR catch on or if Marvin returns, does he lose opportunities? Will Domanick Rhodes be given a lot of those dump off routes instead of Clark? I think that is very likely.

Jon_Moore:
Clark is super talented, and on a great offense, but they've never used him before last year. Once Harrison went down, he was called upon and stepped up. He knew the offense, and was able to perform. Now, either Harrison returns, or Gonzalez steps into the WR2 role with a year of the offense under his belt. It certainly seems reasonable Clark returns to the guy from 2 years back.

Scooby1974:
It is hard to blame Clark for the low # of catches in light of the Colts having had Marvin (one of the best WRs in all of football over the past 5 years) and Wayne (like Housh, with #1 production in a #2 position), Edge (great pass catching back, now Addai and AGonz to compete with. Marvin has "hit the wall" so his 100+ catches (how many passes thrown to him in total?) are now up for grabs. I think Marv will get some, AGonz will get some, and Clark will continue to get "his".

Dallas Clark Projections