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Spotlight - WR Chris Chambers, San Diego Chargers

Posted on 6/13, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Mike Brown's Thoughts

Throughout his career, Chris Chambers has teased fantasy owners and NFL owners alike with his seemingly limitless potential. He's had a penchant for making the truly spectacular grab while at the same time suffering from what appeared to be a lack of focus at times. His bizarre trend of posting outstanding seasons alternating with underachieving campaigns every other year didn't help matters either. Every time he was thought to have 'broken out' he followed it up with a clunker. On the flip side, whenever people were down on him is when he seemed to really rise to the occasion and play his best football (at least statistically speaking).

That trend came to a bit of an end in 2007. While his on-field performance was far better than his numbers suggest, he still only managed to finish as the 29th best fantasy wideout. After six sub-par games with the Dolphins, he was dealt at the trading deadline to the San Diego Chargers for a second round pick. His presence in San Diego made an immediate impact on the field, but with players like LaDainian Tomlinson and Antonio Gates already in town, his numerical output left a lot to be desired.

On a week-to-week basis, Chambers' game was nearly flawless. While he wasn't seeing quite as many opportunities, he made the most out of the ones he did get. He continued to make the highlight reel catches, but he added a new facet to his game not seen in Miami - that of the sure-handed veteran. After years of complaints that he was one of the league's worst offenders when it came to dropped passes, Chambers was suddenly holding onto everything. Could it be that the quality of quarterback play in Miami was to blame all these years? Or was Chambers simply rounding into the form that all of his former coaches hoped he one day could be? Whatever the reason, he showed late last year that he was turning into a complete player.

He saved some of his best play for the end of the season. Including the three playoff games, Chambers scored three times in his final five games and put up 607 yards over his final eight (a pace that works out to 1,214 yards over a full sixteen games). Whether it was because Chambers was growing into the offense or because both Gates and Tomlinson were slowed by injuries remains to be seen, and it's what we'll attempt to explore below.

Positives

• Plays on one of the league's consistently best offenses. The baseline for what we can expect from San Diego would be the high point for a lot of other teams
• Chambers' talent has never been called into question. He's one of the most naturally gifted receivers in the league and has been a top-flight fantasy performer before
• The Chargers traded away a second round pick to acquire Chambers. It's highly unlikely that they would try to garner a full season's return on their significant investment

Negatives

• QB Philip Rivers is attempting to come back from a torn ACL. If he misses any preseason reps (or regular season games), the offense is not going to be anywhere near as effective. What's more, Chambers would lose valuable time with his passer
• Vincent Jackson really came on strong toward the end of last year and in the postseason. While it's assumed that Chambers is still "the guy" at the wide receiver spot, the Chargers believed in Jackson enough a year ago to make him "the guy" and could certainly do so again if Chambers' performance isn't up to par
• Last year could have been a bit of an aberration. After years of regularly dropping passes, Chambers suddenly caught everything in sight. Who's to say he won't slip back into old habits?
• Both LaDainian Tomlinson and Antonio Gates have made a lot of progress in their rehab from injuries. While that's a good thing for the Chargers, it could spell doom for Chambers as a possible starting caliber fantasy player. If those two are both healthy, Chambers is clearly the third passing option on a run-first team

Final Thoughts

With Tomlinson and Gates around (and seemingly getting healthy heading into training camp), no one is going to be relying on Chambers as their number one fantasy wide receiver. Well, no one who plans on contending for their league title, that is. But that doesn't mean his value is lost simply because he's got big-name Hall of Famers in front of him for catches.

He could do a lot of damage in the early part of the season as Gates works his way back into the mix. He'll also be relied upon as the third option on a team that, while it is run-first, also has a lot of success throwing the football. That's not to mention the possibility that Tomlinson, after the first significant injury of his career, could see a bit of a role reduction in the passing game. What's more, during Tomlinson's tenure in San Diego, the Chargers have never had a receiver with the talent of Chambers. It's entirely possible that Norv Turner is moving into more of his own system, one that features the wide receiver prominently downfield.

We aren't going to tell you to rely on Chambers for consistent production on a weekly basis, because it's too difficult to know when the big games will come. But as a solid WR2 or a great WR3, you could do a lot worse than him. And if anything should happen to Gates during his recovery, you'll have yourself a dynamite option that could play to the level of a WR1. Regardless of Gates' recovery, one must expect something of a drop from him if for no other reason than a late offseason surgery followed by many months of rehabilitation. It would be quite surprising to see him put up his typical numbers right out of the gate (no pun intended). Someone will need to pick up the slack in the meantime, and Chambers is in as good a position as any to do so.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

Sweet Love:
I really like Chambers a lot going into 2008. He will have his first training camp with his new team, and in 10 games last year, he had 555 yards and TDs with the Chargers (he had 970 yards total including his time in Miami). The Chargers have Gates to attract attention away from Chambers (the first time in his career he worked with another receiving threat), so I think he can have a year similar to his 05 campaign, when he went off for 82 receptions, 1118 yards and 11 TDs.

zdaddy:
I can't remember the last time the Chargers had a really productive WR. Do we have to go back as far as Andre' Miller. I have never thought of Chambers as anything special. Even in his best days in Miami, he had a bunch of mediocre games, with a huge one or two thrown in to boost his stats. Most of the fantasy points from the Chargers will still go to LT2 and Gates, leaving only left overs for Chambers. I see 58/862 and 5 TDs. I wouldn't count on him for anything more that a WR3.

Weiner Dog:
Arguably, the best "sell high" of all #1 WR's in the NFL. For whatever reason, the guy is still viewed as a Top-30 WR despite the following:

1) Will share receptions with Gates, LT, VJax and (soon-to-be) Craig Davis.
2) Did not eclipse 100 yards receiving or have more than 5 catches in a game
after he was traded to the Chargers after Week 6.
3) Had 50 or fewer yards in 1/2 of his games as a Charger.
3) Only had 4 TD's in his 10 games as a Charger.

As VJax becomes the #1 WR (...and #2 option behind Gates), I believe Chambers will start to fade slightly. Chambers best chance of succeeding will come at the expense of Gates' foot injury. If Gates returns healthy, I view Chambers as nothing more than a WR3-4.

The Man with the Plan:
Philip Rivers is the best quarterback that Chris Chambers has received passes from. That's not saying a lot but I guess it could count for something. He put up okay numbers but that was later on when Gates was a non-factor. He doesn't have the best hands (or good ones for that matter) so unless he gets a lot of targets (unlikely with Gates and LT around) he'll disappoint like he usually does.

wdcrob:
Catch percentage is 100% useless as a measure of WR quality. Very few, if any, WRs consistently out/under perform their QB's completion to the team's WRs by more than a couple percentage points (i.e. a couple receptions across the entire season). And almost all exceptions relate to the WR's role on the team - not his quality.

Miami QBs' completion percentage to WRs 2002-2007: 916/1821 = 50.3%
Chris Chambers' career catch percentage in Miami 2002-2007: 392/809 = 48.5%

Philip Rivers' completion percentage to WRs in 2007: 113/206 = 54.8%
Chris Chambers' catch percentage on passes from Rivers: 44/78 = 56.4%

Did Chambers get better? No. But his QB did.

Chris Chambers Projections